Vegas Play of the Day: Syracuse at Louisville

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Nov. 23, 2019 | 2 a.m.

The sixth season of the annual Play of the Day betting competition between the Sun's sports staff is now under way, effective July 1.

Bankrolls start at $10,000 for each of the four participants, with the objective to increase it as much as possible over the next year. The minimum daily wager is $300, with a $200 penalty assessed for failing to place a bet on an assigned day.

Past winners are Case Keefer in 2018-19 and 2017-2018, Ray Brewer in 2016-2017 and 2015-2016, and Taylor Bern in 2014-2015.

Syracuse moneyline plus-280 at Louisville: $350 to win $980

Maybe I'm getting too aggressive with an opportunity to take the lead in this contest, but seeing a route to get there without risking a large amount was too much to pass up.

Louisville is a 9.5-point favorite in this game, but I don't think they should be any more than minus-3. That means the Orange shouldn't be any more than plus-130 on the money line.

That means this price offers immense value. Louisville is a great story, having gone from one of the worst Power Five conference teams a year ago to bowl eligible this season.

Narrative shouldn't trump numbers, however, and that might be what's happened here. There's nothing to indicate the Cardinals have been this much better than the Orange to begin with, and now the latter is on the upswing. Syracuse returned to health off a bye week last Saturday in a big way, blowing out Duke 49-6 as a 9.5-point underdog.

I was on Syracuse in that spot too and figured it was one-off, the big win likely causing the market to correct. Never did I expect the Orange to come back every bit as undervalued this week.

Let's go Syracuse, deliver me to a lead in the Play of the Day.

Current Standings: Grimala (10-4, $10,505), Keefer (18-13-2, $10,005), Emerson (9-13, $8,030), Brewer (8-9, $7,735)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.