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October 23, 2014

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Vegas Play of the Day: San Diego State at Utah State

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Sam Morris / Las Vegas Sun

San Diego State’s Skylar Spencer celebrates teammate Josh Davis’ dunk during their game against UNLV on Saturday, Jan. 18, 2014, at Viejas Arena in San Diego. The 10th-ranked Aztecs won the game 63-52.

Today’s pick for our Vegas Play of the Day competition is an example of taking a game for the value more than simply selecting one that I like. The South Point odds we use have shifted on this game, and as a result I’m going the opposite way than my initial plan.

San Diego State money line (minus-145) at Utah State: $500 to win $340

Everything I’ve heard about this game has people calling for the Aggies to keep it close, if not pull the outright upset. The Smith Spectrum is a very difficult place to play, especially for a team not accustomed to playing there, and Utah State may get starting forward Kyle Davis back after he missed Wednesday’s loss at UNLV.

The Aztecs’ offense has been mediocre to downright awful this season. It hasn’t mattered because their defense is so good, but it does figure that that will catch up to them eventually. Especially since Utah State seems primed to bounce back after a dreadful offensive night against the Rebels.

So if this game was at SDSU minus-4 or more I’d look at taking the points. But bettors have driven it down to minus-2.5, where I don’t see much value in the underdog and would rather pick a winner. I wouldn’t be shocked if Utah State pulls the upset, but to this point San Diego State has found a way to win these type of ugly games and I like being on the opposite side of most people.

Standings: Bern (2-3, $9,500), Brewer (2-3-1, $9,470), Keefer (2-5, $8,787.50)

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.

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