Bowl Pick ’em Against the Spread, Part 4

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Jan. 1, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Casinos will celebrate New Year’s Day in vintage style.

Sports books will be the most packed part of local resorts after college football kindly returned the athletic prestige to the national holiday. While always a staple in bowl season, the BCS era had watered January 1 down with the national championship always scheduled a few days later.

Sports book directors always advocated the most significant games going back to New Year’s Day. That’s unequivocally the case for the first time since the mid-1990s this year with the national semifinals scheduled for Thursday afternoon.

Oregon vs. Florida State and Alabama vs. Ohio State are the headliners on a day with three other intriguing matchups on the undercard. Given the expected 340,000 visitors in town, it’s going to create a massive handle for the sports books.

Talking Points hopes nothing else changes. The blog has continued its success picking every bowl game and currently sits with a 17-10 against the spread record.

Check below for picks and preview of the last handful of bowl games before the January 12 national championship game.

Outback Bowl: Auburn minus-6.5 vs. Wisconsin, over/under: 63.5

9 a.m. Thursday, Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., on ESPN2

Wisconsin figures to come in with a motivational edge following a dismal 59-0 blowout to Ohio State as 4-point favorites in the Big Ten Championship Game. Auburn based its entire season around getting into the college football playoff — using the preseason slogan “13 seconds better” after last year’s narrow national championship loss — and predictably tailed off when that became unrealistic. The Tigers went 1-5 against the spread, 3-2 straight-up after their first loss.

Pick: Wisconsin plus-6.5

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Michigan State plus-3 vs. Baylor, over/under: 70

9:30 a.m. Thursday, AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on ESPN

With Baylor the first team out of the playoff and Michigan State all the way back at No. 8, conventional wisdom would label the Bears as the better team. Statistics don’t necessarily agree. The Spartans had the better offense than the Bears, 6.4 yards per play to 6.2, and the better defense, 4.6 yards per play to 6.1. They posted the better numbers despite facing a much tougher schedule. Don’t forget both of Michigan State’s losses came against playoff teams in Oregon and Ohio State.

Pick: Michigan State plus-3

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl: Missouri minus-4.5 vs. Minnesota, over/under: 48

10 a.m. Thursday, Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando on ABC

The majority of Minnesota’s success this season came from running the ball with David Cobb, who finished fifth in the nation with 1,545 yards. But the Tigers boast the best rush defense the Golden Gophers have faced at No. 11 in Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings. Defensive ends Shane Ray and Markus Golden have combined for 23 sacks, meaning Minnesota won’t find it easy turning to the pass either.

Pick: Missouri minus-4.5

Rose Bowl: Florida State plus-8 vs. Oregon, over/under: 72

2 p.m. Thursday, Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif., on ESPN

Florida State enters as an underdog for the first time in 49 games, and takes more points than it has in five years. That’s been a strong reference point with the bulk of the tickets flooding in on the defending national champions. But it’s also a red herring. Oregon is laying this many points because it deserves to lay this many points. The Ducks have covered eight straight — the Seminoles went 2-6 against the spread in the same span — and established themselves as superior in every statistical measure. Just to arbitrarily pick one, Oregon has a plus-310 point differential to Florida State’s plus-152.

Pick: Oregon minus-8

AllState Sugar Bowl: Alabama minus-8.5 vs. Ohio State, over/under: 58

5:30 p.m. Thursday, Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, on ESPN

What were the odds that each of the first two national semifinal games ever would feature a public underdog? At this moment, that’s the situation. Ohio State is drawing as many tickets as Florida State. Talent-wise, it makes sense. Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings actually have these as the two best teams in the nation with Ohio State narrowly trailing Alabama. Ohio State has the nation’s best offense, according to the metric. Ohio State has the nation’s best offense. The problem is, Alabama will play all the pieces that built it into the lofty ranking. Ohio State will not with quarterback J.T. Barrett sidelined by a broken ankle. This line would have reached easily into double digits without Barrett had third-stringer Cardale Jones not excelled in the Big Ten Championship Game. The value, therefore, rests with the Crimson Tide.

Pick: Alabama minus-8.5

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Houston plus-3 vs. Pittsburgh, over/under: 53

9 a.m. Friday, Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas, on ESPN

By all accounts, Pittsburgh players are dealing with coach Paul Chryst’s decision to leave for Wisconsin better than Houston players are accepting coach Tony Devine’s firing. More importantly, Pittsburgh running back James Conner is the nation’s seventh leading rusher and primed to explode against Houston defense rated 111th against the run by F/+.

Pick: Pittsburgh minus-3

Taxslayer Bowl: Iowa plus-3 vs. Tennessee, over/under: 51.5

12:20 p.m. Friday, EverBank Field in Jacksonville, Fla., on ESPN

Tennessee rides a high into the game formerly known as the Gator Bowl, having won three of four to close the season and reach bowl eligibility for the first time since 2010. The mood is less upbeat at Iowa, which committed repeated defensive lapses to drop three of its last four for yet another underwhelming season.

Pick: Tennessee minus-3

Valero Alamo Bowl: Kansas State plus-1.5 vs. UCLA, over/under: 59

3:45 p.m. Friday, Alamodome in San Antonio, on ESPN

This is the most evenly matched bowl game of the year, according to oddsmakers. The betting market can’t figure out which team should be favored. Kansas State opened as a 2-point favorite, but the line has flipped to UCLA in most spots. In others, it’s either a pick’em or Kansas State minus-1. The Bruins had won five straight and covered three in a row, before losing 31-10 to Stanford as 6-point favorites to end the regular season. The Wildcats had a similar streak at six covers and five wins, before going 2-2 in their final four in both categories.

Pick: Kansas State plus-1.5

TicketCity Cactus Bowl: Washington minus-6.5 vs. Oklahoma State, over/under: 56

7:15 p.m. Friday, Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Ariz., on ESPN

Bettors are backing the Huskies as much as any team in the postseason. Reports indicate around nine out of every 10 tickets coming in against the Cowboys. It makes sense with an offensive ineptitude that has Oklahoma State ranked 95th in the nation at five yards per play. But the Cowboys appeared to find an answer at quarterback 12 games into the season with freshman Mason Rudolph leading them to a 38-35 victory over archrival Oklahoma as 21-point underdogs.

Pick: Oklahoma State plus-6.5

Birmingham Bowl: East Carolina plus-7 vs. Florida, over/under: 56.5

9 a.m. Saturday, Legion Field in Birmingham, Ala., on ESPN

The Pirates received early-season acclaim for knocking off Virginia Tech and North Carolina in back-to-back weeks, and also covering against South Carolina. East Carolina went 1-6 against the spread following the hot start, leaving many to believe it peaked early. But another theory could be that the likes of quarterback Shane Carden and receiver Justin Hardy had an extra edge playing against major-conference schools. Either way, the Pirates should arrive in The Magic City more excited than the Gators. Florida stuck behind embattled and now fired coach Will Muschamp all season, throwing everything it could at Florida State in its regular-season finale to send him out a winner. The Gators may not find the same spark under interim coach D.J. Durkin while the Pirates must bid adieu to arguably the best senior class in school history.

Pick: East Carolina plus-7

GoDaddy Bowl: Toledo minus-4 vs. Arkansas State, over/under: 67

6 p.m. Sunday, Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Ala., on ESPN

One golden rule of bowl season is to bet against the MAC team when in doubt. The conference is surprisingly 3-1 against the spread this year but that brings its total to just 14-27 over the last eight years. The Sun Belt is actually profitable at 24-19. With no indication that one team is significantly better than the other, the points become the play.

Pick: Arkansas State plus-4

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.