NCAA Tournament by the odds: How Las Vegas sports books see Midwest Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Tuesday, March 17, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Updated Wednesday, March 18, 2015 | 10:48 a.m.

Barack Obama might be the only person who can relate to the position of the Kentucky basketball team heading into the NCAA Tournament — and not because he’ll probably pick it to win in his annual bracket.

Like the president of the United States, the Wildcats find themselves in a status so exalted that no contemporaries can compare. The de facto method to contextualize undefeated, overall No. 1 seed Kentucky’s standing, therefore, is by looking into the past.

It’s why gamblers have scrambled like lobbyists trying to secure votes in an attempt to figure out when the last time a team was as big of a favorite as Kentucky at plus-110 (risking $1 to win $1.10) to win the tournament. It’s why former great players, particularly from Kentucky, have campaigned that their teams could knock off this year’s Wildcats.

John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins, the stars of coach John Calipari’s first team in Lexington, Ky., six seasons ago, started with the claims that the 2015 bunch would stand no chance against their 2010 forefathers. Anthony Davis and Doron Lamb, members of the 2012 national championship team, joined in the conversation by anointing themselves the best team in recent memory.

There’s a reason Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns, Aaron Harrison or any of the other key cogs from this year’s team haven’t gone out of their way to respond. They don’t need to.

Numbers speak for the 2015 Wildcats, which are the best team ever tracked by Ken Pomeroy’s analytics. Their plus-21 per game point differential, additionally, flies over the plus-17 and plus-14 of the 2010 and 2012 teams, respectively.

Although at least some bookmakers say they’d post the 2012 team as a slight favorite over this year’s group in an imaginary game, the odds at this point in the season contradict the stance.

Throw out the 2010 team because even though Cousins believes West Virginia beating Kentucky in the Elite 8 that year was equivalent to Ralph Nader besting George Bush, the Wildcats were only 4-point favorites in the game. Kentucky wasn’t even the overall March Madness favorite that year, entering as a 7-to-2 second choice.

The 2012 team could make a better argument because, like this year’s Wildcats, they were also offered at the lowest odds to win the tournament in years. But the line was still plus-180, a far cry from this year’s virtual pick’em price on Kentucky.

Although there are no official records dating back far enough — and gambling wasn’t permitted on UNLV in-state in the 1990s — the best guess is that Kentucky is the largest favorite going into the tournament since UNLV in 1991. Veteran Boyd Gaming bookmaker Bob Scucci, for what it’s worth, would make Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon and company a 6-point favorite over Kentucky, according to RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

Fixating on contests that could never happen may sound as constructive as a weeklong filibuster, but it’s more compelling than counting the bodies of teams Kentucky has left in its wake so far.

The Wildcats may have ditched the platoon system long ago after an injury to Alex Poythress and a role reduction of Marcus Lee but they’ve still plundered their way through the season.

They haven’t been less than an 8-point favorite since the start of 2015 with the average point spreads on their games an astronomical minus-16. It’s partly a strength of schedule issue — Kentucky’s 41st in the category, according to Pomeroy, would make it the second highest to win the tournament behind Florida’s 42nd in 2006 — because of the mediocre SEC.

But it doesn’t project to get any better in the tournament. Not until the Final Four at least.

Exempt from injuries or suspensions, Kentucky won’t give fewer than eight points in any game in the Midwest Region, which concludes next weekend in Cleveland. The Wildcats received the bracket their unbeaten run entitled them to get.

One of the top four seeds advances to the Final Four roughly 80 percent of the time. According to Las Vegas power ratings, Kentucky’s region came down with the weakest No. 2 seed in Kansas, the second-worst No. 3 seed in Notre Dame and the weakest No. 4 seed in Maryland.

There was no politicking necessary for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook to post Kentucky as a historic favorite to win its region at minus-300 (risking $3 to win $1). That translates to a 58 percent chance when accounting for the house’s hold.

No other team in the tournament has a Final Four expectancy of higher than 35 percent in sports books. No other team in the region has a better chance than an 8.5 percent chance to reach Indianapolis.

The divide between Kentucky and the rest of the teams it could play in the first four rounds is best illustrated by a game that already took place in the Racing Capital of the World. Kentucky flattened Kansas, 72-40, as a 7-point favorite for the worst loss of coach Bill Self’s career in a Champions Classic matchup last November

Casinos would post a larger line now with the Wildcats’ rating having moved way up at the same time the Jayhawks’ plummeted. It’s hard to believe, once upon a time, Kansas and Kentucky opened at the same 12-to-1 price to win the national championship last year.

Kansas’ future odds have inflated most of the year, peaking now at 60-to-1. Despite winning an 11th straight Big 12 conference championship, Las Vegas places this year’s Kansas team a level below the rest.

The Don Best Advantage power ratings, used by several sports books in town, rates Kansas as the 14th best team in the country. That’s more of a No. 4 seed than the Jayhawks’ actual No. 2 seed, which felt more like a reward for playing the nation’s toughest schedule than something earned with their résumé.

In the last month leading up to the tournament, the Jayhawks have gone 5-4 straight-up and 2-7 against the spread. Hence why No. 3 seed Notre Dame and No. 7 seed Wichita State are posted at identical 8-to-1 prices to win the Midwest.

Pieces quoting anonymous coaches on the best way to beat the Wildcats have sprung up all over the Internet. The most commonly cited routes, aside from praying for a Kentucky off night, appear to be hitting long-range shots and bearing down with interior defense.

The Irish shape up as capable of pulling off the first part as the nation’s leading team in effective field goal percentage, a metric that adjusts for the extra value of a 3-pointer. Three sharpshooting starters surround senior Jerian Grant, the ACC’s leader in win shares and offensive win shares who scores 17 points per game.

Pat Connaughton, Demetrius Jackson and Steve Vasturia all shoot higher than 40 percent from beyond the arc. But Notre Dame has been challenged all year on the other side of the court, ranking 112th in defensive efficiency.

Contrasting with Kansas, which could more likely hold its own defensively ranking seventh in the nation in efficiency, Notre Dame has finished the season 7-1 straight-up and against the spread including winning the ACC tournament championship.

Wichita State could challenge Kentucky more than anyone in the region. Professional college-basketball bettors have long heralded coach Gregg Marshall as one of the best in the nation.

Marshall is inventive with a fundamentally sound team that hardly ever commits turnovers while leading the nation in steal percentage with stealthy junior point guard Fred VanVleet.

The Shockers banishing the Wildcats would have some poetry after Kentucky broke Wichita State’s undefeated season in last year’s tournament with a 78-76 win as a 4.5-point underdog in the round of 32. Kentucky probably thinks the ring of ousting West Virginia, the last team to top the Wildcats in the tournament before the Final Four, sounds sweeter.

The Mountaineers tied for the best against the spread bet at 17-13 in the nation’s toughest conference, the Big 12, with their pressure defense. They get back leading scorer Juwan Staten and role player Gary Browne, both of whom had missed the last two weeks with injuries, for the tournament.

Moneylines imply only a 43 percent chance that the bracket holds with West Virginia and Maryland beating tough opening opponents in No. 12 seed Buffalo and No. 13 seed Valparaiso, respectively. But the Mountaineers, 4.5-point favorites over the Bulls, and Terrapins, 5-point favorites over the Crusaders, would make for a near-pick’em game in the round of 32.

The spread would be similar for a hypothetical matchup between Kansas and Wichita State, an in-state showdown the latter has sought for years. Notre Dame would only lay a few points to the winner of a game between No. 6 seed Butler and No. 11 seed Texas, which is currently a 1-point favorite.

The Longhorns gave the Wildcats one of their toughest tests of the season in a 63-51 loss as 12.5-point underdogs in December. Texas is likely the closest match for Kentucky talent-wise, especially with a rotation of long big men featuring freshman Myles Turner and junior Cameron Ridley.

An 11-seed in the Elite Eight might sound like a stretch, but all the tight potential matchups make the Midwest the most volatile region beyond its one executive ruler. The problem with Texas, which has underwhelmed this season with a 20-13 straight-up record, is a history of impeaching itself early from the postseason under coach Rick Barnes.

The Longhorns haven’t covered in an NCAA Tournament game in six years, going 2-4 straight-up. Kentucky has posted an 18-3 straight-up, 14-6-1 against the spread NCAA Tournament record within the same frame.

The Wildcats are the most powerful team in the world, and a runaway leader in the polls as most likely champion for a reason.

Pick to win the region: Kentucky at minus-300 With these prices, there’s no value on any team to win the region. As tempted as I was to gamble with someone like Wichita State, there are too many teams that could come out of the bottom part of the bracket. Kentucky must have around a 95 percent chance of reaching the Elite Eight, so I’ll lay the big price and count on it not tensing up before the Final Four.

Midwest Region Picks Against The Spread (in order of confidence)

Note: It’s a losing long-term strategy to pick every game, but we’ll go for it in the blog anyway and track records through every round. Check back after Tuesday’s first four games for the final pick.

No. 13 seed Valparaiso plus-5 vs. No. 4 seed Maryland

No. 11 seed Texas minus-1 vs. No. 6 seed Butler

No. 5 seed West Virginia minus-4 vs. No. 12 seed Buffalo

No. 16 seed Hampton plus-9 vs. No. 16 seed Manhattan

No. 16 seed Hampton plus-33 vs. No. 1 seed Kentucky

No. 14 seed Northeastern plus-12.5 vs. No. 3 seed Notre Dame

No. 8 seed Cincinnati plus-2 vs. No. 9 seed Purdue

No. 2 seed Kansas minus-11.5 vs. No. 15 seed New Mexico State

No. 10 seed Indiana plus-5.5 vs. No. 7 seed Wichita State

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.