Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Day One of early voting by the numbers: Enthusiasm gap?

Only 2,351 people voted in Clark County on the first day (out of 14) of early voting, 1,325 of those in Las Vegas for that heated mayor’s race – about a half of 1 percent in both universes.

Add in mail ballots returned – 3,336 in the county and 1,699 in the city of Las Vegas – and the totals are about 1.3 percent in both jurisdictions.

For perspective, two years ago, a total of 22,942 voted early – and the first day saw 1,909 people vote. In 2007, the numbers were similar – 25,000 voted and 1,798 on the first day.

Two years ago, the overall turnout was 10.5 percent and less than 4 percent came on Election Day. And in 2007, the turnout was 15 percent and only 6 percent on Election Day.

So not much to tell yet, and extrapolation here is dangerous but:

If 20,000 vote early in the city of Las Vegas – and that seems reasonable – it seems unlikely that the 50,000 overall turnout estimated by some will occur. Even if the combined totals with absentee ballots were to reach 25,000 or so, it will not get to 50,000.

One last point, even though the mayor’s race is nonpartisan, some candidates (notably Victor Chaltiel) have appealed to the Republican electorate, which is only about a third of city voters (Democrats are just under half).

The numbers:

Early:

Democrats: 654

Republicans 494

Mail:

Democrats: 823

Republicans: 704

Totals:

Democrats: 1,477 (1.4 percent)

Republicans: 1,198 (1.7 percent)

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