Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Bowl Pick’em Against the Spread: Part 3

UNLV vs. Air Force

John Locher / AP

Air Force running back Jacobi Owens (28) carries the ball during the first half of an NCAA college football game against UNLV, Saturday, Nov. 8, 2014, in Las Vegas. Air Force won 48-21. (AP Photo/John Locher)

The betting public has gotten off to a strong start in bowl season.

Favorites and overs, ever-popular sides to wager, have cashed at a profitable rate. Teams laying points are 12-8 against the spread through 10 days of postseason play, while sports books’ totals have gotten eclipsed in 13 of 20 contests.

Out of six outright upsets, Akron’s 23-21 victory over Utah State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl comes in as the biggest. It’s been a tame start to the final college football games of the year, but as the past has consistently shown, that can change at any instant.

It feels like it’s going to change at any instant entering the meat of the bowl schedule. Talking Points will look to feast, hoping to beef up a bowl record of 11-8-1 against the spread picking every game so far.

Check below for betting analysis and picks on the eight games over the next two days.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: California minus-7 vs. Air Force; over/under: 69.5

11 a.m. Tuesday, Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas on ESPN

Cal coach Sonny Dykes has expressed concern in dealing with the unfamiliar Air Force triple-option led by Centennial High graduate Jacobi Owens, and there’s little reason to believe he isn’t being genuine. The Golden Bears gave up 4.8 yards per rush attempt this season to rank 93rd in the nation.

Pick: Air Force plus-7

Russell Athletic Bowl: North Carolina minus-3.5 vs. Baylor; over/under: 70

Click to enlarge photo

North Carolina running back Elijah Hood (34) plays in an NCAA college football game against Pittsburgh, Thursday, Oct. 29, 2015, in Pittsburgh.

2:30 p.m. Tuesday, Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando on ESPN

Line has swung an entire touchdown after Baylor opened as a 3.5-point favorite with some 80 percent of the action flooding in on North Carolina. The Bears are ravaged by injuries on offense — though third-string quarterback Chris Johnson will play so they won’t have to resort to receiver Lynx Hawthorne again — but quietly have a decided edge on defense. Baylor gave up .4 yards per play less than North Carolina against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents despite playing a signficiantly tougher schedule.

Pick: Baylor plus-3.5

Nova Home Loans Bowl: UNR plus-3 vs. Colorado State; over/under: 56

4:30 p.m. Tuesday, Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Ariz. on Campus Insiders

Colorado State appears to have edges both statistically and situationally. Although the two teams’ defenses have produced at a similar clip, the Rams rank No. 64 in offense to the Wolf Pack’s No. 96 in Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings. The Wolf Pack have also spent the lead-in to the game complaining about not having to play an in-conference game instead of getting selected to go to the Cure Bowl in Orlando. The Rams have seemed more content about reaching the postseason in coach Mike Bobo’s first year.

Pick: Colorado State minus-3

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl: LSU minus-7 vs. Texas Tech; over/under: 73.5

6 p.m. Tuesday, NRG Stadium in Houston on ESPN

LSU’s offensive shortcomings will sort themselves out quickly against Texas Tech, which has the worst defense of any bowl eligible team. Texas Tech’s offense saw only a pair of defenses on par with LSU’s this season, and was relatively held in check with only 53 combined points against Oklahoma and West Virginia.

Pick: LSU minus-7

Birmingham Bowl: Auburn minus-3 vs. Memphis; over/under: 62.5

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Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson (6) passes against Louisville during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2015, in Atlanta.

9 a.m. Wednesday, Legion Field in Birmingham, Ala. on ESPN

Auburn is a favorite in program stature only, as any metric rates Memphis as the far more efficient team. Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings, for example, places Memphis No. 27 with Auburn trailing all the way back at No. 49. The in-state bowl will gave Auburn an edge in the stands, but it went only 1-6 against the spread at home this season and 1-5 against the spread as a favorite. Memphis is undesirably playing with an interim coach, but it’s offensive coordinator Darrell Dickey, who’s already been retained for next year by new coach Mike Norvell.

Pick: Memphis plus-3

Belk Bowl: North Carolina State plus-6 vs. Mississippi State; over/under: 60

12:30 p.m. Wednesday, Bank Of America Stadium in Charlotte on ESPN

With quarterback Jacoby Brissett and running back Matthew Dayes, the Wolfpack have a rushing attack that ranks as the fifth-best in the nation per S&P. That’s more than a little problematic for the Bulldogs, which never recovered from all the run-stuffers they lost to graduation last year in giving up 4.5 yards per carry this season.

Pick: North Carolina State plus-6

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Texas A&M plus-5 vs. Louisville; over/under: 47.5

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Texas A&M running back Tra Carson, left, eludes Arizona State defensive back Jordan Simone (38) on his way to a touchdown Saturday in Houston.

4 p.m. Wednesday, Nissan Stadium in Nashville on ESPN

Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray both struggled mightily at times this season, yet they’re collectively worth 8 points on the betting line as this spread has moved from as much as Texas A&M minus-3 since they both transferred. If Aggies coach Kevin Sumlin is as brilliant offensively as his reputation suggests, he will have used the extended time off to install wrinkles to help new starter Jake Hubenak. Sumlin is 4-1 against the spread in bowl games for his career to Louisville coach Bobby Petrino’s 2-6.

Pick: Texas A&M plus-5

National Funding Holiday Bowl: USC minus-3.5 vs. Wisconsin; over/under: 50.5

7:30 p.m. Wednesday, Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego on ESPN

Talking Points’ season-long fading of the Badgers paid dividends as they finished 5-7 against the spread despite playing a cream-cheese soft schedule. Wisconsin went 0-3 straight-up and against the spread versus opponents with winning records. They’re a bet-against as usual traveling to the west coast to take on an offense that was an entire yard per play better on the season.

Pick: USC minus-3.5

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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