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October 1, 2014

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Vegas Play of the Day: Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards

A minor miracle occurred in this space yesterday. Taylor Bern lost a bet.

I was under the impression that Ray Brewer and I were the ones who had to supply the defeats in the Play of the Day, which features odds from the South Point. Nearly $4,000 behind Bern apiece, Brewer and I don’t have much of a margin for error in rebuilding our starting $10,000 bankroll.

Indiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards under 181: $330 to win $300

If there’s one thing about the Pacers I can continue to trust, it’s coach Frank Vogel’s ability to make adjustments.

If there’s one thing about the Pacers that will never regain my faith, it’s their ability to play offense effectively on a consistent basis.

That combination forms a strong case for the under in Game 6. Indiana isn’t going to allow Washington to shoot 50 percent from the floor behind a 13-for-15 performance from Marcin Gortat again like in Game 5, where Washington extended the series in a 102-79 victory.

It was only the second time Washington put up triple digits against Indiana in eight meetings this season. The first time was in Game 1 of the conference semifinals, and Indiana responded by holding Washington to 82 and 63 points in the next two games.

The average for the series is just 175 points per game between the two teams. Three of five games have gone under the total.

The betting market has adjusted downward — this total is 2.5 points lower than Game 1 — but not enough. Washington should win to force a Game 7, but five points is a high asking price in a game where points won’t come easy.

Standings: Bern (24-17-1, $11,350), Keefer (19-25, $7,528), Brewer (18-22-3, $7,370)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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