Darron Cummings / AP
Sunday, Nov. 16, 2014 | 2 a.m.
I’ve already written extensively about the game I’m picking in today’s Play of the Day, which uses odds from the South Point and started with $10,00 bankrolls.
Week 11: Patriots at Colts
- Which side would you take in the Sun's handicapping game of the week? (Majority Poll Opinion: 6-5 this season)
- Patriots plus-3 — 67.8%
- Colts minus-3 — 32.2%
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So check that out here, and I’ll try to elaborate on different points below.
Indianapolis Colts minus-3 vs. New England Patriots: $550 to win $500
I understand why the Patriots are drawing the bulk of the action in Sunday Night Football. They’ve looked like the best team in the NFL over their last five games, going 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 against the spread.
But here’s what’s being overlooked: That stretch includes less than 60 percent of their season. New England looked — gasp — average at best in its first four games, going 2-2 straight-up and 1-3 against the spread.
By now, it’s safe to say the Patriots are a better team than that they showed in the first quarter of the season. But they’re also not as perfect as they showed in the second quarter.
Their true strength lies somewhere in the middle. Indianapolis’ nine games — in which it’s gone 7-2 against the spread and 6-3 straight-up — have featured less variance.
You know what you’re getting out of the Colts, and that’s Andrew Luck keeping them in every game with a suddenly serviceable defense on the other side. Luck is particularly harsh on teams that give him time in the pocket, and the Patriots’ only elite pass rusher, Chandler Jones, is out for a few more weeks.
The Colts have the better offense and the better defense on the season, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. Playing at home, they should be giving more than a field goal.
Standings: Bern (54-47-1, $11,726), Keefer (46-56-1, $6,731), Brewer (46-54-3, $3,655)
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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