Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Bowl Pick’em Against the Spread: Part 4

Mayfield Heisman

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) greets fans after their NCAA college football game against Baylor, Saturday, Nov. 14, 2015, in Waco, Texas. Oklahoma won 44-34.

One is well traveled; the other is a homebody.

The lives of the twin point spreads on the college football playoff games couldn’t have gone much differently since they were born earlier this month. The number on the first semifinal was transient from the start, as Oklahoma opened as a 2.5-point favorite over Clemson before immediately getting bet to 3.

The Sooners have since gone up to 3.5 or 4 depending on the sports book, pinning around between the key numbers based on the level of action. Alabama vs. Michigan State in today’s second game has experienced much less movement.

The Crimson Tide opened as a 9.5-point favorite, and have either stayed there or made the small shift to 10 all across town. The complexion of the lines could change before kickoff, but to this point, they’ve had a contrasting nature.

Talking Points will try to decipher the numbers in the final full bowl pick’em of the year. The blog has gone 13-14-1 picking every postseason game against the spread so far, and looks to boost the record with the last 12 bowls.

Check below for brief analysis and picks on the national semifinal games and more.

Chick Fil-A Peach Bowl: Houston plus-7 vs. Florida State; over/under: 55.5

Click to enlarge photo

Houston's Greg Ward Jr. (1) loses the ball during the first half of an NCAA college football game at TDECU Stadium, Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015, in Houston.

9 a.m. Thursday, Georgia Dome in Atlanta on ESPN

Seminoles have covered in five consecutive games behind a defense that’s allowed only 4.5 yards per play during the streak. Encountering that caliber of defense — which includes stars in cornerback Jalen Ramsey, defensive end DeMarcus Walker and linebacker Reggie Northrup — will serve as a shock to the Cougars. Houston is overvalued by virtue of going 3-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown.

Pick: Florida State minus-7

Capital One Orange Bowl: Oklahoma minus-4 vs. Clemson; over/under: 64.5

1 p.m. Thursday, Sun Life Stadium in Miami on ESPN

There’s little doubt over which team in the first national semifinal was better over the second half of the season. And it’s not the undefeated one. After getting upset by Texas, Oklahoma proceeded to win seven in a row by an average of 32.5 points per game including covering in six. Clemson faded slightly over its final seven games, going 3-4 against the spread and winning only by an average of 18 points despite facing a weaker schedule. But, looking at the year as a whole, there’s not much reason to be wary of Clemson, which still edges Oklahoma by one spot in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings.

The Tigers are the last standing unbeaten team despite luck often going against them. They have a negative-2 turnover margin as opposed to the Sooners’ plus-10. Oklahoma has taken a businesslike approach to the game, vowing revenge for last year’s 40-16 pasting against Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl and stewing over past slights like quarterback Baker Mayfield’s lack of recruiting interest. Clemson has stayed more relaxed, what with throwing pizza parties, dabbing in locker rooms and crashing press conferences. The looser team that’s played better over a larger sample getting points is too much to pass up.

Pick: Clemson plus-4

Goodyear Cotton Bowl: Michigan State plus-9.5 vs. Alabama, over/under: 47

Click to enlarge photo

Alabama's Derrick Henry stands for photos after winning the Heisman Trophy on Saturday, Dec. 12, 2015, in New York.

5 p.m. Thursday, AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on ESPN

The Crimson Tide posted their first winning record against the spread in four seasons, 7-6, in part because bettors were more hesitant than usual in laying points with them. The bulk of action surprisingly came in against them in arguably their two biggest games after losing to Ole Miss, as a 1.5-point underdog at Georgia and 7.5-point favorite hosting LSU. Both were easy wins and covers for Alabama. The Spartans were the exact opposite. Michigan State went 5-7 against the spread for its first unprofitable season in three years largely due to an inability to cover inflated numbers with action bumping up their spreads on a weekly basis.

Bettors might be repeating both mistakes. Michigan State has drawn a 2-to-1 edge in tickets ahead of game day despite having no discernible matchup advantage. The Spartans are the only team in the college football playoff that oddsmakers could argue doesn’t belong based purely on a power rating perspective. Florida State was that team last year, and succumbed to a 59-20 onslaught against top-rated Oregon in the semifinals. Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, fresh off of winning the Heisman, exploded for 400 yards and it’s easy to see this year’s counterpart, Alabama running back Derrick Henry, doing the same. Despite Michigan State’s reputation for a strong defensive front, it’s giving up a relatively pedestrian 3.6 yards per carry.

Pick: Alabama minus-9.5

Outback Bowl: Northwestern plus-8.5 vs. Tennessee; over/under: 47.5

9 a.m. Friday, Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on ESPN2

The Volunteers may have not gotten enough credit for how close they came to a championship-style season considering their four losses came by a total of 17 points. The defeats included taking Oklahoma to overtime and holding a lead over Alabama with three minutes to go in the game. Northwestern may have only lost twice, but the 68-point combined margin to Michigan and Iowa is troubling.

Pick: Tennessee minus-8.5

Orlando Citrus Bowl: Michigan minus-4 vs. Florida; over/under: 39

10 a.m. Friday, Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando on ABC

No offense in the nation was more anemic than Florida’s at the end of the season as the Gators gained less than 4 yards per play over the final month. Michigan’s once impenetrable defense also backslid, giving up nearly 5.5 yards per play in the same span, but not quite to that large of an extent.

Pick: Michigan minus-4

Battlefrog Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame plus-6.5 vs. Ohio State; over/under: 57

Click to enlarge photo

Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott (15) high-steps into the end zone to score a touchdown.

10 a.m. Friday, University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. on ESPN

Declaring Ohio State back and better than ever following its 42-13 pounding of Michigan as a 1.5-point favorite feels incredibly shortsighted. It was only a game before, a 17-14 loss to Michigan State as 14.5-point favorites, when everyone had deemed the Buckeyes too broken for repair. Notre Dame has played more consistently well all season, without a single truly poor performance during a 10-2 straight-up, 8-4 against the spread campaign.

Pick: Notre Dame plus-6.5

Rose Bowl: Stanford minus-6.5 vs. Iowa; over/under: 53

2 p.m. Friday, Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. on ESPN

Both teams run the ball on more than 59 percent of their offensive plays. Stanford is more efficient with Christian McCaffrey and Barry Sanders Jr. leading a charge that averages 5.1 yards per carry to Iowa notching only 4.7 behind the trio of Jordan Canzeri, LeShun Daniels and Akrum Wadley. But that edge is countered by Iowa being better defensively against the run, surrendering 3.6 yards per carry to Stanford’s 4.6.

Pick: Iowa plus-6.5

AllState Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma State plus-7 vs. Ole Miss; over/under: 68

Click to enlarge photo

Baylor linebacker Aiavion Edwards, right, moves in to sack Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph (2) in the second quarter.

5:30 p.m. Friday, Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans on ESPN

The Cowboys’ defense has imploded, giving up nearly 7 yards per play during a three-game against the spread losing streak to end the season. The Rebels’ passing attack is severely underrated, rating second in the country by Football Outsiders and boasting perhaps the nation’s best receiver in Laquon Treadwell.

Pick: Ole Miss minus-7

TaxSlayer Bowl: Penn State plus-6.5 at Georgia; over/under: 42.5

9 a.m. Saturday, EverBank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. on ESPN

Georgia’s coaching staff is completely ravaged with both coordinators having left after the firing of Mark Richt. The Bulldogs labored to score all season anyway and won’t find a breakthrough against a Penn State defense, led by senior defensive end Carl Nassib, that’s held opponents to 4.5 yards per play to rank 10th in the nation.

Pick: Penn State plus-6.5

AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Kansas State plus-11 vs. Arkansas; over/under: 55.5

12:20 p.m. Saturday, Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis on ESPN

Kansas State coach Bill Snyder’s considerable betting successes, which include a lifetime record of 161-111 against the spread, haven’t extended to bowl games. The 76-year-old is 5-11 versus the number in the postseason, and this year’s Wildcats are one of his weaker teams as they needed to upset West Virginia in their final game to become bowl eligible.

Pick: Arkansas minus-11

Valero Alamo Bowl: TCU plus-1 vs. Oregon; over/under: 78.5

Click to enlarge photo

TCU running back Aaron Green (22) finds open field to run against Texas Tech defensive back Justis Nelson (31).

3:45 p.m. Saturday, Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas on ESPN

Oregon’s offense deserves all the praise it’s received for improving as the season went on, but TCU’s defensive performance spiked upwards just as sharply. The Horned Frogs’ secondary starring safeties Travin Howard and Derrick Kindred surrendered 4.6 yards per pass attempt in their last three games, ranking fourth in the nation despite facing Oklahoma and Baylor within the stretch.

Pick: TCU plus-1

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: West Virginia pick’em vs. Arizona State; over/under: 64

7:15 p.m. Saturday, Chase Field in Phoenix on ESPN

The Mountaineers were better than their 7-5 straight-up record indicated in all but one area: Giving up big plays. That’s not much of a concern with a middling Arizona State attack averaging 5.5 yards per play. There should be an adjustment for Arizona State practically playing at home, but not one this large. West Virginia should be the favorite.

Pick: West Virginia pick’em

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy