Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 14 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 10, 2015 | 2 a.m.

The Packers winning a prime-time game on a last-second Hail Mary would have been a ruinous result for sports books on almost any occasion over the last several years — just not last week.

The 61-yard heave that tight end Richard Rodgers corralled from quarterback Aaron Rodgers on an untimed down to give Green Bay a 27-23 victory over Detroit on Thursday Night Football was actually helpful for most shops.

A few bookmakers surely cursed having to pay out bets on the over 46 points, but they largely won on the bigger decision. Bettors wagered more money on the Lions, sending the line from minus-3 to minus-2.5 during the week.

Green Bay was scuffling with five noncovers in its last six games coming into the trip to Detroit, which had surged in beating the number in three straight. The trends appeared to continue when the Lions built a 17-0 first-quarter lead, but one endgame heave changed everything.

Combined with Minnesota’s 38-7 loss to Seattle, Green Bay greatly enhanced its chances of getting a home playoff game with its odds to win the NFC North going from minus-110 (risking $1.10 to win $1) to minus-270. Detroit was taken off the board in the division futures and its Super Bowl odds went from 300-to-1 to 2000-to-1 at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Talking Points luckily wound up on the right side of one of the definitive plays of the 2015 season so far, helping the blog to a 10-6 against the spread record last week. The overall tally is now 100-85-7 picking every game against the spread for the season.

Check below for the Week 14 picks, with games listed in three separate confidence categories with corresponding records. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side.

Plays (27-20-2)

Baltimore Ravens plus-9 vs. Seattle Seahawks Must fade the season-high hype on Seattle. The Seahawks should win but this line was only minus-4.5 last week, and the Ravens haven’t lost a game by nine points all season.

Cleveland Browns minus-1 vs. San Francisco 49ers Don’t be fooled by the 49ers’ 4-8 straight-up, 6-6 against the spread record being two wins better than the Browns’ marks. Both teams share the same 2.9 expected wins by Pro Football Reference’s expected wins metric, meaning the home team deserves to lay at least a touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs minus-10 vs. San Diego Chargers Always hazardous laying double digits, but this feels like a case where oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough. The Chiefs gave three points at San Diego three weeks ago and won 33-3 while limiting the Chargers to 3.6 yards per play. The standard shift for home-field advantage would make Kansas City a 9-point favorite here, and just one extra point doesn’t catch up to the teams’ conflicting trajectories.

Leans (33-26)

Pittsburgh Steelers plus-3 at Cincinnati Bengals Similar to last week, it feels wise to take the diminished asking price on the surging Steelers with the line likely to move in their direction. Cincinnati has only swept the regular-season series once since 2000.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus-3.5 vs. New Orleans Saints Saints continue to get credit they don’t deserve for their offensive pedigree, which does nothing to repair a defense that’s on pace to finish as the worst ever tracked by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. Tampa Bay won in New Orleans 26-19 in week 2 with an offense not nearly as refined as what it fields now.

Jacksonville Jaguars pick’em vs. Indianapolis Colts Indianapolis has gained an anemic 4.5 yards per play since losing Andrew Luck to a lacerated kidney. Jacksonville has been unlucky with each of its last three losses coming by five points or less.

Minnesota Vikings plus-9 at Arizona Cardinals Vikings had covered seven in a row as an underdog before last week’s blowout loss to the Seahawks. The market has undervalued them for most of the season — Vikings are second in the NFL at 9-3 against the spread — and that trend may be continuing here as they were only 6-point underdogs on last week’s early line.

Carolina Panthers minus-7.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons Not giving in to the talk that the Panthers are vulnerable after getting themselves into a shootout in last week’s 33-21 victory over the Saints as 7-point favorites. Carolina outplayed New Orleans more than the score indicated, putting up a 163-yard edge despite a minus-2 turnover margin.

New York Giants minus-1 vs. Miami Dolphins Miami’s longtime lack of a home field advantage has reared itself again in 2015 as the Dolphins are 1-4 against the spread at Sun Life Stadium. Unlike the Dolphins, the Giants still have something to play for as they’re tied for the NFC East lead.

Guesses (40-39-2)

New York Jets minus-7 vs. Tennessee Titans A few sports books opened the number at 7.5, and the Titans received early action off of their 42-point outburst against the Jaguars last week. Scoring won’t be as easy against a Jets defense giving up only 5.1 yards per play, tied for third in the NFL.

Houston Texans plus-3.5 vs. New England Patriots New England might go into NRG Stadium even more beaten-up than it was in last week’s 35-28 loss to Philadelphia. Can’t advise laying points on the road with the Patriots until they get healthier.

Washington Redskins plus-3.5 at Chicago Bears These teams have played with a remarkably similar efficiency, as the Redskins have outscored the Bears by six points on the season while giving up four fewer points. The half-point hook, which is gradually disappearing from betting board around town, makes Washington the play.

Philadelphia Eagles plus-1 vs. Buffalo Bills If there’s ever a chance for Chip Kelly and Bishop Gorman grad DeMarco Murray to make amends, it feels like it’s here. The Bills rank 30th in DVOA in rush defense, making them far and away the weakest run-stopping team the Eagles have seen.

Detroit Lions plus-1 at St. Louis Rams Can’t back a team that has neither covered nor won in five consecutive weeks and has their coach saying he is “almost all out of answers”. Detroit has only given up 2.7 yards per rush attempt over the last month, and the ground is St. Louis’ only prayer at moving the ball.

Green Bay Packers minus-7 vs. Dallas Cowboys Green Bay still feels like a bet-against team after last week’s miracle, but must wait for a better opportunity. There’s a clear advantage in the Packers having 10 days to prepare with the Cowboys coming off of a Monday Night Football appearance.

Oakland Raiders plus-7.5 at Denver Broncos Denver played quietly poor last week in gaining only 4.5 yards per play against a pitiful San Diego defense but using three turnovers to win 17-3 as 6-point favorites. Oakland conversely was effective in outgaining Kansas City by 129 yards but dooming itself with three second-half interceptions.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.