NBA Finals in Las Vegas: Betting picks and preview of Warriors vs. Cavaliers

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, June 4, 2015 | 2 a.m.

The eight days that have passed without basketball have given bettors ample time to talk themselves into calling for the first upset in the NBA Finals since 2011.

LeBron James was on the wrong side of that series four years ago, ending his first season with the Miami Heat in disappointment when the Dallas Mavericks overcame the odds to prevail in six games. But James could be the one who forces sports books to pay off a surplus of plus-money bets this year.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a consensus plus-190 (risking $1 to win $1.90) underdog around town in the 2015 NBA Finals with the Golden State Warriors coming back at minus-220 (risking $2.20 to win $1). The betting market has shifted the numbers in Cleveland’s direction ahead of tonight’s Golden State-hosted game 1, which begins at 6 and airs on ABC, as the Eastern Conference champions opened as high as plus-220 in the series.

It’s hard to fault the Cleveland supporters given how the playoffs have transpired. Although the Warriors were far superior in the regular season, the Cavaliers have arguably been the more impressive of the two teams in the playoffs.

Cleveland is 12-2 straight-up and 8-6 against the spread in the postseason to Golden State’s 12-3 straight-up and 7-8 against the spread. The Cavaliers’ scoring margin is bordering on plus-9 per game, nearly an entire point higher than that of the Warriors.

With teammates Kevin Love out with a dislocated shoulder and Kyrie Irving battling knee tendonitis, James has drawn the lion’s share of the credit. The narrative is that he’s undoubtedly reclaimed his place alone as the greatest player in the world, though it would feel like an insult to leave NBA MVP Steph Curry out of the conversation.

Although James carries more of a burden in other areas, Curry is both outscoring and shooting more efficiently than him. James’ field-goal percentage is a somewhat alarming .428 in the playoffs, his lowest rate in seven years.

Curry also edges James with the highest Player Efficiency Rating of anyone in the finals. Proposition wagers including the two will be among the most popular of sports books’ offerings during the finals.

In Game 1, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has James’ over/under points at 29.5. Curry’s total is 28.5.

For all James has achieved, he’s never won an NBA Finals series as an underdog. The Spurs went off as the slight favorite over the Heat last year, while they were chalkier in 2007 when spoiling James’ first championship trip with Cleveland.

Plenty of people in Las Vegas are invested in the King claiming his third ring within the next couple of weeks.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.