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October 20, 2014

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Vegas Play of the Day: Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs

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Eric Gay / AP

Dallas Mavericks’ Monta Ellis (11) drives to the basket between San Antonio Spurs’ Matt Bonner, left, and Tim Duncan, right, during the first quarter of Game 1 of the opening-round NBA basketball playoff series, Sunday, April 20, 2014, in San Antonio.

Two straight days of Game 7s in the NBA Playoffs continues Sunday afternoon.

The favored home teams are 3-0 straight-up and 2-1 against the spread so far but the Play of the Day, which features odds from the South Point and starting bankrolls of $10,000, is looking the other way.

Dallas Mavericks plus-6.5 at San Antonio Spurs: $330 to win $300

One out of six games so far in this series has been decided by more than 6.5 points. It was a 21-point victory for Dallas at San Antonio in game two.

There’s some hesitancy with this play because of where these teams were just two weeks ago. Given the opportunity to bet San Antonio minus-6.5 in a one-off game for its season against Dallas back then, I would have jumped on it.

But at some point, recent results must weigh more heavily. Six games isn’t a miniscule sample size.

And in those contests, Dallas has been the slightly better team. It’s covered in every contest.

It’s no fluke either. The Mavericks are taking, and hitting, high percentage shots. They’re rebounding tenaciously. They’re playing great defense.

I still fear San Antonio pulls this out, but it might come down to the final possession.

Standings: Standings: Bern (21-16-1, $10,600), Keefer (19-22, $8,868), Brewer (15-20-3, $6,595)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer

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