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October 25, 2014

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Vegas Play of the Day: UFC 174’s Ovince St. Preux vs. Ryan Jimmo

With the best betting fight card in some time slated for Saturday, steering the Play of the Day towards UFC 174 was natural.

All four underdogs of less than 2-to-1 on the main card carried some promise, but one specifically stood out on the South Point betting board to help my bankroll slowly climb its way back to the starting $10,000 mark.

Ryan Jimmo plus-140 over Ovince St. Preux: $300 to win $420

Ovince St. Preux has looked outstanding through three fights in the UFC. There’s only one problem: He hasn’t fought anyone.

St. Preux could have found a stronger strength of schedule fighting on a few choice regional cards. The thought was always that as soon as he moved up in competition level, St. Preux would probably suffer a setback.

Now Jimmo isn’t a killer by any stretch. He’s a middling veteran light heavyweight, but that alone makes him better than the likes of Cody Donovan, Nikita Krylov and Gian Villante.

St. Preux has 11 victories via stoppage throughout his career with 10 of them coming in the first round. He tends to gas out and doesn’t look as strong after the opening five minutes.

As long as Jimmo can get out of the first round, his chances of winning the fight are better than 50/50. And his experience alone should guide him that far.

This is no five-star Guarantee of the Year or anything, but the line movement in St. Preux’s direction has created value on the underdog. Jimmo should win a sloppy fight.

Standings: Bern (32-22-1, $12,579), Keefer (25-31, $8,074), Brewer (18-27-3, $4,450)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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