NCAA Tournament by the odds: Las Vegas picks and preview of the Sweet 16

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, March 26, 2015 | 2 a.m.

The two favorites to win the NCAA Tournament compete in primetime tonight.

Kentucky and Arizona must win two more games before meeting on the court, but they’re facing off in a contest for attention, and in Las Vegas specifically, betting interest, a few hours from now. The Sweet 16 matchups for the pair of Wildcats, which collectively have better than a 50 percent chance of winning the national championship, according to the future odds, are scheduled to tip off within 30 minutes of each other.

The point spreads are similarly separated by small margins. Overall No. 1 seed Kentucky lays 13 points in the Midwest Region semifinals against No. 5 seed West Virginia in Cleveland.

No other team playing in the next two days comes close to that line except West Region No. 2 seed Arizona, which gives 10.5 points to No. 6 seed Xavier in Los Angeles. The average spread of the other six games to get into the Elite Eight, by comparison, is 4.5 points.

Find Talking Points’ picks for all the Sweet 16 games below, listed in order of confidence. I’ve gone 27-24-1 against the spread picking every game — an inherently unprofitable betting strategy — so far in the NCAA Tournament.

No. 5 seed Utah plus-6 vs. No. 1 seed Duke This line is inflated after the Blue Devils registered blowouts in their first two games by virtue of an unsustainable .646 field goal percentage. The Utes have the bodies to defend Jahlil Okafor, who’s 21-for-27 with 47 points so far in the tournament.

No. 3 seed Oklahoma plus-2.5 vs. No. 7 seed Michigan State Two weeks ago, Oklahoma would have laid at least 2.5 points in this matchup without anyone second-guessing the line. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo has a daunting tournament track record and his team is unquestionably improved. But that’s not enough to account for a five-point swing in the direction of the team with the best player on the floor, Buddy Hield, and the stronger defense.

No. 1 seed Kentucky minus-13 vs. No. 5 seed West Virginia If this pick forces to me forfeit my spot as a fade-Kentucky-in-the-tournament board member, then so be it. The Wildcats slept walk through the first two rounds, shooting poorly and looking lethargic, but still nearly covered the 15-point spread against Cincinnati and led Hampton by 19 at halftime. Their focus will be laser sharp, for the Sweet 16, especially now that West Virginia is yapping, against the last team to knock Kentucky out of the tournament before the Final Four.

No. 3 seed Notre Dame plus-2 vs. No. 7 seed Wichita State The Irish have played a handful of defensively stout and fundamentally excellent teams like Wichita State this season and acquitted themselves well, most recently seen last round against Butler. The Shockers, which played flawlessly to beat Kansas for one of the biggest wins in school history on Sunday, haven’t seen any offenses on the level of the Notre Dame.

No. 4 seed Louisville minus-2.5 vs. No. 9 seed North Carolina State The Wolfpack have experienced the most good fortune of any team left in the tournament. They parlayed an LSU collapse that featured six missed free throws at the end of the game in the round of 64 to the ultra Villanova off-night where it barely shot 30 percent Saturday. North Carolina State also takes a wealth of bad shots even when its not playing a top-five defensive team like Louisville.

No. 2 seed Arizona minus-10.5 vs. No. 6 seed Xavier The Musketeers had something resembling an out of body experience in shooting nearly 68 percent and holding Georgia State to 11 rebounds in the round of 32 — and still only covered the opening line by a half-point. The numbers will crash significantly against the Wildcats, which are the best defensive rebounding and third-best overall defensive team in the country according to Ken Pomeroy’s metrics.

No. 11 seed UCLA plus-8.5 vs. No. 2 seed Gonzaga The Bruins are the most improved, and therefore the most undervalued, team still playing. They’ve covered four in a row, and gone 15-5 against the spread since bottoming out with a five-game losing streak that included a 87-74 defeat to Gonzaga at home as 5.5-point underdogs.

No. 4 seed North Carolina plus-6.5 vs. No. 1 seed Wisconsin Michigan State deserved to take Wisconsin down in the Big Ten Tournament championship game — ultimately falling 80-69 in overtime to the chagrin of Spartans plus-7 bettors — after speeding the Badgers up and winning the rebounding battle. North Carolina is capable of using the same strategy, and doing it better.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.