Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Vegas pick ’em: NFL week 10 winners against the spread

Colts 2014

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) leaves the field after an NFL football game against the New York Giants Monday, Nov. 3, 2014, in East Rutherford, N.J. The Colts won the game 40-24.

Updated Thursday, Nov. 6, 2014 | 10:42 a.m.

The NFL saved the biggest loss for last in week 9.

Talking Points NFL bet of the week

Talking Points college bet of the week

Week 10: Rams at Cardinals

Which side would you take in the Sun's handicapping game of the week? (Majority poll opinion: 5-5 this season)
Cardinals minus-7 — 65.5%
Rams plus-7 — 34.5%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Sports book directors are itching to get week 10 started after the Indianapolis Colts exercised their wont and cashed tickets en masse for the betting public on Monday Night Football.

Behind another 354 yards and four touchdowns from the NFL’s leading passer Andrew Luck, the Colts routed the Giants 40-24 as 3-point road favorites. Conservative estimates put 70 percent of the tickets on Indianapolis, handing the house a rare red mark in a season where it’s mostly raked in money.

It was fitting that the Colts were the ones causing the discord. Now at the midway point of the season with every team having played at least eight games, Indianapolis stands alone as the most profitable bet in the NFL.

The Colts are 7-2 against the spread to go with their 6-3 straight-up record. Through two and a half years with Luck and coach Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis is 29-15 against the spread.

I may never sniff a 65 percent covering rate, which is nearly impossible picking every game, but remain pleased with the pick’em’s overall progress.

The blog finished with the Colts winner to go 8-5 against the spread last week and boost the season record to an encouraging 71-61-2. Indianapolis is one of six teams on a bye this weekend, cutting down the schedule to a particularly challenging 13 games.

As always, I went with the best available lines of my chosen side and listed picks in three tiers with individual records attached.

Check out the week 10 pick’em below and come back Saturday for the Sun’s handicapping contest and game of the week column.

Plays (17-15)

Saint Louis Rams plus-7.5 at Arizona Cardinals Arizona is primed for a fall by every statistical measure. The Cardinals’ plus-36 point differential is more indicative of a 4-4 team than where they currently stand at 7-1, which is an even more remarkable record considering their minus-288 yardage differential.

Buffalo Bills plus-2.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs As a result of being tied for the second best against the spread record in the NFL at 6-2, Kansas City is suddenly overvalued. The Chiefs covered plus-10 in last week’s 24-10 victory over the Jets but were outgained and lethargic, a combination that won’t work against a Bills team coming off of a bye at home.

Leans (29-20-1)

San Francisco 49ers plus-5 at New Orleans Saints It’s the trusty overreaction line of the week. The early point spread was only 3 points before San Francisco narrowly lost but outplayed Saint Louis at home last week while New Orleans beat up Carolina on the road.

Miami Dolphins plus-3 at Detroit Lions It’s a battle between the two best defenses in the league according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, with Detroit narrowly ahead of Miami. The difference comes on offense, where the Dolphins rank No. 13 to the Lions’ No. 25.

Atlanta Falcons minus-1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Falcons were desperate for their bye week and are traditionally money coming out of a break, going 5-1 straight-up and 4-2 against the spread under coach Mike Smith, so inclined to grab the diminished price while available. This line could creep all the way up to a field goal.

Tennessee Titans plus-10 at Baltimore Ravens Teams heading into a bye playing an opponent that is not have gone 6-12 against the spread this season. Pick apart that trend all you want, but it’s not a situation where I’m comfortable giving double digits.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-6 vs. Carolina Panthers Nick Foles had thrown 10 interceptions to 13 touchdowns and ranked 26th in the NFL in passer rating before getting injured, so it’s not as if Mark Sanchez is a major downgrade at quarterback. Eagles have been more imposing on defense this season anyway, rating eighth in DVOA.

Guesses (25-26-1)

Cleveland Browns plus-6.5 at Cincinnati Bengals Taking a purely contrarian position with Cincinnati drawing more than 80 percent of the action despite the line looking precise. Cleveland’s offensive regression is balanced by its defensive improvements in recent weeks.

New York Jets plus-5.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger isn’t going to throw for six touchdowns every week for the rest of the year. The Jets should put an end to the unprecedented two week run with a deceptively game defense that ranks seventh in the NFL at giving up 5.3 yards per play.

Seattle Seahawks minus-9 vs. New York Giants These two teams are a combined 1-7 against the spread over the last month, so neither side looks particularly desirable. But I can’t get their meeting last year out of my head when the Seahawks thrashed the Giants 23-0 with the same minus-9 point spread — in New York.

Chicago Bears plus-7.5 at Green Bay Packers In an absolutely desperate situation, expecting the Bears to unleash everything they have against the archrival Packers. The offense is too explosive to go down without a fight, as evidenced by the 496 yards they gained in the first matchup against the Packers this season.

Denver Broncos minus-11.5 at Oakland Raiders The Raiders might not go winless this season, but they’re not finding a victory this week. Denver has won and covered in all three trips to Oakland under coach John Fox.

Dallas Cowboys minus-6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars in London A complete roll of the dice either way with Tony Romo’s status unknown at filing time. Would rather gamble on a short line, available only at CG Technologies sports books, against the team that’s been the worst in the NFL and a complete disaster against the spread over the last few years if forced.

583217Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy