Vegas Play of the Day: Michigan State vs. Duke

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, April 4, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Both of this year’s Final Four games are incredibly difficult to call.

I've already struggled to pick the pair in a preview but for the South Point-lined Play of the Day, which started with $10,000 bankroll, I’m going in a different direction.

Michigan State vs. Duke over 138.5: $330 to win $300

After playing mediocre defense all season, Duke has turned into an impenetrable force on that end in the NCAA Tournament. The Blue Devils have held opponents to shooting 37 percent from the field, putting all four of their games under the total.

But sports books finally adjusted too far. Michigan State’s offense is clicking at a high level and will inevitably heat up a couple times throughout the game to get Duke to revert to its regular-season ways.

The Spartans have already done it once against the Blue Devils this season. The total was six points higher, at 144.5, when the two met in November and the game flew over in Duke’s 81-71 victory.

And that was despite Michigan State missing 15 of its 20 attempts from beyond the 3-point arc. It won’t take much for the Spartans to shoot better in the Final Four.

Duke will speed up the tempo when it feels pressure, which will lead to more possessions and ultimately more points. It wouldn’t surprise me if either team covers, but it would be a shock if the Blue Devils involve themselves in another defensive battle.

Standings: Keefer (72-71-2, $10,307), Bern (71-66-1, $9,646), Brewer (64-77-3, $2,785)

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.