Las Vegas Sun

Currently: 70° | Complete forecast |

Analysis:

Analysis: UFC takes big hit with Jose Aldo’s exit from Conor McGregor fight

McGregor vs. Mendes makes for great replacement fight, but interest tapers

UFC 156 News Conference

Sam Morris

Jose Aldo carries his lightweight championship belt during the news conference for UFC 156 Thursday, Jan. 31, 2013.

Conor McGregor Open Workout

UFC featherweight contender Conor McGregor prepares for another work out at the Ultimate Fighter Gym on Thursday, May 21, 2015. Launch slideshow »

The UFC will release enough numbers with a procession of zeroes at the end next week to fry a calculator.

The locally based mixed martial arts promotion will trumpet, among other figures, the thousands of people it attracts to town for International Fight Week and the millions of dollars the crowd creates in economic impact. But an amount just as substantial and far more compelling will go unrevealed.

No one outside of the UFC offices will know how much money was lost with Tuesday’s news that a rib injury forced Jose Aldo of the weekend’s headlining event, a UFC 189 title defense against Conor McGregor. The company spent a record sum marketing a fight that UFC President Dana White thought had a shot at becoming its highest-selling pay-per-view of all-time.

The replacement bout between McGregor and Chad Mendes for the interim featherweight title on next Saturday’s card at the MGM Grand Garden Arena is an equally terrific matchup, but it’s not nearly capable of driving the same interest.

“Of course it’s something I think about,” McGregor said on a conference call to promote the new fight Wednesday afternoon. “This is prizefighting: It’s about the money. But I feel this is the McGregor show. People are showing up to see me. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Jose or Chad. It would have been nice if Jose didn’t (expletive) out but we’ll take the substitute. We’ll take the B-level guy and still break records.”

With Mendes on the other line, the insult predictably incited a maelstrom of words between the two fighters that rivaled any exchange McGregor and Aldo ever shared.

“People will tune into this fight because they are going to want to see me destroy Conor,” Mendes said before McGregor interrupted. “They want to see me crush your face.”

McGregor responded, “But they aren’t tuning in for you, Chad. Let’s call a spade a spade ... I’m going to (expletive) butcher you. You should have stayed home. You shouldn’t have answered that phone.”

God bless them for trying. It’s an admirable aim attempting to salvage some of the considerable anticipation UFC 189 had mounted, but also futile in all likelihood.

There’s no re-creating close to a year’s worth of Aldo and McGregor circling each other with a sense of imminent conflict like the kings of two separate lion prides in the same stretch of jungle.

White said the fight would need to sell 1 million pay-per-views, a milestone the promotion has reportedly reached less than 10 times, to break even. If the new matchup can generate half of that, the UFC should feel compelled to shut down the Strip and throw a parade for McGregor and Mendes in a re-creation of the original fight’s exorbitant-to-produce commercial.

“I don’t feel great about it,” White squirmed in his seat while answering a question about Aldo pulling out of the fight on SportsCenter Tuesday. “We’ve spent a lot of money promoting this fight, and a lot of people were excited about the fight. It’s definitely disappointing.”

White took heat for also pointing out that Aldo had canceled five fights since joining the UFC four years ago during the announcement. He had a magnanimous view of the top-ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the world compared to McGregor’s position, though.

McGregor accused Aldo of fabricating the extent of his injury and endorsed stripping him of the featherweight belt.

“As soon as the fight was announced, I said he wouldn’t fight me,” McGregor said. “Like I’ve said before, the eyes never lie. And every time I looked into that man’s eyes, I saw fear. I saw glass. I anticipated he would not show up.”

Aldo suffered a fractured rib, according to his team, in training last week. The UFC repeatedly referred to the ailment as a bruise, however, and declared Aldo fit to fight.

Several fighters have gutted through similar ailments in the past, including Donald Cerrone recently at UFC 187. But it’s doubtful anyone has ever pushed through the pain when the whole world, including most importantly the opponent who can target the affected area, is aware of the issue.

That’s why the anger toward Aldo feels misdirected, albeit understandable if only because fights with the potential of Aldo vs. McGregor don’t come around too often.

“If he mans up, we should certainly get it on,” McGregor said of Aldo. “But I don’t know whether he’ll be back. Like I said, he’s gone running.”

The 28-year-old Aldo will be back. It’s fathomable a chance for a matchup with McGregor, 26, never presents itself again though — not at the level of UFC 189 at least.

More than 20 percent of the UFC 189 ticket sales went to addresses from McGregor’s native Ireland, so the promotion acted right by its fans to keep him on the card. But it’s also a move as loaded with adverse effects as the spinning heel kick that hurt Aldo.

If Mendes prevails, and the betting odds give him about a 50/50 chance, then a bout between Aldo and McGregor will never hold the same significance.

It would escalate the total amount of money squandered by Aldo’s rib.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy