Vegas pick’em: NFL week 13 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Nov. 28, 2019 | 2 a.m.

The game changes this week. Handicapping the NFL regular season often feels separated by three phases.

There's the start of the year when bettors are mostly acting on their personal opinions of teams borne out of preseason research and prior performance. A balancing act takes over midseason as gamblers must weigh their personal hunches with a small sample of early returns.

Thanksgiving, after every team has gone on its bye week, is the unofficial start of the final stage. For the last five weeks, it's all about correctly interpreting a fair amount of data to determine where teams are headed.

Price-shopping and market entry become even more vital to success, which is part of the reason this column always runs early. Let's make beating the closing line a priority this holiday season.  

Read below for picks on all of week 13's games, separated into three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas. The record for the year picking every game stands at 100-75-1 after a 7-7 showing last week.  

Plays (29-16-1)

Dallas Cowboys minus-6.5 vs. Buffalo Bills Now is the time to concurrently buy low on Dallas and sell high on Buffalo. The Bills, which have an overrated defense to begin with, are yet to encounter an offense anywhere near as efficient as a Cowboys unit averaging an NFL-leading 6.6 yards per play. This number should be on the other side of 7.

Cincinnati Bengals plus-3.5 vs. New York Jets This line only shifted a half-point with the news that Andy Dalton would retake his job and replace Ryan Finley as the Bengals' starting quarterback. That's not enough, because even though Dalton has become a punching bag of jokes, he's a lot more efficient and proven than Finley.

Los Angeles Chargers minus-2.5 at Denver Broncos The expected return of safety Derwin James is no minor factor considering he graded out as one of the top defensive players in the league last year. The Chargers should be healthier all over the roster coming out of a bye week, meaning this price could reasonably sit higher.

Los Angeles Rams minus-3 at Arizona Cardinals The Rams' 45-6 loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football might end up a blessing in disguise considering it shaved a point off of this spread. Kyler Murray is not Lamar Jackson — not yet at least. On a personnel basis, this remains a mismatch in the Rams' favor.

Pittsburgh Steelers plus-2 vs. Cleveland Browns The Steelers were able to stay competitive with the Browns in the now-infamous Thursday Night Football matchup two weeks ago despite Mason Rudolph throwing four interceptions. With the same turnover problems unlikely to repeat — Devlin "Duck" Hodges appears to be an upgrade over Rudolph — and a clear defensive advantage, Pittsburgh should win outright.

Leans (37-29)

Philadelphia Eagles minus-9 at Miami Dolphins Get in before this spread hits double digits all across the board. As long as they get marginally healthier on offense, the Eagles are a buy-low team considering they have the easiest remaining schedule in the league according to Football Outsiders after facing the eighth toughest so far.  

Indianapolis Colts minus-2.5 vs. Tennessee Titans Tennessee is somewhat quietly one of the hottest teams in the NFL, but with the number coming off of 3, taking a leap of faith with one of the best coaching staffs looks awfully tempting. Indianapolis coach Frank Reich has even enjoyed extra time to prepare off of a 20-17 loss on Thursday Night Football as 3.5-point underdogs to Houston.

Atlanta Falcons plus-7 vs. New Orleans Saints The market may have committed the rare under-reaction here. This line is right around where it would have been two weeks ago before the Falcons pummeled the Saints 26-9 as 13.5-point road underdogs. They've continued to perform at a decent level since then and should be getting more respect at home on a short week.

Guesses (34-28)

Washington Redskins plus-10 at Carolina Panthers The lookahead line on this game was only Carolina minus-9, and week 12 provided no reason to add the extra point. The Panthers didn't play as well as the score makes it look in a 30-27 loss to the Saints as 10-point underdogs considering they were outgained by 2 yards per play.

Chicago Bears minus-3.5 at Detroit Lions This line has moved way too much to confidently back the Bears — it's as high as Chicago minus-4.5 after opening as low as Detroit minus-2 — but the Lions' offense is going to be a chore to watch. Even if starting David Blough is avoided and Jeff Driskel plays, his hamstring injury will limit his mobility, which might be his only asset.

Kansas City Chiefs minus-10 vs. Oakland Raiders The Raiders' minus-56 point differential is a lot more telling than their relatively ballyhooed 6-5 straight-up record. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has picked apart their defense in all three meetings, and there's not much to indicate this time will be any different.

San Francisco 49ers plus-6 at Baltimore Ravens If any team can devise a way to slow the Lamar Jackson phenomenon, it's the 49ers, which have been both schematically and athletically brilliant on defense. That being said, going against Jackson is a torturous thought at the moment.   

New England Patriots minus-3 at Houston Texans All the nervous clamor surrounds New England's offense, but Houston's defense is the truly horrendous unit in this matchup. The Texans rank 26^th in defense by Football Outsiders' DVOA and should present an opportunity for the Patriots' stuck-in-the-mud offense to finally move forward.

Seattle Seahawks minus-3 vs. Minnesota Vikings I have a sneaking suspicion that Minnesota winds up the best team in the NFC but traveling East to West is always a challenge, let alone for a primetime game at CenturyLink Field. Seattle may deserve an extra boost for homefield advantage this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars pick'em vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The move from minus-1 to pick'em is highly insignificant, and yet, it's the only reason I'm forced to pick the Jaguars. I made the line the same as the opener, Jacksonville minus-1, meaning there's ever-so-slight value on the home team.

New York Giants plus-6.5 vs. Green Bay Packers A perfect number, it's hard to know what to do with this game. The Packers look like a bet-against team going forward, however, considering they're regarded as a contender despite posting a ghastly minus-0.6 net yard per play so far this season.  

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.