Monday, Jan. 17, 2022 | 2 a.m.
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The international community is in danger of collapsing into chaos as the global population grows more unequal in wealth, access to adequate health care and the effects of climate change, says a new report by the World Economic Forum.
In the 17th edition of its Global Risks Report, the WEF says the widening gulf of inequality, which the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified, is fueling a rise in tensions and resentments both within and between nations that increase the chances of instability and volatility. This “social cohesion erosion” is the biggest threat to the global population, says the report, which is based on insights collected from nearly 1,000 international experts and more than 12,000 national leaders.
“The world has been through a lot together, but we are not recovering together: 2022 starts with half of the population still unvaccinated and an uneven economic rebound that could split the global economy,” Emilio Franco, WEF’s head of global risks, told Al Jazeera. “This is why our Global Risks Report warns of global divergence as the main risk; it will create tensions domestically and abroad at a time when societies and countries need to work together to restore confidence and build future resilience.”
Looking at various areas of inequality, there’s every reason to believe the report is accurate.
For instance, only 6% of the population of the world’s poorest 52 nations has been vaccinated against COVID-19, compared with nearly 70% in high-income nations.
Climate change is creating disruptions in food and water supplies in several regions around the world, leaving populations — many in poorer countries — at growing risk of hunger and lack of access to potable water. We’re already seeing migrations brought on by global warming, sparking anti-immigrant tensions in nations where those migrants are entering or passing through. And more population movements are inevitable minus significant progress in the fight against climate change.
Nor are these disruptions unique to the developing world. In California, entire communities have seen their municipal well dry up, in Nevada the drought woes will pit us in sharp competition with our neighboring states in less than three years. And climate crisis-driven migrations in the U.S. are already taking place as citizens flee western wildfires, eastern floods and southern severe storms.
The report also warns that disruptions in the supply chain, inflation and protectionist trade policies are steering the global economy onto shaky ground. The WEF forecasts that developing nations will fall 5.5% below their pre-pandemic gross domestic growth projections by 2024, while advanced economies will exceed those projections by 0.9%.
These and other factors will force 51 million more people into extreme poverty, as compared with pre-pandemic trending.
In a global economy, the woes of one segment of the world quickly ripple across the planet. Today, the availability of goods in the U.S. is constrained by closed factories a world away, which helps to drive domestic inflation.
Faced with this bleak picture, 84% of the Global Risk Report’s respondents said they were concerned about the course that civilization is on.
“Only 16% of respondents feel positive and optimistic about the outlook for the world, and just 11% believe the global recovery will accelerate,” the report reads. “Most respondents instead expect the next three years to be characterized by either consistent volatility and multiple surprises or fractured trajectories that will separate relative winners and losers.”
These pressures threaten to reduce the cooperation needed between nations to address the very issues that are driving inequality — climate change, the response to the pandemic, the global economy, etc. — the report says.
The WEF report should serve as a bright-red flag to the leaders of advanced nations, who face the main burden of resolving the issues that are driving the deterioration of social cohesion.
Even the wealthy in the world must realize that civilization itself is at risk if we don’t take enlightened actions for all of humanity. That means taking meaningful steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and curb global warming, providing vaccinations and other basic health care needs to developing nations, and adopting public policy to reduce the wealth gap.
These actions are critical toward rebuilding trust and nurturing cooperation between nations, which are the key to resolving the issues driving this existential threat.
Meanwhile, citizens in the U.S. and other advanced nations should choose leaders who are willing to address issues like these that go well beyond our immediate considerations and apply to the global community.
Work on these matters can’t wait. It’s time to get moving: Civilization is straining at the seams and is on the verge of flying apart unless wealthy nations shoulder their responsibility to address the factors underlying our global tensions.
