Who will perform the best at the next four tracks?

By Mike Smith (contact)

Thursday, Aug. 13, 2009 | 8:36 p.m.

I’ve said before that when it comes to Sprint Cup racing, I try to avoid making predictions. This is mainly for two reasons. First, I’m not good at it. Second, racing is too unpredictable to predict the future.

But as I was recently thinking about the four remaining races until the Chase, I began to wonder which of the three drivers just outside of the top 12 in points could have the best chance to make it into the Chase for the Sprint Cup

The next four races are at Michigan, Bristol, Atlanta and Richmond. Kyle Busch, Brian Vickers and Clint Bowyer are all within 100 points of the 12th position.

Out of these three drivers, the ones who have won on these tracks this season and in the three prior seasons are Busch and Bowyer. Busch has four wins. He won at Bristol in 2009 and 2007; Atlanta in 2008 and Richmond this year. Bowyer has one win at Richmond in 2008. Brian Vickers has no wins.

Busch, who is currently 13th in points, is only 58 points behind the 12th-place driver Matt Kenseth. His smaller margin alone, when compared to Vickers and Bowyer, is probably enough to say he’s the safe bet to make the Chase out of these drivers. His number of wins at these tracks, as opposed to the other drivers, only makes that prospect seem more possible.

So how do the drivers currently in the top-12 spots fare at these tracks over this time period? Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson each have the most wins with five apiece. Next in line is Kurt Busch, who has three wins. Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne each have two wins and Tony Stewart and Mark Martin each have one win.

This week's StockcarToon

Purchase your copy of "Nuts for Racing"