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November 28, 2014

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Vegas odds for the World Cup: Quarterfinals betting preview and lines

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Petr David Josek / AP

Costa Rica players react after Michael Umana scores during a shootout after regulation time in the World Cup round of 16 soccer match between Costa Rica and Greece at the Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Brazil, on Sunday, June 29, 2014. Costa Rica defeated Greece 5-3 in penalty shootouts after a 1-1 tie.

Odds to win 2014 World Cup

  • Brazil: 5-to-2
  • Argentina: 4-to-1
  • Germany: 4-to-1
  • Netherlands: 4-to-1
  • France: 8-to-1
  • Colombia: 12-to-1
  • Belgium: 12-to-1
  • Costa Rica: 40-to-1
  • Numbers from LVH Superbook

Those who filled out their World Cup brackets with all favorites are feeling wise enough to apply for jobs as soccer analysts after the start of this year’s tournament.

Nonparity stuck around for another week in Brazil with the round of 16 again building on the established motif of exciting matches, but ones that ultimately end with the pregame’s perceived better team advancing.

So here’s a big prediction for the quarterfinal round running over the next two days: At least one favorite will topple. An underdog will have its day.

Does that sound about as bold as a stick figure drawn with a fine-point pen? Maybe, but it shouldn’t for anyone who’s played close attention.

When Greece played Ivory Coast on June 24, nothing extraordinary seemed to be taking place on the pitch in Fortaleza. It was a group matchup between two midtier teams.

But Greece’s 2-1 victory still stands 11 days later as the tournament’s latest upset. Greece was plus-300 to win in regulation.

Short betting lines in the next four games — including two with a favorite of less than 2-to-1 — bode well for a surprise. A parlay of every quarterfinal favorite at the LVH Superbook would pay out plus-360 (risking $100 to win $360).

That translates to just a 21 percent chance of Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Netherlands all advancing.

Then again, the same method of taking all eight favorites in one wager a round ago was a plus-1545 proposition. That was a 6 percent probability, and it converted.

Perhaps the recent results in the 2014 World Cup are just so predictable that they’re unpredictable.

Find lines for all of the quarterfinal games below and look to the side for update future odds.

Friday, July 4

Germany vs. France, 9 a.m., Rio de Janeiro

To Advance: Germany minus-140, France plus-120

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Spread: France pick ’em (plus-120) vs. Germany pick ’em (minus-140)

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Result: Germany plus-140, France plus-210, Draw plus-220

Colombia vs. Brazil, 1 p.m., Fortaleza

To Advance: Brazil minus-240, Colombia plus-200

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Spread: Colombia plus-0.5 (Even) vs. Brazil minus-0.5 (minus-120)

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Result: Brazil minus-120, Draw plus-270, Colombia plus-320

Saturday, July 5

Belgium vs. Argentina, 9 a.m., Brasilia

To Advance: Argentina minus-180, Belgium plus-160

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Spread: Belgium plus-0.5 (minus-135) vs. Argentina minus-0.5 (plus-115)

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Result: Argentina plus-115, Draw plus-230, Belgium plus-250

Costa Rica vs. Netherlands, 1 p.m., Salvador

To Advance: Netherlands minus-450, Costa Rica plus-350

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Spread: Costa Riva plus-1 (plus-105) vs. Netherlands minus-1 (minus-125)

90 Minute Plus Injury Time Result: Netherlands minus-225, Draw plus-330, Costa Rica plus-375

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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