Las Vegas mayor’s polls show The Family dynasty poised to continue, but second in primary up for grabs

Sunday, March 6, 2011 | 1:16 p.m.

We now have three polls to analyze in the mayor’s race, although one of them is a month old (SGS for local Realtors, posted elsewhere on this blog). It looks as if Carolyn Goodman, Mayor Oscar Goodman’s wife, is a near-lock to win the primary while the battle for the June runoff is between Clark County Commissioners Larry Brown and Chris Giunchigliani. Brown has retained the estimable Jim Ferrence to run the show as well as a raft of consultants (he once thought he was anointed until the Goodmans spoiled his fun) while Giunchigliani is relying on her husband, Gary Gray, who knows how to win low-turnout battles.

The numbers:

Realtors/SGS/Feb. 9-13/300/6 percent MOE

Goodman—30

Brown—17

Giunchigliani—11

Ross—7

RJ/Magellan/lastweek/600/4 percent MOE

Goodman—37

Brown—18

Giunchigliani—12

Ross—7

Giunchigliani/Benenson/Feb.19-21/400/5 percent MOE

Goodman—32

Giunchigliani—18

Brown—15

Ross—9

Some points:

----The polls are remarkably similar in their findings. Goodman has about a 2-to-1 lead in all of them and Brown and Giunchigliani are fighting for second.

----Benenson probably has the best reputation of any of the firms. SGS is used by the Realtors across the country and Magellan is run by Marvin Longabaugh, a local attorney. It is curious – and telling – that the Review-Journal is using the much cheaper Longabaugh than its national firm of Mason-Dixon after many years. There was scathing criticism of the firm’s performance during the Reid-Angle Senate contest.

---If the polls are to be believed, entrepreneur Victor Chaltiel’s expensive TV buy has done little for him. He barely registers in any of these polls (ADDENDUM: although only the RJ's was done so as to absorb the full impact of the "V for Victor" buy). And Councilman Steve Ross will need something dramatic to occur to make it to second.

----This is still a difficult race to poll. And, as Mark Mellman reinforced during last year's Senate race, your poll is only as good as your model of what the electorate will look like. These results could be skewed by a very low turnout of 50,000 voters – although the increasing media attention (televised debates during the next two weekends leading to the start of early voting in less than two weeks) may drive it up a bit over the norm. Still, it’s hard to argue Goodman has a solid lead and is a heavy favorite to win the primary, although unlikely to get the 50 percent plus one vote required to win outright in April.