Las Vegas Sun

April 16, 2014

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Vegas Play of the Day: Super Bowl 48

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Julio Cortez / AP

The Empire State Building, top, backdrops Roman numerals for the NFL Super Bowl XLVIII football game during sunrise at Pier A Park in Hoboken, N.J., Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2014. The Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos are scheduled to play on Sunday, Feb. 2, 2014, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.

Welcome to a special edition of the Sun’s Play of the Day.

It’s a national holiday for sports bettors. Tempting as it was, picking West Bromwich Albion at Liverpool soccer or Winnipeg at Montreal hockey off the South Point betting board just wouldn’t feel right on Super Bowl Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks plus-125 moneyline over Denver Broncos: $200 to win $250

Super Bowl 48 looks like a classic case of WTF — wrong team favored. I’ve written exhaustively about the game, so check that out for deeper analysis and I’ll limit the rambling.

Sentimentally, I’d like to see Peyton Manning win a second Super Bowl. But that’s no reason to wager on it. Manning will be the most prolific player suiting up at MetLife Stadium, but he’s not on the better team.

The Seahawks surpassed the Broncos for the top spot in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings more than two months ago, a move I whole-heartedly endorse. Oddsmakers did too, as evidenced by their opening of Seattle as the favorite after conference championship weekend.

Denver’s offense is historically terrific, but a silky-soft schedule has it somewhat unprepared for a defense of Seattle’s caliber. Seattle’s offense, additionally, is far more efficient than the public credits and should have moments against a beat-up and mediocre Denver defense.

I’m prepared for a great game, but getting a plus-price on the team I consider superior is too much to pass up.

Standings: Bern (4-4, $9,590), Brewer (3-4-1, $9,530), Keefer (3-7, $8,267.50)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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