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September 21, 2014

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Vegas Play of the Day: Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners

I’m itching to get into gridiron action, but all my picks in the South Point-lined Play of the Day are falling on days without any scheduled preseason football games.

It’s back to the baseball board to further torture my $10,000 starting bankroll.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners under 7.5 runs: $330 to win $300

Seattle exploded for 11 runs in a trouncing of Toronto in the series opener last night. The second-lowest scoring team in the American League, the Mariners’ offense has cooled and gone under the total in the game after a double-digit breakout on three of the last four occasions.

That’s an interesting trend, but unfortunately, probably meaningless given the small sample size and arbitrary selection criteria. Two factors that aren’t meaningless and make the under worth a serious look are Seattle starter Chris Young and home plate umpire Dale Scott.

The 35-year-old Young is enjoying a resurgent season, especially at home, where he’s holding opposing batters below the Mendoza line at .191 with a 2.42 ERA. There’s no reason Young shouldn’t continue his success against the Blue Jays, which have the much scarier offense of the two teams.

Not with Scott calling balls and strikes. Known as a pitcher’s umpire, Scott is living up to the reputation over the last year and a half. Since the 2013 season, more than 64 percent of games called by Scott have gone under.

His last four games behind the plate have fallen under. Why not make it five in a row in Seattle?

Standings: Bern (42-31-1, $13,292), Keefer (33-38, $8,992), Brewer (29-41-3, $2,350)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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