Five things to know before betting the NFL preseason

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Aug. 8, 2015 | 2 a.m.

The last 26 weekends have passed without a single football game. Every single one of the next 26 weekends will feature some form of football.

Las Vegas sports books break out of their de facto offseason with the annual Hall of Fame Game at 5 p.m. Sunday in Canton, Ohio, kicking off the NFL preseason. The Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers usher in sports betting’s heaviest season this year.

“It feels a little early to be getting back into it, but after Sunday, it will feel like putting on an old glove,” said Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM Resorts International. “So, ready or not, it’s here and it’s what we wait for all year.”

By next Saturday, all 32 NFL teams will have taken the field in contests open for betting throughout the valley. To prepare for football’s return, the Sun caught up with the head of one of the largest chains of sports books in Nevada.

Rood is based out of the Mirage, but oversees betting at all 10 of MGM’s sports books.

Read below for five important things Rood shared going into the preseason.

Preseason does draw action

No one bets the preseason anyway.

That’s a statement that gets tossed around quite often and, as recently as about five years, was mostly accurate. It’s not anymore.

The volume wagered on the Hall of Fame game will surpass the action on the majority of baseball games on MGM’s betting boards over the last week. A typical NFL preseason game in the middle of the week will only draw about half the money of an average baseball game, according to Rood, but that’s still meaningful considering the latter is the only one that actually counts.

“It gets people excited but the general public still haven’t quite embraced betting on the preseason,” Rood explained. “But the sharps, over the last several years, have totally embraced it because it’s something where information can be really critical and pan out for the good.”

How to bet the preseason

Coaches and their exhibition philosophy are often cited as the most important factor in handicapping the preseason.

Seattle coach Pete Carroll, for instance, traditionally takes the games seriously, with the NFL’s best lifetime against-the-spread record in the preseason, while Tennessee coach Ken Whisenhunt appears not to care whether his team wins or loses. The coaches are only part of the equation, though.

The most beneficial knowledge a bettor can learn is a team’s overall motivation, installed by the coach, going into a preseason contest. It’s information worth acting on if a bettor discovers Carroll wants to get extended playing time for those fighting for roster spots while his opponent promises to play their young starters into the third quarter.

“The approach a team is going to have and what coaches are trying to evaluate is the key to both betting strategy and trying to book it,” Rood said. “There are way more factors than what you normally have to figure out on a week-in, week-out basis.”

Just focus on picking the winner in the preseason

The point spread comes into play roughly one in every five games during the NFL regular season.

The ratio is significantly lower in the preseason because the spreads are much shorter. Out of the first 15 exhibition games opened for betting, only two of them currently have a betting line of more than minus-3.

So, if all else fails, do something that would never be advisable during the regular season and ignore the point spreads. Research the games, pick a winner and bet on that side.

“You’re going to see almost every game around 3 and usually it’s because of home field advantage,” Rood said.

Popular Super Bowl bets

The four most bet-on teams to win the Super Bowl at MGM properties all come from the NFC.

Three of them aren’t the least bit surprising — the Seattle Seahawks, the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay and Seattle, which played in the NFC Championship Game last year, didn’t become Super Bowl co-favorites at 5-to-1 for nothing. And Dallas’ massive national fan base puts them near the top of the ticket count every offseason.

But the fourth team is Minnesota, which has only made the playoffs once in the last five years and finished with a losing record last season. Bettors are convinced that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and running back Adrian Peterson can build a formidable offense around an already solid defense.

Minnesota has dropped from 60-to-1 to 25-to-1 to win the Super Bowl at MGM properties.

Vikings are the play in the Hall of Fame Game, too

The house may start the season if the red if the Vikings defeat the Steelers.

Rood opened Minnesota as a 2.5-point favorite, with other sports books at as low as pick’em, but has moved it all the way to minus-4 because of early action. All the big money — limits at MGM are $5,000 on sides during the preseason — is on the Vikings.

“I think you’re probably going to see Adrian Peterson play a little bit because he missed so much of last year,” Rood said. “I think they want to see what they have with Bridgewater and Peterson because I don’t think they were ever on the field together last year. They should play more than Big Ben and the Steelers offense. I think that’s the angle the sharps are looking at.”

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.