Weekend wagers: Bets on the Preakness, PGA Championship and more

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, May 21, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The Kentucky Derby was a disaster. Let’s try again with the Preakness Stakes.

The second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown goes off at approximately 4:10 p.m. this afternoon from Pimlico in Baltimore. The Weekend Wagers column had three horses to win the Derby at the start of the month but was nowhere close to nabbing Rich Strike for the win.

The unheralded colt was available at as high as 200-to-1 odds to win locally, though he went off the board at only 80-to-1 at Churchill Downs. There will not be an upset that monumental in the Preakness considering there are only nine horses in the race.

Rich Strike is not among them, as his team decided to hold him out in preparation for the Belmont Stakes on June 11.

Las Vegas sports books’ head-to-head horse matchups are even in shorter supply for the Preakness than they were for the Kentucky Derby with Circa Sports the only place they were on the board as of Friday evening. I dug through them to find one play for Weekend Wagers, and also placed one outright below.

Read on for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (1-2, $292.50): Tony Finau -120 head-to-head in third round of PGA Championship vs. Denny McCarthy (BetMGM)

$240 to win $200

No, this isn’t the most exciting way to bet “moving day” at golf’s second major considering both golfers sit at 1-over par — 10 shots off the lead. But, for column purposes, I figure it’s best to stay away from the top anyway as we sweat out last week’s outright bet on Justin Thomas who sits as the second favorite at sports books through two rounds behind leader Will Zalatoris. More importantly, this is the best matchup available. As a long, wide course, Southern Hills fits Finau’s game perfectly. The same isn’t true for McCarthy, who’s one of, if not, the best putter on tour. But this is far from a putting contest as Finau’s length off the tee and irons should be a more valuable strength. Finau didn’t play well in round 2, but still posted a respectable 2-over par. Look for him to threaten a backdoor top-10 finish by Sunday.   

Horse Racing (1-3, -$260): Simplification 10-to-1 to win Preakness (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$50 to win $500

Do I expect Simplification to win the Preakness? Not really. Do I believe he deserves to be priced fourth in the nine-horse field behind Epicenter, Early Voting and Secret Oath? Probably. Do I think he should be priced this far behind the favored trio? Not a chance. These odds should be at least cut in half. Epicenter is at Even money because he showed terrific speed at the Kentucky Derby, but Simplification wasn’t far behind and was also on the superfecta ticket. Simplification finished fourth to Epicenter’s second despite having to overcome a rougher trip where he got pushed outside. He should be an even bigger factor at Pimlico this afternoon, and the best bet on the board in Las Vegas at these odds.

Horse Racing (1-3, -$260): Early Voting -120 head-to-head vs. Secret Oath (Circa Sports)

$180 to win $150

Unlike Simplification in the Derby, Secret Oath saw everything go perfectly in his Kentucky Oaks win at Churchill Downs two weeks ago. That usually doesn’t happen twice in a row. Early Voting has a big rest advantage, as trainer Chad Brown — who won the Preakness five years ago with Cloud Computing — held him out of the Derby with eyes on the Preakness. He believes this race is better suited for Early Voting, which is why the colt should be considered a clear second choice to Epicenter instead of available at virtually the same odds as Secret Oath. Early Voting is worth considering to bet at +520 to win at Circa, but I’ll just officially roll with Simplification for the column and get exposure via this matchup.

MLB (5-1, $690): Atlanta Braves -128 at Miami Marlins (Caesars/William Hill)

$256 to win $200

This line implies some skepticism that Braves starter Kyle Wright can maintain his hot start to the season after showing some cracks in his last few outings. I don’t buy it. Wright has been the Braves’ best pitcher this year, and it might just be a case of him finally fully tapping into the potential that made him the No. 5 overall draft pick in 2017. At the least, he should give Atlanta a clear edge on the mound over Miami’s Elieser Hernández. Atlanta has underachieved off its World Series championship but still has a more potent offense than Miami. The Marlins have been undervalued by the betting market for a lot of the year, but now it’s flipped. They’re being given too much credit in this spot.

USFL (3-2, $155.50): Michigan Panthers +7 vs. Birmingham Stallions (Caesars/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

Let’s take another stab at fading the Stallions despite their 30-17 win over the Philadelphia Stars as 6.5-point favorites contributing to last week’s losing column. Birmingham has played well, but its statistical profile just isn’t one that matches its 5-0 record. The Stallions are above average both offensively and defensively, but not at the top of the league on either side of the ball. Michigan, on the other hand, has the USFL’s top defense according Pro Football Focus’s expected points added per play metric. The Panthers also have a +7 point differential on the year. The only reason they’re 1-4 overall is because of some creative ways they’ve found to blow games. Some positive regression should be coming their way, and they should have enough to stay within this large number.

NBA (2-4, -$420): Miami Heat +7 at Boston Celtics (STN Sports)

$220 to win $200

The popular opinion after Boston’s blowout Game 2 win in Miami seems to be that the Celtics are going to win the title and the Heat won’t be able to provide as much as a speedbump. I also believe Boston wins the series, and likely the championship, but let’s cool off just a little bit. Miami is no walkover. The Heat have defensive looks that have thwarted the Celtics all season. Just because Boston navigated it in Game 2 doesn’t mean it’s going to do the same every game. The Celtics also hit 50% of their 3-pointers in that game, a rate that’s not going to continue. Boston -5.5 would be a fair line for Game 3, leaving enough of an edge to back Miami.

NASCAR (5-4, $20): Christopher Bell -120 head-to-head vs. Kurt Busch in NASCAR All-Star Race (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $200

Kurt Busch won last week at Kansas Speedway, and while this weekend’s Texas Motor Speedway may look like a similar track based on their identical 1.5-mile lengths, it’s not really. Texas features far less tire wear, and Busch is at his best on high tire-wear tracks like Kansas. The All-Star Race is notoriously difficult to handicap, but this looks like the perfect storm to fade a driver at the height of his market perception while taking someone else like Bell who’s been ramping up in speed lately. Bell ran well in two races at Texas last year, including a third-place finish in October.

NHL (3-4, $0): Florida Panthers -112 at Tampa Bay Lightning (SuperBook)

$224 to win $200

Many are ready to call this series with the two-time defending champions holding a 2-0 lead heading back to Tampa Bay. I’m not. It’s going to be tough for Florida to come back, but it’s been the most efficient team in the NHL all season. The Panthers have too much firepower to be counted out. They held an expected-goals edge in each of the first two games against the Lightning too so it’s not as if they’re getting skated off the ice. Florida closed around -170 in each of the first two games in the series, so this is a rather large adjustment for home-ice advantage. It’s too large, in my opinion.

Weekend wagers column year to date: 28-33, -$327

Weekend betting column all-time: 370-363-1, $6,191.43

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); New Orleans Breakers 5-to-1 to win USFL title ($200 to win $1,000); Justin Thomas 18-to-1 to win PGA Championship

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or