Vegas pick ’em: NFL week 9 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 30, 2014 | 2 a.m.

As a lifelong connoisseur of interesting yet probably meaningless statistics, a split I’ve posted in this project picking every NFL game against the spread comes off as striking.

After the Minnesota Vikings outlasted the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-13 in overtime as a 2-point underdog to finish off last Sunday’s early slate of games, I felt a familiar emotion and desire. I was disappointed with a 3-7 start to week 8, but encouraged by the possibility of a rally to save face.

Sure enough, the picks in the column went a perfect 5-0 in the last five games.

It was the fifth straight week that I had a losing record following the early games, but salvaged respectability with a winning record in the last handful of contests.

The pick’em has gone 15-31-1 against the spread in games with kickoffs Thursday through Sunday morning since week 4. In the late and primetime games, I’m 20-6 against the spread in the same timeframe.

Put it all together, and we’re sitting at a cozy 63-56-2 against the spread for the season. That’s more than acceptable as betting every game is an unwinnable strategy long-term.

But as far as my favorite statistic? I’m 7-1 in my top-listed play of the week going into week 9.

All of the outrageous records, both positive and negative, will balance out in the end. But they’re quite intriguing in the interim.

Check out the week 9 picks below listed as always in three separate confidence categories with attached individual records and come back Saturday for the weekly game of the week column for the Sun’s handicapping contest.

Plays (16-13)

New York Jets plus-10 at Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs’ lone weakness is their rush defense, which ranks 24th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The Jets run the ball more efficiently than any team they’ve faced, rating sixth in rush offense by DVOA, and figure to only get better with Michael Vick at quarterback.

Baltimore Ravens pick’em at Pittsburgh Steelers Disappointed to have missed getting plus points with Baltimore in this column, but it remains a much superior team to Pittsburgh. The Ravens’ defense limited the Steelers’ offense more than any other opponent this season in the first meeting between the teams, a 26-6 victory in week 2.

Miami Dolphins minus-1.5 vs. San Diego Chargers Over the last month, the Dolphins have been one of the best teams in the NFL at 3-1 straight-up and against the spread with the only loss a setback to the Packers in the final seconds. I’m willing to keep betting them until the betting market adjusts.

Leans (26-19-1)

Philadelphia Eagles minus-2 at Houston Texans By virtue of a paper-thin schedule, the Texans are overvalued. Houston’s list of victories — Titans, Bills, Raiders and Redskins — is the most unimpressive of any team .500 or better.

Dallas Cowboys minus-3.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals Cardinals’ point differential of plus-25 is more befitting of a 4-3 record, not a 6-1 team. The breaks are bound to start going against them, so I’m willing to gamble Tony Romo plays by grabbing the short spread.

New England Patriots plus-3.5 vs. Denver Broncos Not rushing to bet against Denver in any scenario, but the number makes it unavoidable in this situation. The last time New England gave this many points at Gillette Stadium, Corey Dillon was its leading rusher and Mike Vrabel the top tackler.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-7 at Cleveland Browns Brown’s offensive regression — they’re averaging less than two yards per carry in the last two weeks with quarterback Brian Hoyer completing only 50 percent of his passes — doesn’t pair well with an already mediocre defense. Cleveland is not a team to trust laying a touchdown.

Guesses (21-24-1)

New Orleans Saints minus-2.5 at Carolina Panthers Each of the Panthers’ three losses against the spread this season have come against teams with a top-10 passing offense, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Drew Brees and the Saints, ranked ninth in passing offense by DVOA, will be the fourth.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-11.5 at Cincinnati Bengals Hard to imagine the Bengals mustering anywhere close to the emotion they showed in last week’ pivotal division tilt with the Ravens. Line looks inflated with the improvement of the Jaguars, which outgained a third straight opponent last week.

San Francisco 49ers minus-9.5 vs. Saint Louis Rams Have to believe a coach as astute as Jim Harbuagh made the most of a bye week off of an embarrassing 42-17 loss to Denver. It would be a mistake to overlook Saint Louis’ trio of injuries along the offensive line, including to Jake Long and Rodger Saffold.

Seattle Seahawks minus-15 vs. Oakland Raiders Unafraid of giving big number with the Seahawks, which have covered spreads of more than two touchdowns in two of three opportunities under coach Pete Carroll. And none of those teams came in as angry and desperate as this week’s Seahawks after three subpar showings and losses against the spread.

Indianapolis Colts minus-3 at New York Giants Line feels dead-on, so grabbing the three with the Colts before minus-3.5 inevitably invades every betting board in town. Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck is 11-1 straight-up and against the spread off of a loss in his career.

Minnesota Vikings pick’em vs. Washington Redskins Two of the top 10 teams in the league in Football Outsiders’ metric for variance, it’s hard to get a handle on what to expect with this matchup of mediocrity. So I’ll blindly take the home team against a visitor playing off of a Monday Night Football appearance.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.