Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Analysis:

5 reasons to be hopeful despite heartbreaking Golden Knights loss

Vegas Golden Knights vs Colorado Avalanche

Wade Vandervort

Colorado Avalanche left wing J.T. Compher (37) celebrates after scoring against Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Robin Lehner (90) during an NHL hockey game at T-Mobile Arena, Monday, May 10, 2021.

Knights Fall to Colorado Avalanche, 2-1

Colorado Avalanche left wing J.T. Compher (37) scores a goal against Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Robin Lehner (90) during the third period of an NHL hockey game Monday, May 10, 2021, in Las Vegas. Launch slideshow »

Golden Knights coach Pete DeBoer took an innocent, legitimate question about the fatigue of his short-handed team late in Monday night’s loss to the Avalanche as a personal affront.

Vegas was clearly, and understandably, drained from becoming the first NHL team in more than a decade to play with only 15 skaters, directly leading to a 2-1 loss in the biggest game of the season so far. DeBoer just wouldn’t acknowledge the obvious.

“If you guys want to talk about negatives tonight, go ahead,” DeBoer said. “I don’t have any for you.”

DeBoer took one more innocent, legitimate question about a botched line change that led to Colorado’s game-winning, third-period goal before refusing to answer and abruptly ending his news conference.

Much like his team deserved a pass for how well they played considering the circumstances, the typically even-keeled DeBoer should be granted one of his own for minorly losing his cool.

Playoff hockey is emotional and with all that was at stake on Monday — a chance for the Golden Knights to clinch the Presidents’ Trophy for the NHL’s best regular-season record and the West Division title — this was as close as a regular-season game will ever get to playoff hockey. DeBoer’s crankiness is no more irrational than the segment of the Golden Knights’ fan base surely panicking with the team no longer controlling its own destiny for a No. 1 seed with one game to go.

Everyone just needs to take a deep breath and reset. The Golden Knights are going to be just fine; the loss to the Avalanche is far from fatal.

Here are five reasons to be hopeful despite the setback.

1. The Golden Knights’ goals go beyond finishing with the NHL’s best record and winning the West division

“The Presidents’ Trophy is great, but it’s not the banner we really want to hang.”

That was a guaranteed quote — probably by multiple players in some form or fashion — if the Golden Knights had beaten the Avalanche on Monday. It’s Stanley Cup or bust for the Golden Knights, and it has been for the last two seasons.

Regardless of whether they finish first or second in the West standings, they’ve put themselves in position to contend for a championship. They’ve proven they’re one of the top threats to do so.

Nothing in one or two games at the end of the regular season is changing that.  

2. A first-round series with the Minnesota Wild is not a given

Losing out on a couple achievements by the narrowest of margins is disappointing, but matching up with Minnesota would be the real bummer.

The Wild are the one Western Conference team that has consistently given the Golden Knights trouble for four years now. Minnesota is 10-5-1 all-time against Vegas, including, most important, 5-1-2 this season.

Vegas vs. Minnesota is indeed now the most likely first-round matchup, but it’s far from a certainty. The Golden Knights need to beat the Sharks on Wednesday night, when they’ll have a fuller complement of players, and root for the Los Angeles Kings to take one of two against the Avalanche.

The latter may sound like a stretch, but maybe it shouldn’t. The Kings have beaten the Avalanche once this year despite Colorado closing anywhere from a -220 to -240 favorite in all six meetings.

Let’s generously boost the line to -300 for the final two games since the Kings have nothing left to play for. That still only implies less than a 60% probability that Colorado prevails in both games. Again, likely but no lock. 

There’s little doubt a first-round matchup with the No. 4 seed St. Louis Blues is more appealing, but it’s no foregone conclusion that the Golden Knights will instead get the No. 3 seed Wild.

3. A first-round loss to the Minnesota Wild is not a given — in fact, it’s unlikely

Speaking of probabilities, there’s not a statistical model or betting line in the world that will have the Wild as a favorite in a seven-game series against the Golden Knights.

It’s difficult not to get too caught up in series history, but the truth is, it really doesn’t mean much. Even a fairly significant eight-game set between Vegas and Minnesota this season, more than double how often the two teams would play in a normal year, is too small of a sample to draw sweeping conclusions. There’s going to be a lot of noise.

Goal differential and expected goal percentage are more predictive than wins and losses anyway, and the Golden Knights don’t look nearly as bad against the Wild by those measures. Goals are 24-24 on the year in the eight games, but the Golden Knights have the higher expected goal share, per naturalstattrick.com.

Vegas can beat Minnesota. Scratch that, Vegas should beat Minnesota.

4. Alex Pietrangelo is peaking

A big part of the reason for Vegas’ salary-cap predicament on Monday night was the $8.8 million per year contract it doled out to prized free-agent defenseman Alex Pietrangelo this offseason. It was a contract that may have looked suspect for parts of this season.

It’s starting not to anymore. Pietrangelo is suddenly looking like the game-changer that was promised when he came over from St. Louis.

He followed a two-point game on Saturday by looking like Vegas’ best player on Monday — and not just because he scored its only goal by pouncing on a rebound to beat the otherwise-impenetrable Philipp Grubauer. He was also a menace defensively, almost singlehandedly ruining one of Colorado’s two power-play opportunities. 

It’s no secret that DeBoer leans heavily on his best defensemen, especially in the playoffs. Pietrangelo’s impressive 29 minutes on Monday proves he’s up to the task if not finally fully settled in with his new team.

5. Vegas gives Colorado all sorts of problems

DeBoer was 100% right about one thing in his postgame news conference: Vegas deserved better against Colorado.

Despite everything stacked against the Golden Knights, they outplayed an Avalanche team that has been the NHL’s most efficient group all season. The shots on goal were a staggering 29-13 in Vegas’ favor going into the third period, and a still-impressive 37-21 at the end of the game.

The Golden Knights and Avalanche finished their season series deadlocked at four wins apiece with Vegas holding a +1 goal differential.

No one else put up that strong of an effort against Colorado. No one else can put up that strong of an effort against Colorado.

There’s a compelling case to be made that Colorado and Vegas are the NHL’s two most complete teams. Anything can happen, sure, but in all likelihood, they’ll be meeting again for a seven-game series in a few weeks.

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