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December 20, 2014

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NFL Draft could alter season win totals in Las Vegas sports books

A snapshot of all 32 teams’ over/under wins going into the offseason’s biggest event

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Stephen Morton / AP

South Carolina Gamecocks defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (7) drinks from a water bottle on the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against North Carolina, Thursday, Aug. 29, 2013 in Columbia, S.C.

There’s an 83 percent chance Jadeveon Clowney will become the first overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft a few hours from now.

Johnny Manziel has a 66 percent chance to get taken before fellow top signal caller prospect Blake Bortles. It’s more difficult to forecast the order of the next two quarterback prospects, as Derek Carr is given just a 54 percent chance to hear his name before Teddy Bridgewater.

All of those figures are derived from betting odds, but not the Las Vegas betting odds. Nevada casinos aren’t permitted to book action on events that take place off of the playing field, such as the NFL Draft.

That doesn’t mean bookmakers and bettors will ignore tonight’s proceedings at Radio City Music Hall in New York. The 32 first-round selections may not boost or harm the bottom line immediately, but they’ll certainly influence the betting market.

The NFL gambling season is already underway, after all, with week 1 lines posted in shops around town.

The easiest place to measure the NFL Draft effect, however, is in the season win totals. South Point is one of the few books to open over/under victory propositions on all 32 teams so far.

A month’s worth of action has seen some big moves — the Eagles, Chiefs, Rams and Jets are among a group of teams that have seen their win total inflate by .5 after early “over” wagers — but expect more following the NFL Draft fallout.

It’s luckily an easy thing to track, provided a pre-draft snapshot of the win totals. Taking 4-to-1 against Clowney going first overall or plus-160 (risking $1 to win $1.60) on Bortles getting taken over Manziel (minus-230) might require looking elsewhere — those numbers are taken from bovada.lv — but there’s no better place than Las Vegas to track the perceived success of teams’ drafts.

Find South Point’s updated over/under NFL win totals below, which we’ll revisit after the draft to determine the Vegas perspective.

Seahawks — 11 (over minus-130, under plus-110)

Broncos — 11 (over minus-110, under minus-110)

49ers — 11 (over minus-110, under minus-110)

Patriots — 10.5 (over minus-140, under plus-120)

Packers — 10 (over minus-130, under plus-110)

Saints — 9.5 (over minus-115, under minus-105)

Bengals — 9.5 (over plus-115, under minus-135)

Colts — 9 (over minus-130, plus-110)

Eagles — 9 (over minus-120, under Even)

Panthers — 8.5 (over minus-125, under plus-105)

Steelers — 8.5 (over minus-120, under Even)

Chiefs — 8.5 (over minus-120, under Even)

Ravens — 8.5 (over minus-120, under Even)

Chargers — 8.5 (over minus-110, under minus-110)

Falcons 8.5 (over plus-105, under minus-125)

Texans — 8.5 (over plus-120, under minus-140)

Bears 8 (over minus-110, under minus-110)

Lions — 8 (over minus-110, under minus-110)

Cowboys 8 (over minus-110, under minus-110)

Cardinals — 7.5 (over minus-150, under plus-130))

Dolphins — 7.5 (over minus-110, under minus-110)

Giants — 7.5 (over minus-110, under minus-110)

Rams — 7 (over minus-140, under plus-120)

Jets — 7 (over minus-135, under plus-115)

Redskins — 7 (over minus-120, under Even)

Vikings — 7 (over minus-110, under minus-110)

Browns 6.5 (over minus-165, under plus-145)

Buccaneers — 6.5 (over minus-150, under plus-130)

Titans — 6.5 (over minus-120, under Even)

Bills — 6.5 (over minus-110, under minus-110)

Raiders — 5 (over Even, under minus-120)

Jaguars — 4.5 (over minus-125, under plus-105)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer

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