Five sports, five bets: What to wager on this weekend

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Aug. 8, 2020 | 2 a.m.

The first future bet from the five sports, five bets column concluded earlier this week and gave a boost to the bottom line.

In the premiere of this space, during the throes of quarantine in early June, I put a wager on the Calgary Flames to defeat the Winnipeg Jets in the NHL’s qualifying series. Calgary wrapped up the best-of-five series in four games Thursday evening in Edmonton and now awaits figuring out the identity of its next opponent in the western conference quarterfinals.

Meanwhile, the column is shifting to the NHL's eastern conference bubble in Toronto for today's selection.. The betting board is full for another week, but I'm making sure to include both the NHL and NBA as the leagues continue their restarts.

Read below for this week’s five picks. Records are attached individually by league with the monetary figure calculating the success of a hypothetical bettor placing a $100 wager on every pick that’s run in the column. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time.

PGA Tour (3-1-1, $150.82): Patrick Cantlay minus-135 vs. Kevin Streelman in third round of PGA Championship at Circa Sports

There's a major discrepancy in tee times this week at Harding Park for the first major of the year.

Golfers that start their rounds in the morning are at a major advantage, as the wind slowly starts to pick up off the coast towards the afternoon and wreaks havoc. It's something to keep in mind when looking at matchups between golfers that aren't paired together, and a major bonus in this particular matchup.

Cantlay is better than Streelman to begin with and would be a bargain at this price regardless of when the two were playing. The 28-year-old UCLA graduate should be about minus-160 over the veteran as a base price with some extra tax added considering he's teeing off at 8:50 a.m., more than three hours before Streelman comes out at an inopportune time.

Cantlay had a disastrous putting performance in Thursday's first round and barely made the cut at 1-over par, nine strokes off the lead, so competing for the win is pretty much out of the question this weekend. But it's a major; Cantlay isn't going to give up.

He showed flashes of his best stuff on Friday, and his best stuff is better than 90 percent of the golfers in the field.

NBA (1-0, $90.90): Los Angeles Clippers vs. Portland Trail Blazers under 234 points at BetMGM

The Blazers are surging in the NBA's Orlando bubble and threatening to steal the No. 8 seed in the western conference behind a now-healthy roster. It's the way they're doing it that's somewhat surprising though.

They aren't flying up and down the floor as much as their final scores may indicate. Instead, their ascent has come behind a hyper-efficient offense and much-improved defense rating, no doubt spurred by the return of Jusuf Nurkic.

Portland's pace is also down from the regular season, though it's been hard to tell against attack-minded opponents like Houston and Memphis. This should be a different stylistic matchup entirely, as the Clippers have been more methodical and reliant on defense. They're not going to give the Blazers enough space to hit 59 percent of their three pointers like Portland did Thursday in a 125-115 win over Denver.

And the Blazers improved defensive intensity should also limit the Clippers. It's hard to pick a side here — the Clippers are favored by 3.5 points — but look for something like a 113-110 game that comes down to the final few possessions.  

NHL (2-1, $118.33): Tampa Bay Lightning minus-130 vs. Philadelphia Flyers at Circa Sports

Although there are several great NHL teams this season, one stands alone at the top. It's the Tampa Bay Lightning.

If the Lightning are at their best, and so far they have been with wins over the Capitals and Bruins in the eastern conference round-robin, then they're bound to blaze their way to the Stanley Cup Final that has eluded them the past couple years. They should be a bigger favorite in the second of today's second of two round-robin games that will determine a No. 1 seed.

Yes, the Flyers also took down the Capitals and Bruins but their statistical profile looks quite a bit behind the Lightning's. Philadelphia has given up more high-danger chances than they've manufactured since the NHL's restart and have largely been bailed out by a pair of strng goaltending performances.

That's going to be harder to rely upon against the Lightning's attack. Tampa Bay is eventually going to be priced too high to back once everyone catches on to how strong it really is, so take advantage in the meantime and ride the Lightning.

NASCAR (4-4, $76): Ryan Blaney minus-110 vs. Joey Logano at Circa Sports

The market is pricing former Cup champion Joey Logano likes he’s in prime form even though he’s been far off of his best ever since the season restart.

He’s particularly struggled on tracks like Michigan International Speedway, where NASCAR stages races on back-to-back days Saturday and Sunday. Logano drew the pole for Saturday’s race, further inflating his numbers.

The truth is his Penske teammate Blaney has been both the better driver and had the faster car recently. Blaney will start farther back in 11^th, which is somewhat of a detriment in a place like Michigan where passing won’t come easily.

Logano has excelled on these tracks in the past but he encountered issues in all three combined races at Pocono and Indianapolis last month. At the moment, Blaney is on the way up while Logano is on the way down.

UFC (4-4, -$179): Justin Jaynes plus-110 vs. Gavin Tucker at BetMGM

There’s a stigma around fighters changing weight classes and a tendency from many gamblers to blindly bet against them. That one-size-fits-all approach is a mistake.

It sometimes plays no factor, and it shouldn’t here as Jaynes drops to featherweight to take on Gavin Tucker. Jaynes, a local fighter out of Xtreme Couture, fought at lightweight in his UFC debut — a first-round TKO over Frank Camacho — but he was a featherweight before that.

He’ll be comfortable in the division against Tucker, who typically uses his strength to bully smaller opponents with his wrestling. But he’s not bigger than Jaynes, who’s far more dangerous and should have a major edge on the feet.

There will be some anxiety if the fight goes to the scorecards — the above record is weighed down by some questionable decisions — but at a plus-price, there’s no getting around a play on Jaynes.    

Lifetime column record: 21-15-1, $396.06

Previous, pending bets: NC Dinos will not win KBO Series at minus-230; Indianapolis Colts over 9 wins at minus-125; Kiwoom Heroes to win KBO Series at plus-600; New York Jets to win the AFC East at plus-900; Rakuten Golden Eagles to win Japan Championship Series at plus-500; Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East at minus-110; Houston Astros to win the World Series at 12-to-1; Denver Broncos under 8 wins at minus-120

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.