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October 1, 2014

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sports betting:

Vegas Play of the Day: Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners

Here’s the latest installment of the Play of the Day, which uses odds from the South Point. Our three sports writers started with a $10,000 bankroll — fictional, of course.

Seattle Mariners minus-1.5 runs (plus-105) against Texas Rangers: $400 to win $420

It’s a weird stat and I’m not sure that it actually means anything, but sometimes all it takes is believing in a trend to make it feel real.

Here it is: In the Mariners’ last 20 victories (dating back to May 5) they have won by at least two runs 18 times. Now, it’s entirely possible, actually probable, that this means nothing. That “streak” includes 17 losses, which I suppose means Seattle is 18-19 over that stretch in covering a 1.5 run line.

That’s not really impressive. Of course, the main reason I’m willing to buy into the theory that when the Mariners win they win by at least two is two words: Felix Hernandez.

King Felix is 5-0 in his last seven starts, and all seven of those games were Seattle wins by at least two runs. So basically my conclusion is if you’re going to bet on Hernandez the only way to get value is to go with the run line. I normally don’t like the run line, and yet here we are.

Standings: Bern (32-21-1, $12,979), Keefer (25-31, $8,074), Brewer (18-27-3, $4,450)

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.

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