Las Vegas Sun

March 19, 2024

Sports Betting:

Vegas pick ’em: NFL week 13 winners against the spread

Carlos Hyde 49ers

ASSOCIATED PRESS

San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) celebrates after running for a 4-yard touchdown during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the Washington Redskins in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Nov. 23, 2014.

Giving thanks comes much easier when worthwhile football is involved.

Week 13: Patriots at Packers

Which side would you take in the Sun's handicapping game of the week? (Majority Poll Opinion this season: 8-5)
Patriots plus-3 — 56.0%
Packers minus-3 — 44%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

No one is cursing the NFL’s offerings this Thanksgiving. Three of the six teams suiting up Thursday are currently in the playoffs. The others are the next three out.

None of the three games have a point spread of more than a touchdown. Cooperatively, betting lines indicate that each game is a little better than the one that came before.

Traditional Thanksgiving participants Detroit kick off the holiday at 9:30 a.m. at home against NFC North rival Chicago as a 7-point favorite. The Cowboys take over in the afternoon and host the Eagles as 3.5-point favorites with first-place in the NFC East at risk.

The nightcap features what many would call the NFL’s best current rivalry as the 49ers give the Seahawks one point in San Francisco.

One thing I’m thankful for this year is continuing to stay above .500 in the pick’em. After a bounce-back 9-5-1 outing last week, my overall record now stands at 91-82-3.

May your turkey taste moist and your tickets turn gold. Happy Thanksgiving.

Check below for all of this week’s picks, presented in three different groups with individual records. Spreads are the best currently available price on the chosen side in Las Vegas.

Plays (19-23)

Buffalo Bills minus-2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns The Bills just might have the best defensive line — made up of Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus, Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams — in the NFL. The vastly underrated unit will create problems for sputtering Cleveland quarterback Brian Hoyer.

Atlanta Falcons plus-3 vs. Arizona Cardinals Precarious spot for the Cardinals, which must travel East coming off of a physically taxing road game in Seattle. Falcons have quietly improved with their last two losses coming by a total of five points.

Philadelphia Eagles plus-3.5 at Dallas Cowboys All three of Dallas’ losses — Arizona, Washington and San Francisco — have come at home against teams ranked in the top 10 against the run according to Football Outsiders. Philadelphia is ninth in rushing defense, allowing only 3.9 yards per carry.

Leans (39-26-1)

Green Bay Packers minus-3 vs. New England Patriots New England has been the NFL’s best team over the last month, but it’s played unsustainably perfect. Green Bay is a close second with room left to improve.

New Orleans Saints plus-4.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers The common denominator of New Orleans’ three-game losing streak is teams with above-average defenses. Saints will find relief in going up against Steelers unit allowing 5.9 yards per play, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.

Chicago Bears plus-7 at Detroit Lions Bears’ much-criticized three-game losing and non-covering streak that culminated earlier this month came against three teams ranked in the top five of Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings — New England, Green Bay and Miami. Hence, this team isn’t as destitute as perceived.

Minnesota Vikings minus-2.5 vs. Carolina Panthers Vikings are significantly better on defense, giving up 5.4 yards per play to Panthers’ 5.7, and only slightly worse on offense, 5.3 yards per play to 5.2. Therefore, they should be giving at least a field goal at home.

San Francisco 49ers minus-1 vs. Seattle Seahawks While some are fixated on the 49ers’ offensive issues, I’m more enamored with their defensive improvements. Seattle hasn’t won at San Francisco since 2008.

Denver Broncos minus-1 at Kansas City Chiefs Before the Broncos’ recent two-game against the spread swoon, this line would have been more than a field goal. The Broncos won’t have this small of a price the rest of the year except potentially in the AFC Championship Game so jumping aboard now before the public gets involved.

Guesses (34-33-1)

Cincinnati Bengals minus-3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers AFC North has cleaned up against the NFC South, going 10-2-1 straight-up and 9-4 against the spread this season. This is every bit the mismatch of some of the other interconference blowouts.

Houston Texans minus-6.5 vs. Tennessee Titans Titans’ only win since week 1 aberration victory over the Chiefs was a lucky 2-point triumph over the Jaguars at home. They’re also 2-8 against the spread since beating Kansas City, which begs the question: Could Tennessee be the worst team in the NFL?

Miami Dolphins minus-5.5 at New York Jets An absolute must-win for one of the NFL’s best teams in a game that couldn’t possibly matter less to one of the worst.

Oakland Raiders plus-7 at Saint Louis Rams Skeptical of asking the Rams to lay a touchdown after they haven’t been favored in 12 weeks. The only time Saint Louis gave points this season, it got blown out 34-6 against Minnesota as 3-point favorites.

Baltimore Ravens minus-5.5 vs. San Diego Chargers Running out of cases to make for San Diego, which has lost six straight against the spread. The Chargers haven’t covered in a road game in more than two months, and now must travel to frigid Baltimore for an early kickoff.

Washington Redskins plus-10 at Indianapolis Colts So much attention is paid to the quarterbacks — and Andrew Luck is admittedly eons ahead of Colt McCoy — that Washington’s advantage at most of the other positions is concealed.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-3 vs. New York Giants When 90 percent of the action is on a team that’s lost six straight and covered only once, instinct says to go the other way. Jacksonville’s defense has started to keep it competitive in most games.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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