Vegas pick ’em: NFL week 7 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Thursday, Oct. 16, 2014 | 2 a.m.

Updated Thursday, Oct. 16, 2014 | 10:08 a.m.

The winless count has whittled to one.

Every team in the NFL has at least one victory on the field after six weeks of play, but not in Las Vegas. The New York Jets fell to 0-5-1 against the spread with a 31-17 defeat at home against the Denver Broncos as 10-point underdogs Sunday.

It was a particularly damaging and dirty loss for local casinos. More than 90 percent of the tickets were on the Broncos, leaving bookmakers rooting heavily for Jets.

The house appeared to have an easy win with New York trailing 24-17 with seconds to go until quarterback Geno Smith lived up to his unfortunate reputation. In his own end zone, Smith threw an interception that Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib returned 22 yards for a touchdown.

The noise in the Westgate Las Vegas Showroom exceeded the levels Barry Manilow used to play at in the venue as hundreds applauded their miracle win. The scene was likely the same all around town.

Talking Points didn’t partake. The Broncos’ cover cost us another game in the record during a difficult 6-8-1 week.

The overall record now stands at 48-41-2, well within my goal for the season. It’s never profitable picking every game, so I’m just looking to finish better than 50 percent.

Check below for all of week 7 picks, which use the best available local line and are separated into three confidence categories with individual season records attached.

Plays (11-10)

Kansas City Chiefs plus-4.5 at San Diego Chargers Inopportune spot for San Diego, which must play both the Chiefs and Broncos within a five-day stretch, as contrasted with an excellent situation for Kansas City, which enters rested off a bye week. The Chiefs are an incredible 9-3 against the spread on the road under coach Andy Reid.

Pittsburgh Steelers minus-3 vs. Houston Texans All the talk regarding Houston defensive end J.J. Watt has masked the fact that he’s more disruptive in the pass game than the run game. The Texans are lousy at stopping the run — ranking 24th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA — which Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell will exploit in spades.

Washington Redskins minus-5 vs. Tennessee Titans Washington had covers snatched in the final 30 seconds of each of their last two games. The bad luck has concealed that the Redskins are actually playing decently, which is more than can be said for the lowly Titans.

New York Giants plus-6.5 at Dallas Cowboys The Giants haven’t lost by more than 6.5 points in Dallas in six years, including winning four of the last five meetings straight-up. The Westgate Superbook’s early line on this game before week 6 was only Dallas minus-3.5.

Leans (21-13-1)

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-6 vs. Cleveland Browns Told myself I would never rank a play on Jacksonville this highly again, but came away enthused with its performance last week. The Jaguars easily outgained the Titans and should have won if it wasn’t for a missed field goal on the final play of the game.

Atlanta Falcons plus-7 at Baltimore Ravens Atlanta coach Mike Smith and his staff’s jobs are on the line after a dreadful start, which means they will throw everything they have at Baltimore. A little aggressiveness is exactly what the Falcons need.

Chicago Bears minus-3 vs. Miami Dolphins If the Bears’ defense can play as well as it did in limiting the Falcons to a season-low 278 yards last week, then Chicago is an easy take. I’ll gamble that it’s more of a sign of improvement with impressive young players like cornerback Kyle Fuller and linebacker Khaseem Greene than a fluky one-week outlier.

Oakland Raiders plus-3.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals Ready for a pair of surprising yet telling statistics? Not only has Oakland’s offense outgained Arizona’s 5.2 yards per play to 4.9 yards per play but the Raiders’ defense is also limiting opponents to 5.6 yards per play as opposed to the Cardinals allowing 6 yards per play.

New Orleans Saints plus-3 at Detroit Lions If there’s ever a time for the Saints to prove they’re still Super Bowl contenders on the road, it’s playing in a dome off a bye week. New Orleans will score despite Detroit’s defensive dominance, and I’m not sure the home team can match without Calvin Johnson.

Green Bay Packers minus-7 vs. Carolina Panthers Carolina’s defense fell to No. 28 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings and will be by far the worst Green Bay has faced. Look for Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, currently 15th in the NFL in passing yards, to rocket up the passing statistics ranks this week.

Guesses (16-18-1)

Minnesota Vikings plus-5.5 at Buffalo Bills This must be the first time in years sports books are getting flooded with bets on Buffalo — yes, Buffalo. Perception on the Vikings couldn’t be lower, which seems unfair given the inauspicious position rookie upstarts like quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and running back Jerick McKinnon were put in against the league’s best defense last week.

Cincinnati Bengals plus-3.5 at Indianapolis Colts This is just the seventh time over the past two years where the Bengals have been underdogs. They’ve gone 4-2 straight-up and 4-1-1 against the spread in those contests.

Seattle Seahawks minus-6.5 at St. Louis Rams Panic over the Seahawks’ 3-2 straight-up and against the spread record is misguided, as they’ve faced the toughest schedule in the NFL so far according to Football Outsiders. Angry Seattle off a big upset is more attractive than plodding St. Louis.

New England Patriots minus-9.5 vs. New York Jets History says to jump on the Patriots when they get hot. They’ve had streaks of at least three covers in a row in each of the last 11 seasons. That perhaps arbitrary statistic is enough to keep me off of the Jets, which I can no longer stomach backing.

Denver Broncos minus-6.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers In perhaps the best inter-conference game of the year except for the Super Bowl rematch, the smart play might be sitting out from betting and watching for fun. Betting line is so tight that I’d probably switch sides if San Francisco plus-7 was available, but it’s not as of press time.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.