Vegas Play of the Day: San Diego State at Boise State

By Taylor Bern

Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2014 | 2 a.m.

Here’s the latest installment of the Play of the Day, which uses odds from the South Point.

Our three sports writers started with a $10,000 bankroll — fictional, of course.

San Diego State plus-1.5 at Boise State: $440 to win $400

I had a hard time picking just one game off of today’s slate, and one I nearly went with is the game I’m at tonight in Fort Collins, Colo. The South Point had UNLV as a 1.5-point underdog as of Tuesday night and since I expect the Rebels to go into Moby Arena and win I liked that number. But the Rebels are not a consistent team so I couldn’t pull the trigger on them when the only undefeated team in the same league is sitting there at the same number.

I don’t think San Diego State is going to make it through Mountain West play without a loss and I wouldn’t be shocked if they fall at Boise State, but I’m not so confident in that that I’ll pass up the Aztecs with points. SDSU won the first meeting by only three, which is part of the reason the number is where it is, but since then the Aztecs have kept rolling while the Broncos are stuck.

This is the second game of a brutal six-game stretch and it comes after the Broncos had a 97-percent chance of winning, according to one win-probability chart, before watching UNLV’s comeback Saturday night at the Thomas & Mack Center. Now they must try to regroup for the biggest game left on the schedule and the Broncos prepared for that in part by shutting out the media.

Perhaps I’m reading too much into it, but I don’t take it as a good sign when a coach changes up routines before a big game. And if a few beat writers are too distracting you're not in a good place anyways.

The more important part is that it means there’s no update on senior Jeff Elorriaga, who left the UNLV game with a back injury and didn’t return. He’s not a high-usage guy but he’s very efficient as the Broncos’ best 3-point shooter. The uncertainty on his status is enough to push this game to the top for me.

Standings: Bern (5-4, $9,790), Brewer (3-5-1, $9,200), Keefer (4-7, $8,517.50)

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.