College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 8

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Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston (5) passes against Syracuse during the first half of an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Oct. 11, 2014, in Syracuse, N.Y. (AP Photo/Mike Groll)

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Oct. 17, 2014 | noon

Talking Points college bet of the week

Talking Points bet of the week

Sports bettors have placed a dearth of wagers on the biggest college football game of the weekend.

It’s not that gamblers are ignoring Notre Dame’s trip to Florida State, a clash between undefeated top-five ranked teams. It’s just that the opportunity to bet on one of the regular season’s most prominent showdowns was fleeting.

Most sports books around town removed the game from their betting boards when news broke earlier this week that the off-field saga of reigning Heisman Trophy quarterback Jameis Winston had a couple new twists. Florida State has spent the week investigating whether Winston took money to sign autographs and going forward with a student judicial hearing to rule if he violated the student conduct code in an alleged sexual assault two years ago.

Winston is still expected to play, but as of Friday morning, CG Technologies and Wynn were the only sports books offering a point spread on the power programs’ primetime matchup. Florida State is an 8.5-point favorite at CG Technologies and a 10-point favorite at Wynn.

The sports books opened the lines at minus-12 and minus-12.5 on Sunday, respectively.

If Winston doesn’t take the field, the line would drop all the way to a field goal or less. There’s a precedent for his absence, as Florida State suspended Winston for the game against Clemson earlier this season after he yelled an obscene phrase in public.

The line opened at Florida State minus-20, went down to minus-12.5 with the suspension announcement and closed all the way at minus-9.5 after money came in on Clemson. The episode illustrated that Winston is the nation’s most significant player to the point spread.

Florida State is in for one of its toughest challenges since starting a current 22-game win streak regardless. The Seminoles have only given less than 10 points on one occasion under Winston when they were minus-5 ahead of a 51-14 blowout victory at Clemson last year.

I’ll analyze and pick the game with the information currently available along with Saturday’s nine other most significant contests. After a 5-5 record last week, the overall mark stands at 38-31-3 against the spread.

Check below for this week’s picks and preview.

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Baylor minus-8.5 at West Virginia, over/under: 80; 9 a.m., Fox Sports 1

The total on this game is, in all likelihood, the highest of the season — and it’s still three points lower than the last time these two teams tangled in Morgantown, W.V.

The over/under was 83 points back in 2012, and the Mountaineers and Bears easily eclipsed it in a 70-63 shootout victory for the home team. Scary part is, the offenses are probably even more lethal this season.

The downturn is more due to the defenses showing some competence, though they might have their work cut out for them on Saturday. Baylor leads the nation with 53 points per game behind senior quarterback Bryce Petty, who led it to a school-high 875 yards in a 73-42 victory over West Virginia last year.

In sheer volume, West Virginia quarterback Clint Trickett has been prolific than Petty this season. He’s third in the nation with 2,203 passing yards.

Pick: West Virginia plus-8.5 The Mountaineers seem to have at least one home upset in them a year. Why not here with the Bears coming off of a taxing and emotional comeback victory over TCU last week?
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Kansas State plus-7.5 at Oklahoma, over/under: 58; 9 a.m., ESPN

Once considered a favorite to land a spot in the inaugural four-team college football playoff, Oklahoma may no longer merit as much as inclusion in a BCS bowl at its current pace.

The Sooners’ offense is in shambles, having gotten outgained in three straight games including by 250 yards against Texas in a fortunate 31-26 victory last week. Gamblers have taken notice, as stock on Oklahoma is plummeting.

Oklahoma opened as a 10-point favorite in this spot, and bettors haven’t been able to get enough of Kansas State ever since to push the spread down nearly an entire field goal. Before the season, Oklahoma posted as a 14-point favorite in this game.

Not wanting to fade the Wildcats as an underdog is understandable, as they’ve covered in four straight when taking points. Their offense remains a work in progress but the defense, led by linebacker Jonathan Truman and safety Dante Barnett, is staunch in allowing just 2.8 yards per carry.

Pick: Oklahoma minus-7.5 Have a hunch this number will be back on the rise again soon, making me want to grab the value on the Sooners while available.
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Texas A&M plus-11.5 at Alabama, over/under: 61.5; 12:30 p.m., CBS

The attitude of these two teams’ fan bases would lead one to believe that they’re sharing the bottom of the SEC standings.

Aggies fans are panicked after two straight losses by more than two touchdowns to Ole Miss and Mississippi State, leaving memories of their attention-capturing 5-0 start distant. Crimson Tide supporters aren’t feeling much better after their team followed a loss to Ole Miss with a lethargic 14-13 victory at Arkansas as 9-point favorites, leaving coach Nick Saban to go on another one of his infamous rants.

They’re probably not happy to see each other on the schedule, as they have the personnel to attack each other’s weaknesses.

Texas A&M is helpless against the run, a problematic characteristic when facing another strong Alabama offensive line blocking for running backs T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. Alabama is weaker than usual defending the pass, perhaps opening a possibility for Texas A&M quarterback Kenny Hill to earn back his “Kenny Trill” nickname by slinging it to sophomore deep-threats Edward Pope and Josh Reynolds.

Pick: Over 61 points Don’t want any part of either side, which is just fine with both offense set to break out.
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Rutgers plus-20 at Ohio State, over/under: 60; 12:30 p.m., ESPN2

Backers of the Scarlet Knights and Buckeyes have frequently found themselves cashing out at betting windows this season.

At a combined 8-3 against the spread, Rutgers and Ohio State have been two of the three most profitable teams to bet on in the Big Ten. And it’s not outlandish to believe both will be at their best Saturday after enjoying bye weeks leading into the showdown.

Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett has gone from liability to luxury during a three-game win and cover streak, where he’s completed 75 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns to one interception. The Buckeyes have beaten their opponents by more than a combined 1,000 yards on the stat sheet in those games.

That makes Rutgers’ usually impressive plus-300 yardage differential look modest. Rutgers quarterback Gary Nova is fifth in the nation in passer rating, just two spots behind Barrett.

With Rutgers joining the conference this season, Saturday’s meeting is the first-ever between the two teams.

Pick: Rutgers plus-20 Three words (again): Too many points.
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Oklahoma State plus-10 at TCU, over/under: 62; 1 p.m., Fox Sports 1

TCU was less than a quarter away from reaching the highest level of prominence for the program since the 1930s, but instead fades back into being relatively forgotten.

The Horned Frogs had a 98 percent win expectancy with 11 minutes to go against Baylor, in the game following their monumental upset over fellow Big 12 favorite Oklahoma, after Marcus Mallet returned a fourth-quarter interception for a touchdown. TCU led 58-37, but managed to allow Baylor to score the game’s final 24 points.

Behind another 300-plus all-purpose yard day from quarterback Trevone Boykin, TCU stayed perfect against the spread as an 8-point underdog. Oklahoma State hasn’t cover in a Big 12 game, slipping past Texas Tech and Kansas as more than two touchdown favorites while pushing minus-17 against Iowa State.

Considering those three are probably the weakest opposition in the league, Oklahoma State’s point spread troubles could be indicative of larger issues. Any positive thoughts on the Cowboys must still come from their narrow season-opening loss to Florida State, when they took the defending state champions to the wire in a 37-31 loss as 18-point underdogs.

Pick: Oklahoma State plus-10 TCU should have no issue beating this number talent-wise, but situationally, Oklahoma State is the play — barely.
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Georgia minus-3.5 at Arkansas, over/under: 55; 1 p.m., SEC Network

Dogs at Hogs is the game of the day for any run-game connoisseur.

They’re the top two rushing teams in the SEC and two of the 10 best in the nation with Arkansas at No. 3 in Football Outsiders’ S&P metric and Georgia close behind at No. 3.

Georgia running back Todd Gurley, who is not expected to play for another week while the university, investigates him for allegedly profiting off of signing autographs, remains first in the conference with 773 yards despite missing a game. Freshman Nick Chubb, who had 38 carries last week, will continue to carry the load for the Bulldogs.

Arkansas has two 500-yard rushers in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins. The difference in the line comes with the teams’ ability to stop the run.

Behind linebackers Amarlo Herrera and Ramik Wilson, Georgia is surrendering just three yards per attempt against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. Arkansas’ front seven hasn’t been as unyielding, giving up 4.5 yards per attempt.

Pick: Georgia minus-3.5 Play this game a couple weeks ago, and Georgia is a touchdown favorite at minimum. Before the year, it was minus-14.5. The value is gone on Arkansas after its undefeated start against the spread.
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Utah State plus-6 at Colorado State, over/under: 55; 4 p.m., CBS Sports Network

There’s a compelling argument that the Aggies and Rams are the two best teams in the Mountain West.

There’s no argument that three best teams in the conference reside in the Mountain division. Boise State, which ranks 47th in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings, separates Colorado State at No. 37 and Utah State at No. 61.

The Rams have covered in four straight contests, while the Aggies’ current covering streak stands at two. They’ve found their success through different avenues.

Utah State has developed a defense-first mentality since losing veteran quarterback Chuckie Keeton early in the year. Linebacking brothers Zach and Nick Vigil have combined for more than 120 tackles and held opponents to 4.6 yards per play.

Colorado State might have the best balanced offense in the nation that no one is talking about. Dee Hart, a former Alabama running back who was among the top recruits in the nation, is averaging 6.5 yards per carry while quarterback Garrett Grayson has thrown for 1,823 yards and 16 touchdowns.

Pick: Utah State plus-6 With a line this tight, I’ll lean to the side with a great defense that no one seems to be picking.
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Tennessee plus-17 at Ole Miss, over/under: 47; 4 p.m., ESPN

The gap between the SEC West and East divisions this season is perceived to be as wide as the North American and Asian coasts of the Pacific Ocean.

Not only has an East team not beaten a West team in four inter-division opportunities so far, but none of them as much as covered either. Tennessee, on the surface, would be a long shot to break the skid.

The Volunteers were seen as a middling team coming into the season, and unlike the Rebels, haven’t done anything to prove otherwise in going 3-3 straight-up and against the spread. Their offense has proven inconsistent but the defense, behind NFL prospect A.J. Johnson at linebacker and ballhawk freshman Todd Kelly at safety, has emerged as a revelation ranking 12th in the nation according to Football Outsiders’ advanced metrics.

They’ll have to be at their best against a clicking Ole Miss offense as the receiving trio of Laquon Treadwell, Vince Sanders and Cody Core have brought out the best in long-time starter Bo Wallace.

Pick: Tennessee plus-17 The Volunteers are poised to give the Rebels a real scare Saturday evening.
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Notre Dame plus-10 at Florida State, over/under: OFF; 5 p.m., ABC

There are two predominant factors gamblers must weigh before picking this game: Whether or not they believe Winston will play, and whether or not they continue to count last season into their analysis of Florida State.

If Winston plays, then the lowest current available line of minus-8.5 is a value for anyone looking to back Florida State. The spread will repost higher at other sports books if Winston is definitively ruled in.

A more cloaked yet just as important question is how to scrutinize the Seminoles. Based on this season alone, Florida State has no business giving Notre Dame more than a touchdown.

Both teams stand at 6-0, but Notre Dame is 5-1 against the spread and rates a spot higher in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings at No. 15 to Florida State’s No. 16. The Seminoles, however, posses a much richer pedigree bred out of last year’s national championship season where they covered all but two of their 14 games.

With most of the players still on the roster, has Florida State simply coasted and not played to its potential midway through the season? If so, it’s capable of beating anyone in the nation by more than a touchdown.

Pick: Notre Dame plus-10 I tend to believe too much stock is put into last year. We’ve seen championship teams disappoint several times in the past during their title-defense season. Notre Dame might win straight-up with or without Winston.
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Stanford minus-3.5 at Arizona State, over/under: 54.5; 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Many have forgotten that the last meeting between these two teams came in the 2013 Pac-12 Championship Game.

It wasn’t as if the showdown was anything memorable, as Stanford rolled to its second lopsided victory against Arizona State in the season despite getting bet down to a 3-point underdog. The Cardinal burst the Sun Devils 38-14 three months after winning a regular-season home game 42-28 as 6-point favorites.

Stanford has now won and covered six in a row in the series with Arizona State not prevailing in a matchup between the teams since 2008. While the Cardinal defense is better than any past version — ranking second to Louisville in most statistics including yards per game, yards per play and Football Outsiders’ F/+ —the offense has regressed.

Without once surpassing 300 passing yards, Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan hasn’t taken the leap some predicted this season. Arizona State gets its own senior quarterback, Taylor Kelly, back for this game.

It could be a dangerous pairing with receiver Jaelen Strong, who not only pulled down the Hail Mary to beat USC two weeks ago but has also established himself as one of the best receivers in the nation. Strong has 41 catches for 614 yards and five touchdowns this season.

Pick: Arizona State plus-3.5 Stanford hasn’t looked as vicious on the road this season, failing to cover in both opportunities.