College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 5

Supervisor Thomas Alexander, left, and super writer Doug Stone work at the Race & Sports Book at Green Valley Ranch in Henderson on Tuesday, March 13, 2012.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Sept. 26, 2014 | 11 a.m.

College football eases into conference play this year.

With most of the premier non-conference matchups completed until rivalry games at the end of the year, week five is often the time teams start to settle in for the contests that really matter. In 2014, week five is also about uneven matchups.

There’s not a single game on Saturday’s schedule between ranked teams. Of the 33 games involving teams from one of the five major conferences, there are only three with a point-spread of a touchdown or less.

If there’s a need to skip a Saturday of college football in the fall, this week presents the opportunity. The action ramps back up next weekend with several marquee showdowns.

The underwhelming slate won’t slow Talking Points from previewing and picking the 10 biggest games from a betting perspective. Unfortunately my college picks aren’t off to nearly as strong of a start as the NFL counterparts.

Another .500 week has me at 19-20-1 against the spread for the season. It’s an inherent disadvantage only picking a certain 10 games every week, so I’m just aiming to finish better than 50 percent. Now would be a nice time to get on the right side of the hump.

Check below for a full betting preview and picks of college football’s week five.

Tennessee plus-17 at Georgia; over/under: 55.5, 9 a.m., ESPN

Tennessee’s recent downturn, which has included no bowl appearances in the last three seasons, hasn’t done much to affect its rivalry with Georgia.

Each of the last three meetings between the SEC East foes have been decided by a touchdown or less, with Tennessee covering a plus-13.5 betting line the last two years. The spread is boosted this season despite the Volunteers having clearly made strides in coach Butch Jones’ second season.

Their offensive strength, however, is a deep core of pass-catchers that’s cut into for the game with the Bulldogs. Both Von Pearson and Josh Smith are doubtful to play, leaving more of the onus on star sophomore Marquez North.

Georgia’s position of power is undoubtedly running back. Todd Gurley, Sony Michel and Nick Chubb are all averaging more than nine yards per carry.

Tennessee has the best rushing defense Georgia has faced, ranking 30th in the nation in Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings, that could enable it to improve its series record to 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 years.

Pick: Georgia minus-17 The Bulldogs got as much rest as the Volunteers, which were on a bye, last week as many starters were pulled early in a 66-0 win over Troy. Expecting them to come in fresh and focused after last year’s overtime scare against Tennessee.
Maryland plus-4 at Indiana; over/under: 69.6, 10:30 a.m., Big Ten Network

Some have dared to call Indiana’s 31-27 victory over Missouri last week one of the biggest wins in school history.

The odds digress, as the Hoosiers were only a 14-point underdog against the Tigers. They’ve pulled outright upsets taking more than two touchdowns three times in the last decade alone, but not since 2006 when they defeated Iowa as 19-point underdogs.

Indiana has only come into a conference game as a favorite four times since that upset eight years ago, going 1-3 against the spread in such contests. The odds had to be astronomical that the fifth instance would come against Maryland, which makes its Big Ten debut at Memorial Stadium.

The Terrapins may have played better in their only loss, a 41-38 setback against West Virginia as a 3-point favorite, than either of the wins against Football Bowl Subdivsion opponents. They took a victory over Syracuse in their most recent outing despite getting outgained by 220 yards, two weeks after committing six turnovers in a win against South Florida.

Indiana has also been inconsistent, losing 45-42 as 8.5-point favorites against Bowling Green before the Missouri breakthrough.

Pick: Indiana minus-4 No real feel for the game, but think Indiana running back Tevin Campbell is the best player on the field.
Florida State minus-19.5 at North Carolina State; over/under: 58, 12:30 p.m., ABC

Florida State extended both streaks — the good one and the bad one.

The Seminoles narrowly won their national-best 19th game in a row in overtime last week against Clemson. They easily lost their fourth straight against the spread dating back to last year’s national championship game against Auburn, in the 23-17 escape as 12-point favorites.

By starting 0-3 against the spread this season, Florida State has already equaled its betting losses for the entire 2013 season. North Carolina State was the last team to beat Florida State straight-up, when Mike Glennon outplayed E.J. Manuel in a 17-16 win as 17.5-point underdogs two years ago.

It was the Seminoles’ sixth straight trip to Raliegh, N.C., that resulted in a loss against the spread. The last time Florida State beat the number on the road against North Carolina State was a 58-14 walloping in 2000, the year senior quarterback Chris Weinke won the Heisman.

With losing records against the spread in three straight seasons, North Carolina State is usually not a profitable bet. Against one of the easiest schedules in the nation so far, the undefeated Wolf Pack are just 2-2 against the number.

Pick: North Carolina State plus-19.5 Hoping it’s safe to pick against Florida State for one more week before its ratings are properly adjusted.
Texas A&M minus-8.5 vs. Arkansas in Arlington, Texas; over/under: 70.5, 12:30 p.m., CBS

To this point, both teams’ seasons have played out remarkably the same.

The Razorbacks and the Aggies have trounced three straight opponents apiece after opening the season with their only true competition. The difference comes in how those affairs played out.

Texas A&M registered what arguably remains the most impressive win of the season by smashing South Carolina 52-28 as a 10.5-point underdog. Arkansas stumbled against Auburn, losing 45-21 to fall to the 17-point spread.

The total is five points higher than when they met last year, despite both defenses being significantly upgraded. Then again, that was bound to happen by default after the two ranked 13th and 14th in the SEC in nearly every defensive category last year.

The offenses are also more spectacular. Texas A&M has put up a school-record 221 points through four games. Although quarterback Kenny Hill is getting all the applause, it’s a supporting cast including running backs Trey Williams and Brandon Williams and receivers Malcome Kennedy and Josh Reynolds enabling his success.

Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen, likewise, has played terrific but running backs Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams are both chipping in better than 7.5 yards per carry.

Pick: Texas A&M minus-8.5 Some say the Aggies are overrated; I would argue it’s the Razorbacks. This line was minus-11 over the summer, leaving little reason for the shift towards Arkansas.
Stanford minus-8 at Washington; over/under: 48, 1:15 p.m., Fox

Stanford is the best one-loss team in the nation.

That much seems hardly debatable. The Cardinal, for instance, still ranks No. 7 in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings — four spots ahead of the next team with a loss — after a 13-10 loss to USC as 2.5-point favorites two weeks ago.

Stanford hasn’t given up a single point in its other two games behind a defense that boasts linebacker A.J. Tarpley, defensive end Henry Anderson and safety Jordan Richards. The unit ranks first in the nation by many measures, including Football Outsiders S&P.

Washington had aspirations of lifting its defense to those levels with linebacker Shaq Thompson and cornerback Marcus Peters leading the way. It hasn’t come close to working out so far.

The Huskies’ largest transgression was giving up 52 points to Eastern Washington. They bounced back for their best performance in the following week, beating Illinois 44-19 as 13-point favorites, before barely failing to cover minus-35 in a 45-14 win over Georgia State.

Problem is, everyone has identified Stanford’s misleading record and Washington’s underwhelming start. This spread was a whole touchdown lower, Stanford minus-1, over the summer.

Pick: Washington plus-8 Stanford should win, but trust Washington coach Chris Petersen to stay close and be crafty in his first significant matchup at the helm.
Missouri plus-6 at South Carolina; over/under: 63.5, 4 p.m., ESPN

South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier launched into one of his infamous tirades after his team slipped past lowly Vanderbilt 48-34 as 23-point favorites, allowing two kick returns for touchdowns, last week.

The Gamecocks traditionally respond for their Ol’ Ball Coach. See: 2013 Missouri game.

South Carolina trailed 17-0 going into the fourth quarter before rallying for an overtime win. The 27-24 Gamecocks win went down as one of the games of the year, and the Tigers’ only regular-season loss.

Missouri coach Gary Pinkel is traditionally more reserved, though his methods seem to get the best out of teams after low points too. The Tigers are 10-3 against the spread following a loss since 2011.

None of those losses, however, were as ugly as a home upset to Indiana. The Hoosiers stunned the Tigers, which were 14-point favorites, with a 31-27 win last week.

Missouri’s defense, expected to be one of the SEC’s better units, gave up nearly 500 yards to the Big Ten afterthought. The Tigers have gotten a good pass rush on the season, ranking in the top 10 in the nation with 15 sacks.

They get back star Markus Golden this week, and the senior defensive end could spell trouble for sometimes-skittish South Carolina quarterback Dylan Thompson.

Pick: Missouri plus-6 Think this game stays within a touchdown either way, so I’ll snag the points.
Duke plus-6.5 at Miami; over/under: 61, 4:30 p.m., ESPN2

Sports books used to break their betting boards trying to post spreads high enough to entice action on the Blue Devils in their biannual trip to play the Hurricanes.

Before this year, the average spread on Duke at Miami was 24 points. Seeing the game hold at less than a touchdown might be a culture shock.

But Duke probably deserves it after smashing Miami 48-30 as 3.5-point home underdogs last year and eventually capturing the ACC Coastal Division championship.

The Blue Devils appear to have picked up where they left off last season, covering three of their first four games to make their against the spread record 13-4 dating back to last season. The offense is clicking with quarterback Anthony Boone and running back Shaun Wilson with the defense coming along to give up only nine points per game.

The competition is where questions arise as Duke has beaten Tulane, Kansas, Troy (the lone team it didn’t cover against) and Elon. Miami has played tougher opponents, namely Louisville and Nebraska, but failed to cover against both of them.

Miami freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya is just outside the nation’s top 20 with 1,052 passing yards but has tossed seven interceptions. The Hurricanes’ passing defense has also let them down, ranking 81st in the nation in Football Outisders’ S&P ratings.

Pick: Miami minus-6.5 Hurricanes running back Duke Johnson is due for a breakout, and his namesake’s rushing defense should provide an opportunity.
Notre Dame minus-10 vs. Syracuse in East Rutherford, N.J.; over/under: 51, 5 p.m., ABC

Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson is in the unenviable position of being most known for his worst moments.

Aside from his suspension for the entire season last year, Golson is mostly associated with Notre Dame’s 42-14 blowout loss to Alabama in the 2012 National Championship. It’s mostly unfair when realizing it’s the only college football game Golson has ever lost as a starter.

Yes, Golson is a perfect 15-0 straight-up in the regular season after leading the Irish to three straight wins to start 2014. He’s also 9-6 against the spread.

He’s played efficiently this season, completing 64 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and no interceptions. Turnovers are what doomed Syracuse in its first loss and non-cover of the season last week.

It committed a costly interception and fumble that Maryland turned into points to win 34-20 in a game Syracuse utterly dominated. Unlike Notre Dame, Syracuse is pass-challenged but running the ball well.

Quarterback Terrel Hunt and running back Prince Tyson-Gulley are both averaging better than seven yards per carry. Syracuse is also in the top 10 in the nation with four sacks per game behind big-blitzing linebacker Cameron Lynch.

Purdue planted Golson four times last week, which made coach Brian Kelly announce that the offensive line aside from local Bishop Gorman graduate Ronnie Stanley at left tackle would be shifted.

Pick: Syracuse plus-10 Not quite ready to buy in on Notre Dame just yet.
Washington State plus-13.5 at Utah; over/under: 65.5, 5 p.m., Pac-12 Network

Utah demonstrated once again it has part one down. Utes’ fans just hope their team can show some progress in the more-important part two

Utah has started 3-0 both straight-up and against the spread to improve its non-conference records since joining the Pac-12 three years ago to 12-1 straight-up, 10-3 against the spread. The problem has come in conference play, where the Utes are 9-18 straight-up and 10-17 against the spread.

They’ve seemingly had trouble adjusting to the sped-up offenses littered throughout the west coast. That’s not an ideal issue against Washington State.

The Cougars’ 1-3 start — though they’re 2-2 against the spread — has nothing to do with offensive deficiencies, just defensive lapses. Quarterback Connor Halliday leads the nation with 1,901 passing yards, which is 301 yards more than anyone else.

Receiver Isiah Myers already has five touchdown catches. Coach Mike Leach’s typical high-flying offense may meet its match in Utah’s defense, which is the fifth in the nation against the pass according to Football Outsiders.

It’s also fifth in allowing opponents to only 3.9 yards per play. The Utes have standouts at every level on defense including Nate Orchard up front, Jason Whittingham at linebacker and the combination of Eric Rowe and Darion Orphey at cornerback.

Pick: Washington State plus-13.5 Three words: Too many points.
Oregon State plus-8.5 at USC; over/under: 56, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

The schedule has granted the Trojans two weeks to stew over falling on the wrong end of possibly the biggest upset of the season so far.

USC headed into a bye week after its ill-fated trip East, where Boston College overcame a plus-17 spread to win 37-31. The running game doomed the Trojans, as they were out-rushed by more than 400 yards.

Oregon State should be more accommodating on the ground. The Beavers’ biggest weakness is their rush defense, as it ranks 112th in the nation according to Football Outiders S&P ratings.

They’re capable of running the ball well themselves with Storm Woods and Terron Wood, but often prefer to pass. Senior quarterback Sean Mannion is only behind a pair of USC stars, Carson Palmer and Matt Barkely, in the Pac-12 record book for passing yards.

USC is more competent against the pass, ranking 37th as opposed to 115th versus the run per S&P. That rating is skewed because of the Boston College fiasco, but nonetheless, USC will be looking for a bounce back game led by defensive end Leonard Williams and linebacker Hayes Pullard.

Pick: USC minus-8.5 Was bullish on the Trojans all offseason, so it wouldn’t be right to jump off after one upset loss.