Final Four Betting: Picks and Props

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, April 1, 2011 | 9:25 p.m.

One team has the best player, while the other has the best group of players. Another team’s path has been exciting, while their opponents’ route has been emphatic.

Give me the better group and the team who has put on more impressive performances. In other words, Kentucky and Virginia Commonwealth are this blog’s Final Four picks.

Kentucky is a 2-point favorite in most Las Vegas sports books in its national semifinal against Connecticut Saturday. VCU comes in as 3-point underdogs against Butler in the afternoon’s first contest from Reliant Stadium in Houston.

Here’s to expecting two Eastern border states to meet for the national championship Monday night. That’s something that will happen regardless of who wins the first game, with Butler in Indianapolis and VCU from Richmond, if Kentucky advances.

And Kentucky should have no problem. Not only has Kentucky beaten the best competition on its way to the Final Four — No. 5 seeded Wisconsin, No. 1 seeded Ohio State and No. 2 seeded North Carolina — but its peaked while doing it.

Highly touted freshmen Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones are living up to their immense potential, while big man Josh Harrellson has suddenly given the Wildcats a legitimate presence inside. On talent alone, Kentucky could be more than a 2-point favorite.

The Kemba Factor is one of the only reasons the Wildcats don’t have a higher number attached to their name. UConn’s Kemba Walker has been sensational this tournament, averaging 27 points per game, but he still takes a handful of ill-advised shots every game.

Kentucky will capitalize. The other semifinal features the opposite as far as betting is concerned — the underdog has looked like the superior team.

Butler has gotten this far in the NCAA Tournament by virtue of an overtime win, a last-second tip-in and two controversial end-of-the-game foul calls. The Bulldogs have flirted with elimination in three of four games. At the same time, the Rams have won by double digits in four of their five games.

VCU has a senior-laden roster that is playing well enough to consider any points against an evenly matched team like Butler a gift.

The plays are Kentucky -2 and VCU +3. But there’s no reason to stop there.

Since this weekend is sports books’ last blowout event until opening football weekend in September — if there is one this year — props are widely available across Las Vegas on the game. Lucky’s sports books have an intriguing player vs. player prop for the Kentucky vs. Connecticut game.

The line is set at a pick’em for who will score more points between Kentucky’s Terrence Jones and Connecticut’s Jeremy Lamb. Jones is a solid bet to outscore Lamb.

Jones’ ceiling is higher because it’s harder to tell who will lead the Wildcats on any given night. In four tournament games thus far, three different players have led Kentucky in scoring. Only one, Walker, has led the Huskies.

In the other game, look for Butler’s Matt Howard to go "under" the 22.5 points-plus-rebounds posted for him at Lucky’s. It’s a little too high of a mark for the same player who combined for only 21 points-plus-rebounds in two Final Four games last year.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.