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July 30, 2014

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Vegas Play of the Day: France vs. Germany

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Ricardo Mazalan / AP

United States’ goalkeeper Tim Howard dives to make a save on Germany’s Thomas Mueller during the group G World Cup soccer match between the USA and Germany at the Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Brazil, Thursday, June 26, 2014.

I’m on a two-game winning streak with both victories coming on soccer bets.

File that under sentences I never expected to type. The South Point-lined Play of the Day, our contest where we each started with a $10,000 bankroll, has a way with surprises.

Will both France and Germany score (penalty shootout not included)? No at plus-110: $300 to win $330

The two best European teams — with apologies to The Netherlands — have gotten applauded loudest this World Cup for their offensive escapades.

Germany’s 4-0 trouncing of Portugal in its opening game turned everyone’s head. Likewise, France’s 5-2 pasting over Switzerland in the group stage drew the most attention of its four games so far.

But where Germany and France have truly succeeded is on the other side of the field. They’ve both been great defensively.

Each has one game where they gave up two goals, but France posted shutouts in all three other matches. Germany has held two opponents scoreless.

With this in mind, I wanted to bet under 2.5 goals. But the minus-150 juice attached dissuaded me. I wouldn’t want to pay that high of a premium and would require the line to sneak down to at least around minus-120 for further consideration.

Why not roll the dice and get a plus price on one of the teams failing to find the back of the net? It’s very likely this turns out as a 2-0 or 1-0 game either way.

These teams are wary of each other and will attack with caution. They’re archrivals, and neither Germany nor France will want to get overly aggressive early as the match develops.

It’s a 50/50 gamble from my perspective, which means the price is right.

Standings: Bern (33-24-1, $12,019), Keefer (28-33, $8,894), Brewer (22-35-3, $2,435)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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