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October 23, 2014

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Complete odds for NASCAR weekend in Las Vegas: Dissecting the lines and props

Image

Associated Press

Jimmie Johnson celebrates in Victory Lane after winning the NASCAR Daytona 500 Sprint Cup Series auto race at Daytona International Speedway, Sunday, Feb. 24, 2013, in Daytona Beach, Fla.

Odds to win the 2013 Kobalt Tools 400

  • Jimmie Johnson — 5-to-1
  • Kyle Busch — 8-to-1
  • Brad Keselowski — 8-to-1
  • Matt Kenseth — 8-to-1
  • Carl Edwards — 9-to-1
  • Kasey Kahne — 9-to-1
  • Denny Hamlin — 10-to-1
  • Tony Stewart — 12-to-1
  • Jeff Gordon — 12-to-1
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. — 12-to-1
  • Greg Biffle — 12-to-1
  • Clint Bowyer — 15-to-1
  • Kevin Harvick — 18-to-1
  • Martin Truex Jr. — 20-to-1
  • Mark Martin — 30-to-1
  • Joey Logano — 40-to-1
  • Ryan Newman — 40-to-1
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. — 40-to-1
  • Kurt Busch — 75-to-1
  • Paul Menard — 100-to-1
  • Marcus Ambrose — 100-to-1
  • Aric Almirola — 100-to-1
  • Juan Pablo Montoya — 200-to-1
  • Jamie McMurray — 200-to-1
  • Jeff Burton — 200-to-1
  • Trevor Bayne — 200-to-1
  • Danica Patrick — 500-to-1
  • Bobby Labonte — 1000-to-1
  • Casey Mears — 1,000-to-1
  • David Ragan — 1,000-to-1
  • Travis Kvapil — 1,000-to-1
  • Dave Blaney — 1,000-to-1
  • JJ Yeley — 1,000-to-1
  • Field — 200-to-1
  • Source: LVH Superbook
Click to enlarge photo

Mark Martin celebrates after winning the Sam's Town 300 NASCAR Nationwide Series race at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway Saturday, March 5, 2011.

Jimmie Johnson holds most of the records when it comes to NASCAR’s annual Sprint Cup stop in Las Vegas.

He surely knows about a couple of them — the four victories and the $2.63 million in earnings — but has no clue about the Sin City-specific honor he could boast. Johnson has probably made sports books more money than any other driver since he first raced at Las Vegas Motor Speedway 11 years ago.

Oddsmakers never report No. 48 as one of the most bet-on cars for Las Vegas’ race, which draws triple the gambling action than any other NASCAR event on the schedule. Some combination of Johnson’s relative unpopularity among devoted fans and his perennial short odds are to blame for the lack of dollars behind him.

Bettors will have the chance to ignore Johnson again, as he’s the favorite for what seems like the umpteenth time ahead of Sunday’s Kobalt Tools 400. The LVH Superbook posted Johnson at 5-to-1 odds to win the race.

The only two other drivers to win more than once in Las Vegas are close behind as Matt Kenseth, who repeated in 2004 after a 2003 win, is at 8-to-1 and Carl Edwards, 2008 and 2011 champion, comes in at 9-to-1.

Those three seem like the best place to start because, as I learned when talking to the self-described “Nascapper” for a story three years ago, past success at a track is one key to prognosticating auto racing.

Speaking of that, one category Johnson doesn’t lead in at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is top-10 finishes. That would fall to Mark Martin, who won the inaugural Las Vegas race in 1998, with 10.

The 54-year-old looks for his first Sprint Cup victory in four years at attractive 30-to-1 odds. He’s off to a fast start in 2013, coming in third in the Daytona 500 and earning the pole last week in Phoenix before finishing in a disappointing 21st place.

That’s not quite as impressive as Johnson, who followed a Daytona 500 victory with a second-place in Phoenix.

But where’s the fun in backing Johnson? No one else does.

Look below for the full list of matchups and props offered by the LVH Superbook for Sunday’s race. I’ve bolded a few of my favorites, though as a warning, I’m about as versed in NASCAR as Ryan Tannehill is in NFL divisional alignments. It’s for entertainment only.

Matchups (better finish wins)

Jimmie Johnson -150 vs. Matt Kenseth -130

Jimmie Johnson -150 vs. Brad Keselowski +130

Jimmie Johnson -170 vs. Kyle Busch +150

Matt Kenseth -110 vs. Brad Keselowski -110

Matt Kenseth -130 vs. Kyle Busch +110

Brad Keselowski -130 vs. Kyle Busch +110

Kasey Kahne -110 vs. Denny Hamlin -110

Kasey Kahne -110 vs. Carl Edwards -110

Kasey Kahne -125 vs. Greg Biffle +105

Denny Hamlin -110 vs. Carl Edwards -110

Denny Hamlin -125 vs. Greg Biffle +105

Greg Biffle +105 vs. Carl Edwards -125

Clint Bowyer -125 vs. Dale Earnhardt Jr. +105

Clint Bowyer -125 vs. Jeff Gordon +105

Clint Bowyer -110 vs. Tony Stewart -110

Dale Earnhardt Jr. -110 vs. Jeff Gordon -110

Dale Earnhardt Jr. +105 vs. Tony Stewart -125

Jeff Gordon +105 vs. Tony Stewart -125

Martin Treux Jr. -110 vs. Kevin Harvick -110

Martin Truex Jr. -160 vs. Mark Martin +140

Kevin Harvick -160 vs. Mark Martin +140

Ryan Newman -135 vs. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +115

Ryan Newman -110 vs. Joey Logano -110

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +115 vs. Joey Logano -135

Joey Logano -140 vs. Kurt Busch +120

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. -125 vs. Kurt Busch +105

Aric Almirola -110 vs. Marcos Ambrose -110

Jamie McMurray -110 vs. Paul Menard -110

Jeff Burton Even vs. Aric Amirola -120

Juan Pablo Montoya Even vs. Jamie McMurray -120

Trevor Bayne -110 vs. Juan Pablo Montoya -110

Austin Dillon -165 vs. Danica Patrick +145

Trevor Bayne -175 vs. Danica Patrick +155

Finishing positions

Matt Kenseth: over/under 7.5

Brad Keselowski: over/under 7.5

Kyle Busch: over/under 8.5

Carl Edwards: over/under 8.5

Jeff Gordon: over/under 10.5

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: over/under 10.5

Kevin Harvick: over/under 11.5

Martin Truex Jr.: over/under 11.5

Danica Patrick: over/under 25.5

Winning car number will be: 1-23 (-145) or 24-99 (+125)

Total cautions will be: over 7.5 (+110) or under 7.5 (-130)

Winning car number will be: Even (-175) or Odd (+155)

Winning manufacturer will be: Chevy +105, Toyota +175 or Ford +225

Group matchups (pick who will win out of group, parlays allowed)

Group 1: Jimmie Johnson +165, Matt Kenseth +240, Brad Keselowski +240 or Denny Hamlin +255

Group 2: Kyle Busch +220, Kasey Kahne +220, Carl Edwards +220 or Tony Stewart +225

Group 3: Greg Biffle +210, Clint Bowyer +220, Jeff Gordon +225 or Dale Earnhardt Jr. +230

Group 4: Kevin Harvick +180, Martin Truex Jr. +180, Mark Martin +225 or Joey Logano +300

Group 5: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +195, Kurt Busch +225, Paul Menard +235 or Marcos Ambrose +230

Group 6: Jeff Burton +230, Juan Pablo Montoya +230, Jamie McMurray +215 or Aric Almirola +210

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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