Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

Vegas pick ’em: NFL week 3 winners against the spread

Buffalo Bills

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Miami Dolphins tight end Charles Clay, bottom, is tackled by Buffalo Bills cornerback Corey Graham during the second half of an NFL game Sunday, Sept. 14, 2014, in Orchard Park, N.Y.

Talking Points is feeling a kinship with the Buffalo Bills.

No one expected either of us to start the season like this. The lowly perceived Bills won their first two games as underdogs, with the blog cashing on them covering on both occasions, to become the most surprising 2-0 team in the NFL.

Likewise, the blog has churned out a scorching 20-11-1 overall record picking every game on the NFL schedule.

Now we’re both faced with the same monstrous challenge — regression. The Bills aren’t going to finish the season 16-0. Or 13-3 for that matter.

Talking Points isn’t going to cash on 65 percent of games for the whole season. Or even 55 percent, which is better than the best gamblers in the world could do choosing a side for every game.

The start is, however, an undeniable positive step toward realistic goals. The Bills should strive for their first playoff appearance of the new millennium. I’d like to finish above 50 percent for the regular season.

Check below for picks on all of this week’s games, separated as always into three categories with individual records at the top.

Plays (4-3)

Washington Redskins plus-7 at Philadelphia Eagles Skeptical of quarterback Kirk Cousins but impressed by a defense that ranks No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric through two weeks. Let’s also not get too carried away with the Eagles, the first team to start 2-0 despite trailing by 14 in the second half of both games.

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-7 vs. Indianapolis Colts Haven’t seen any reason to back off of my preseason position on the Colts as a bet-against team. This line is inflated by a couple of points solely by the names on the jerseys.

New York Giants plus-2.5 vs. Houston Texans As poor as the Giants have looked, they were a 4-point favorite in this game three weeks ago before the season started. An NFL-worst minus-6 turnover margin has doomed New York while Houston has benefited from a second-best plus-5. That’s an always-volatile statistic.

 

Leans (11-4)

San Francisco 49ers minus-2.5 at Arizona Cardinals San Francisco had four more turnovers than the Bears on Sunday night and still almost won. Here’s also a nice space for a reminder that Drew Stanton is likely Arizona’s starting quarterback.

Pittsburgh Steelers plus-3.5 at Carolina Panthers The Panthers went from getting no respect the first two weeks with the bulk of the money on their opponents to becoming one of the hottest picks with lopsided action on them to beat the Steelers. Going the contrarian route has worked so far, so let’s keep it going with a Pittsburgh team with extra rest.

Green Bay Packers plus-2.5 at Detroit Lions Green Bay hasn’t lost two straight to Detroit since 1998. No one is thrilled about how the Packers have looked through two weeks, but giving them nearly a field goal against the Lions feels like an overreaction.

Atlanta Falcons minus-6 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Have no faith in a Buccaneers secondary that’s giving up seven yards per pass attempt — against the likes of Austin Davis and Derek Anderson. That’s before even getting to an offense with a mediocre ceiling.

New Orleans Saints minus-10 vs. Minnesota Vikings No reason to panic over the 0-2 Saints, who are a bounce or two away from being undefeated. They’ve also won their past 17 games in the Superdome under coach Sean Payton, going 16-0-1 against the spread.

Tennessee Titans plus-7 at Cincinnati Bengals Both teams rank in the top 10 in yards per play and opponents yards per play. They’re similar enough, therefore, that a touchdown line is too much.

 

Guesses (5-4-1)

Denver Broncos plus-5 at Seattle Seahawks The Broncos had been favored in 32 straight games before this weekend. And now they’re getting more than a field goal? Taking on principle.

Chicago Bears plus-3 at New York Jets Typically caution against taking the public underdog, but the action on the Bears should be so fierce that this number is pushed down 1.5 or 2 points by kickoff. Inclined to take the value and play against the Jets, who are 14-16 against the spread as a home favorite under coach Rex Ryan.

Baltimore Ravens minus-1 at Cleveland Browns First reaction was to take the home underdog, but a closer look reveals the Browns might be outmatched. They’ve surrendered 6.6 yards per play, second-worst in the NFL, and haven’t played a defense nearly on the level of Baltimore’s yet.

St. Louis Rams plus-1.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys Don’t think the Cowboys deserve to be road favorites against any team in the league. OK, maybe the Raiders.

San Diego Chargers plus-2.5 at Buffalo Bills Don’t fear the travel, as the Chargers twice ventured into the Eastern time zone as touchdown underdogs against playoff teams last season. They won both contests straight up.

Miami Dolphins minus-4 vs. Kansas City Chiefs There’s not a single Kansas City unit that’s not dealing with some sort of a major injury. The betting public typically overvalues singular injuries, but a combination of ailments is what can really cause damage.

Oakland Raiders plus-14.5 at New England Patriots Want nothing to do with this game, but it’s hard to ignore that the Patriots are 2-6 in eight games as a double-digit favorite over the past two years.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy