NBA Finals in Las Vegas: Betting preview and picks of Game 4

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, June 11, 2015 | 2 a.m.

For all the Cleveland Cavaliers have accomplished in winning two of the first three NBA Finals games, they’re still a victory away from clinching Las Vegas history.

The Cavaliers have never been favored to win the NBA championship in sports books through their 45 years as a franchise. Sure, they’ve been the favorite over every other team on several occasions, including most of the second half of this season.

But the odds have never given Cleveland better than a 50 percent chance of getting its own Larry O’Brien Trophy. Not even after the Cavaliers won their first two finals games ever earlier this week.

The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook opened its adjusted odds to win the series after Cleveland’s 95-91 victory in Game 3 with Golden State as a minus-120 (risking $1.20 to win $1) favorite. Cleveland comes back as the slightest of underdogs at even money going into Game 4, which begins at 6 p.m. tonight on ABC.

Anyone who still believes the Warriors will win the championship should act now. They’re available at the lowest price since falling into an identical 2-1 deficit on the road in the Western Conference semifinals against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Warriors shot up to plus-150 in the future odds after finding themselves in that hole, and supporters can find comfort in the similarities to the one they’re facing now. The Grizzlies had actually outscored the Warriors by two points through three games, while Golden State is holding a plus-1 point different so far versus Cleveland.

NBA MVP Stephen Curry was the object of scorn after going 15-for-40 from the field in Game 2 and Game 3 losses to the Grizzlies.

He’s made 15 of 43 shots from the field against the Cavaliers. Curry recovered against Memphis to make more than 50 percent of his three-point attempts in three straight victories.

For someone who finished the season second in effective field goal percentage — which adjusts for the added value of a three-point shot — it’s not improbable that Curry also turns his slump around in the finals.

Of course, Cleveland backers would suggest this is a different animal. Take the best attributes of Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph to form a super-player and the creation couldn’t equal what LeBron James is doing — with a core that’s probably weaker than Memphis’ second unit no less.

So far, James is having the greatest showing in NBA Finals history with averages of 41 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists per game. Sports books have enjoyed a profitable start to the championship, but James might be the one force keeping them from holding a true fortune.

He’s ravaging the always popular “over” prop bets on his individual performance. The Superbook has posted totals on both James’ total points and rebounds plus assists in each of the first six games.

James is 5-1 to the over with the only exception being the eight rebounds and six assists in the Game 1 loss falling short of the the combined total. In Game 1, the over/unders were 29.5 points and 17.5 rebounds plus assists for the world’s best player.

They’ve swelled all the way to 35.5 points and 19.5 rebounds plus assists before tonight’s Game 4 — no doubt the highest totals an individual player has ever commanded in the finals.

Nab one more win, and James’ team will finally command the same respect.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.