Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

College football by the odds: Team-by-team betting preview of the SEC

Laquon Treadwell

ASSOCIATED PRESS

In this Nov. 1, 2014, photo, Mississippi wide receiver Laquon Treadwell reacts as he is taken off the field after being injured in a 35-31 loss to Auburn in Oxford, Miss.

Note: Talking Points will run weekly betting previews previewing all of the major conferences weekly leading up to college football's kickoff. This is part two of the series. Check out part one here

As far as the South is concerned, New Year’s 2015 will forever live in infamy.

The three days around the holiday, including both New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, featured an embarrassment from an export the region prides the most. Southeastern Conference football experienced its reckoning.

Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and LSU all lost their bowl games. Not only did they all lose, but none of five teams once ranked together among the top 10 in the country came close to covering — failing to beat the spread by an average of 15 points per game.

It felt of little consolation that the other seven SEC teams to play in bowls all won and covered to extend imposing streaks. The SEC now hasn’t suffered a losing bowl season in 12 years, which includes nine straight years when the conference was at least .500 against the spread in the postseason.

But most of the nation had awaited the comeuppance of SEC supporters’ hubris for years, and found it in the dawning of a new year. Going back to 2013, the SEC has now lost five straight BCS or New Year’s Six bowl games.

The conference’s biggest loss, however, might be the benefit of the doubt. Instead of penciling in the SEC as the best conference in football going into the 2015 season, pundits are questioning whether others have caught up.

Expect enhanced scrutiny on SEC teams’ games against other major conference opponents this year. The Golden Nugget opened lines on nine such contests as part of its annual games of the year point-spread reveals, and continued to set a high standard for the SEC.

The SEC team is favored in six of the games with an average spread of minus-7. Inflated numbers haven’t slowed the SEC in the past as, even with the bowl disappointment, the SEC went 55-12 straight-up and 38-28-1 against the spread in the nonconference last year.

The totals since 2006 now sit at a formidable 434-95 straight-up and 265-244-8 against the spread. Sports books see the SEC answering the challenge and separating itself as home to the nation’s best college football once again.

At the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, 30 teams are offered at 100-to-1 or less to win the national championship. A third of them are in the SEC, with seven of the 10 listed at less than 100-to-1.

The victims of the New Year’s massacre will have a great shot at redemption for their conference, with a combined 64 percent likelihood one of the five wins the SEC title this year, according to the odds. Alabama and Auburn alone make up 46 percent of the probability as the prohibitive favorites.

Check below for a team-by-team preview of the SEC including betting odds and analysis as well as picks at the bottom. Last year, Talking Points went 102-80-2 against the spread in college football picking the 10 biggest games each week and every bowl game. Future prices come from the Superbook, while win CG Technology provides win totals.

Alabama

Odds to win the SEC: plus-175

Win total: 9.5 (over minus-140, under plus-110)

Week 1 line: Alabama minus-10.5 vs. Wisconsin in Dallas

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Sept. 19 Alabama minus-9.5 vs. Ole Miss; Oct. 3 Alabama minus-2 at Georgia; Oct. 10 Alabama minus-8.5 vs. Arkansas; Oct. 17 Alabama minus-5.5 at Texas A&M; Oct. 24 Alabama minus-9 vs. Tennessee; Nov. 7 LSU plus-9 at Alabama; Nov. 14 Alabama minus-7.5 at Mississippi State; Nov. 28 Alabama minus-2 at Auburn

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Alabama quarterback Jake Coker (14) warms up before an NCAA college football game against Southern Mississippi on Saturday, Sept. 13, 2014, in Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Overview: Expectations have never been lower for coach Nick Saban at Alabama — not since his second season by the odds at least. The over/under 9.5 wins is the lowest preseason total for an Alabama team since 2008, which speaks to what a juggernaut Saban has built. The Crimson Tide have only failed to eclipse 9.5 wins in the regular season once in the last seven years, in 2010, and they got to 10 with a 49-7 Capital One Bowl pasting of Michigan State. They’re the third choice, behind Ohio State and TCU, to win the national championship in most sports books this year. They’re available at 16-to-1 price offshore to go a perfect 15-0.

Returning just 10 starters, the second fewest in the SEC, isn’t as big of a concern as it would be at any other school. Not only does the Crimson Tide load up on recruiting talent every year, but their last two national championships have come in years where they’ve been at the bottom of the preseason experience ranks. Alabama’s ground game should be as deadly as ever with bruiser Derrick Henry and speedster Kenyan Drake back. Florida State transfer Jake Coker, a once highly touted recruit who’s waited behind the likes of Jameis Winston and Blake Sims, is the favorite in a quarterback competition. The Crimson Tide currently projects to give points in every regular season game, which would bring their steak to 80 straight games as a favorite.

Auburn

Odds to win the SEC: 3-to-1

Win total: 8.5 (over minus-167, under plus-137)

Week 1 line: Auburn minus-10.5 vs. Louisville in Atlanta

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Sept. 19 Auburn plus-3.5 at LSU; Sept. 26 Auburn minus-9.5 vs. Mississippi State; Oct. 15 Auburn minus-9 at Kentucky; Oct. 24 Auburn plus-1 at Arkansas; Oct. 31 Auburn minus-7 vs. Ole Miss; Nov. 7 Auburn minus-2 at Texas A&M; Nov. 14 Auburn minus-3 vs. Georgia; Nov. 28 Auburn plus-2 vs. Alabama

Overview: The Tigers are one of the big movers in the futures market, going from tied for ninth at 25-to-1 to win the national championship to tied for fifth at 15-to-1. They’re the trendiest bet in the SEC, which must mean gamblers either don’t care or can’t remember what a horror they were to back last season. Auburn was an SEC-worst 4-9 against the spread in 2014, failing to cover seven of its last eight games, despite similar hype in the preseason. Last year’s strength was offense, where the Tigers lose every bit as much as the rival Crimson Tide with their top passer, rusher and receiver departed. But junior quarterback Jeremy Johnson, who’s completed nearly 75 percent of his passes as a backup, is widely being referred to as an upgrade over Nick Marshall. The highest paid assistant in college football, Will Muschamp, arrives to fix a defense that gave up 5.7 yards per play, third worst in the SEC. The most useful defenders, including lineman Carl Lawson and linebacker Cassanova McKinzy, return to spur the revival.

Georgia

Odds to win the SEC: 6-to-1

Win total: 9 (over minus-140, under plus-110)

Week 1 line: Georgia minus-35 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

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Georgia running back Nick Chubb (27) runs a drill during NCAA college football practice, Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2015, in Athens, Ga.

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Sept. 19 Georgia minus-13.5 vs. South Carolina; Oct. 3 Georgia plus-2 vs. Alabama; Oct. 10 Georgia pick’em at Tennessee; Oct. 17 Georgia minus-8.5 vs. Missouri; Oct. 31 Georgia minus-10.5 vs. Florida in Jacksonville; Nov. 14 Georgia plus-3 at Auburn; Nov. 28 Georgia minus-1 at Georgia Tech

Overview: With the West division stuffed full of parity, some metrics give Georgia the highest percentage chance of any team to win the SEC because of its superiority over the East. ESPN’s Football Power Index, for instance, calculates the Bulldogs’ chances at better than 25 percent. The betting market isn’t in harmony, as Georgia’s 6-to-1 price implies just a 10.5 percent chance of winning its first conference title since 2005. Bettors might be bored with the Bulldogs’ solid but unspectacular results, which include profitable against the spread records in three of the last four years. Georgia is the SEC’s winningest team since the turn of the century, a span in which Mark Richt has won the third-most games of any coach ever at a school for 15 years. This year’s Bulldogs fit in with the SEC theme of returning talent all across the field except at quarterback, where Brice Ramsey is the presumptive favorite in a three-man race. Fellow sophomore Nick Chubb is one of the top three choices to win the Heisman Trophy offshore at 12-to-1 after averaging 7.1 yards per carry last season. Georgia will need to perform better when taking points as it hasn’t pulled an outright upset or even covered as an underdog in five straight games dating back to 2009.

Ole Miss

Odds to win the SEC: 8-to-1

Win total: 8.5 (over minus-115, under minus-115)

Week 1 line: None yet (vs. Tennessee-Martin)

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Sept. 19 Ole Miss plus-9.5 at Alabama; Oct. 3 Ole Miss minus-6 at Florida; Oct. 24 Ole Miss minus-5.5 vs. Texas A&M; Oct. 31 Ole Miss plus-7 at Auburn; Nov. 7 Ole Miss minus-3 vs. Arkansas; Nov. 21 Ole Miss minus-4 vs. LSU; Nov. 28 Ole Miss minus-1 at Mississippi State

Overview: The Rebels won and covered in each of their first seven games last season before injuries derailed them from potential inclusion in the inaugural college football playoff. They lost both their best defensive player, lineman Robert Nkemdiche, and offensive player, receiver Laquon Treadwell, in a span of a week and went 2-4 straight-up, 1-5 against the spread down the stretch. Nkemdiche, Treadwell and an intimidating 14 other starters return this season. Bettors should be cautious about betting against Ole Miss as underdogs, as coach Hugh Freeze is 10-4 against the spread, 6-7 straight-up when taking points in his three years at the helm. Ole Miss won all three regular-season games it entered as an underdog last year, including the monumental 23-17 upset of Alabama.

Tennessee

Odds to win the SEC: 10-to-1

Win total: 8 (over minus-125, under minus-105)

Week 1 line: Tennessee minus-21 vs. Bowling Green

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Sept. 12 Tennessee pick’em vs. Okalahoma; Sept. 26 Tennessee minus-3 at Florida; Oct. 3 Tennessee minus-1 vs. Arkansas; Oct. 10 Tennessee pick’em vs. Georgia; Oct. 24 Tennessee plus-9 at Alabama; Nov. 21 Tennessee plus-2.5 at Missouri; Nov. 28 Tennessee minus-21 vs. Vanderbilt

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Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs looks for a receiver in the third quarter of an NCAA college football game against Vanderbilt, Saturday, Nov. 29, 2014, in Nashville, Tenn. Tennessee won 24-17.

Overview: Forget Alabama vs. Auburn. Georgia vs. Tennessee, set as a dead pick’em, looks like the most significant SEC game on paper going into the season with sports books labeling the pair as the two true contenders in the East division. Tennessee hasn’t found itself in a contest so anticipated in ages, having gone 14-34 straight-up and 22-26 against the spread in conference play since forcing coach Phillip Fulmer out seven years ago. Bettors back the buzz indicating the Volunteers turn it around this year with a conference-high 18 returning starters. They’ve seen the biggest move on their over win total of any team in the SEC. It won’t take long to find out whether the action was justified as Tennessee’s first four real games — apologies to Bowling Green and Western Carolina — are installed with lines of a field goal or less. That includes Tennessee laying three at Florida, a team it hasn’t beaten in a decade.

LSU

Odds to win the SEC: 10-to-1

Win total: 8.5 (over Even, under minus-130)

Week 1 line: None yet (vs. McNeese State)

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Sept. 12 LSU minus-3 at Mississippi State; Sept. 19 LSU minus-3.5 vs. Auburn; Sept. 26 LSU minus-20 at Syracuse; Oct. 10 LSU minus-8 at South Carolina; Oct. 17 LSU minus-14 vs. Florida; Nov. 7 LSU plus-9 at Alabama; Nov. 14 LSU minus-6 vs. Arkansas; Nov. 21 LSU plus-4 at Ole Miss; Nov. 28 LSU minus-7.5 vs. Texas A&M

Overview: Running back Leonard Fournette, who tallied more than 1,000 yards in his freshman season, is listed at a 12-to-1 price to win the Heisman offshore. Throw Fournette in with one the nation’s better collection of wide receivers — headlined by returners Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre and top recruit Tyron Johnson — and LSU is set at the skill positions. The question is if anyone can get them the ball, as quarterback competitors Brandon Harris and Anthony Jennings were equally ineffective last year. Bettors are as conflicted as everyone else. LSU has gotten slight action on its under win total — though coach Les Miles has only failed to beat 8.5 wins twice in 10 years — and its national championship odds rose from 20- to 30-to-1. But at the same time, the Tigers were a popular bet in the games of the year market, particularly in back-to-back November games. LSU moved from a 1- to a 6-point favorite almost immediately against Arkansas, and the next week’s game at Ole Miss went from a pick’em to minus-4.

Arkansas

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In this photo taken Sept. 6, 2014, Arkansas running back Alex Collins (3) carries in the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Nicholls in Fayetteville, Ark. The Razorbacks, led by running backs Collins and Jonathan Williams hope to carry the momentum of Arkansas' 73-7 victory ahead to next week at Texas Tech.

Odds to win the SEC: 10-to-1

Win total: 8 (over minus-127, under minus-103)

Week 1 line: Arkansas minus-33 vs. UTEP

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Sept. 26 Arkansas minus-2 vs. Texas A&M in Dallas; Oct. 3 Arkansas plus-1 at Tennessee; Oct. 10 Arkansas plus-8.5 at Alabama; Oct. 24 Arkansas minus-1 vs. Auburn; Nov. 7 Arkansas plus-3 at Ole Miss; Nov. 14 Arkansas plus-6 at LSU

Overview: No matter how many positive indicators line themselves up in the Razorbacks’ favor, gamblers aren’t ready to chant, “Pig Sooie,” just yet. Arkansas was the SEC’s best bet last year, going 10-3 against the spread, despite having an extremely unlucky season. It went 0-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less and finished as the ninth best team in the nation by Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings, though barely eked out a winning 7-6 straight-up record. Almost everyone is back on offense including one of the nation’s best lines, one of the country’s least turnover prone quarterbacks in Brandon Allen and football’s only dual 1,00-yard rushers in Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. More than half of a defense that became the first unit in 73 years to shut out ranked teams in consecutive weeks, LSU and Ole Miss, is also back. But money came in against Arkansas in every single game opened at the Golden Nugget.

Missouri

Odds to win the SEC: 18-to-1

Win total: 7.5 (over minus-140, under plus-110)

Week 1 line: None yet (vs. Southeast Missouri State)

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Oct. 3 Missouri minus-8.5 vs. South Carolina; Oct. 10 Missouri minus-5 vs. Florida; Oct. 17 Missouri plus-8.5 at Georgia; Nov. 5 Missouri plus-4.5 vs. Mississippi State; Nov. 14 Missouri minus-6 vs. BYU; Nov. 21 Missouri minus-2.5 vs. Tennessee; Nov. 28 Missouri plus-7 at Arkansas

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Missouri Tigers linebacker Kentrell Brothers (10) lines up in the third quarter of a 49-24 win over the Toledo Rockets in an NCAA college football game in Toledo, Ohio, Saturday, Sept. 6, 2014.

Overview: For the third straight year, the betting market is discounting Missouri’s chances in the preseason. The Tigers have seen their odds to win the national championship double from 100- to 200-to-1. They’ve also endured three line moves of a field goal or more against them in the game of the year market — versus BYU, Florida and South Carolina. The pessimism didn’t bother Missouri in 2013 or 2014 when it became surprise back-to-back SEC East champions, going a combined 14-4 straight up, 13-5 against the spread in conference. The latter is the SEC’s best mark in the last two seasons. Missouri has its top two tacklers, linebackers Kentrell Brothers and Michael Scherer, back from a defense that allowed an SEC-best 4.7 yards per play. The key to reaching a third straight SEC Championship Game — something that hasn’t happened since Florida from 1994-1996 — will be more consistency from quarterback Maty Mauk and running back Russell Hansbrough. The returning leaders both had a mix of outstanding and abysmal games last season.

Texas A&M

Odds to win the SEC: 20-to-1

Win total: 8 (over plus-125, under minus-155)

Week 1 line: Texas A&M minus-3 vs. Arizona State in Houston

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Sept. 26 Texas A&M plus-2 vs. Arkansas in Dallas; Oct. 3 Texas A&M minus-6.5 vs. Mississippi State; Oct. 17 Texas A&M plus-5.5 vs. Alabama; Oct. 24 Texas A&M plus-5.5 at Ole Miss; Oct. 31 Texas A&M minus-10 vs. South Carolina; Nov. 7 Texas A&M plus-2 vs. Auburn; Nov. 28 Texas A&M plus-7.5 at LSU

Overview: The biggest recruit to arrive in College Station, Texas, this offseason wasn’t a player. It was John Chavis, the veteran LSU defensive coordinator who jumped ship to Texas A&M. He’s tasked with repairing a defense that gave up 5.9 yards per play, second-worst in the SEC, last season. The porous unit is the main reason why the Aggies have gone a paltry 4-12 against the spread against the SEC the last two seasons. But Myles Garret, a defensive end who had 12 sacks as a freshman, is one of an SEC West-leading 16 starters returning for Texas A&M. Experience hasn’t swayed gamblers, though. Action has poured in on the under 8 wins to create a high asking price. The Aggies slip into the top 25 of almost any oddsmakers’ power ratings, but still project as underdogs in five of their 12 games. Such is life in the SEC West.

Florida

Odds to win the SEC: 30-to-1

Win total: 7 (over minus-135, under plus-105)

Week 1 line: Florida minus-36 vs. New Mexico State

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Florida defensive back Vernon Hargreaves (1) celebrates after he intercepted a pass to secure their 28-20 over East Caroline late in the second half of the Birmingham Bowl NCAA college football game, Saturday, Jan. 3, 2015, in Birmingham, Ala.

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Sept. 26 Florida plus-3 vs. Tennessee; Oct. 3 Florida plus-6 vs. Ole Miss; Oct. 10 Florida plus-5 at Missouri; Oct. 17 Florida plus-14 at LSU; Oct. 31 Florida plus-10.5 vs. Georgia in Jacksonville; Nov. 14 Florida plus-2.5 at South Carolina; Nov. 28 Florida plus-4.5 vs. Florida State

Overview: By the betting odds, the Gators are hitting a historic low this preseason. They’re underdogs in seven games, which hasn’t happened in 30 years — as long as reliable point-spread data exists. That includes taking points in three home games, which hasn’t happened at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium since 1992 before any current players were born. It might take some time for new coach Jim McElwain, who’s reported to be leaning towards starting freshman quarterback Will Grier, to turn around the offense so Florida will again lean on defense. Seven of the Gators’ 10 returning starters — the second fewest in the SEC — are on that side of the ball including shutdown cornerback Vernon Hargreaves.

South Carolina

Odds to win the SEC: 30-to-1

Win total: 6.5 (over minus-105, under minus-125)

Week 1 line: South Carolina minus-3 at North Carolina

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Sept. 19 South Carolina plus-13.5 at Georgia; Oct. 3 South Carolina plus-8.5 at Missouri; Oct. 10 South Carolina plus-8 vs. LSU; Oct. 31 South Carolina plus-10 at Texas A&M; Nov. 14 South Carolina minus-2.5 vs. Florida; Nov. 28 South Carolina plus-3 vs. Clemson

Overview: The consensus seems to be that the 70-year-old Steve Spurrier is winding down and taking the South Carolina program with him, a belief that extends into Las Vegas. Bettors have forced the largest shift of any SEC team on South Carolina’s under 6.5 wins, despite Spurrier beating that mark in nine of 10 seasons in Columbia. The Gamecocks’ odds to win the national championship have also risen from 100-to-1 to 200-to-1, likely the highest since Spurrier’s first year. The pessimism stems from last year when the Gamecocks failed to substantiate considerable preseason buildup with a 7-6 straight-up, 5-8 against the spread record. Their defense was as horrendous as advertised, finishing 108th in the nation yielding 6.2 yards per play, but they also fell on the wrong side of variance on a few occasions. The Gamecocks were only outgained by five yards per game in the SEC, where they went 2-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

Mississippi State

Odds to win the SEC: 40-to-1

Win total: 7 (over minus-145, under plus-105)

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Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott runs for a first down against Kentucky at Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Ky., on Saturday, Oct. 25, 2014.

Week 1 line: Mississippi State minus-23 at Southern Miss

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Sept. 12 Mississippi State plus-3 vs. LSU; Sept. 26 Mississippi State plus-9.5 at Auburn; Oct. 3 Mississippi State plus-6.5 at Texas A&M; Nov. 5 Mississippi State plus-4.5 at Missouri; Nov. 14 Mississippi State plus-7.5 vs. Alabama; Nov. 21 Mississippi State plus-11 at Arkansas; Nov. 28 Mississippi State plus-1 vs. Ole Miss

Overview: Senior Dak Prescott stands alone in the SEC as a highly accomplished quarterback returning for another season in 2015. Prescott, who accounted for nearly 4,500 last year as Mississippi State ranked No. 1 in the country for five weeks, is the fifth choice to win the Heisman offshore at 14-to-1. It might take a Heisman-style season for Prescott to keep the Bulldogs in the SEC West race as they return a conference-low eight starters. Mississippi State currently projects as underdogs in every SEC game aside from a home date with Kentucky. The Bulldogs will need to continue last year’s trend where they went 3-0 against the spread, 2-1 straight-up when taking points. It should take only one upset, given a weak non-conference slate, for the program to extend its record by advancing to a sixth straight bowl game.

Kentucky

Odds to win the SEC: 100-to-1

Win total: 5.5 (over minus-155, under plus-125)

Week 1 line: Kentucky minus-14.5 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Oct. 15 Kentucky plus-9 vs. Auburn; Nov. 28 Kentucky plus-2.5 vs. Louisville

Overview: Coach Mark Stoops may not have gotten Kentucky to a bowl game for the first time in four years like fans wanted in his second season, but he did snap a longer skid. The Wildcats had their first winning season against the spread since 2006 last year, finishing 7-5 against the spread but only 5-7 straight-up. Kentucky dropped its last six games — though it was more than a touchdown underdog in all of them — to narrowly miss the postseason, but its days as a doormat still look potentially numbered. They return 14 starters including strong-armed quarterback Patrick Towles, leading running back Stanley Williams and leading receiver Ryan Timmons as well as one of the SEC’s better offensive lines. Stoops has cashed in excess during non-conference play, going 7-1 against the spread since arriving at Kentucky.

Vanderbilt

Odds to win the SEC: 500-to-1

Win total: 3.5 (over plus-125, under minus-155)

Week 1 line: Vanderbilt minus-2.5 vs. Western Kentucky

Golden Nugget games of the year lines Nov. 28 Vanderbilt plus-21 at Tennessee

Overview: Only two teams in the SEC have posted winning conference against the spread records in each of the last four years — Alabama, and don’t faint, Vanderbilt. The Commodores went 5-3 versus the number for the fourth consecutive season in coach Derek Mason’s first year. It might have been the only way the 2014 season reached respectability. The Commodores endured a drastic dropoff in not winning a single conference game after going 9-7 the two previous years under current Penn State coach James Franklin. Conference opponents outscored them by 23 points per game. But they were victim to a minus-16 turnover margin, which will surely improve, and return virtually their entire team. Before last year, Vanderbilt had pulled at least one outright SEC upset every season since 2010. Pulling off that feat again in 2015 to make it five of the past six years would make for a decent place to start a turnaround.

Six pack of picks: Florida under 7 wins at plus-105, South Carolina over 6.5 wins at minus-105, Auburn under 8.5 wins at plus-137, Ole Miss over 8.5 wins at minus-115, Arkansas minus-2 vs. Texas A&M, Florida plus-3 vs. Tennessee

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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