Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

NCAA Tournament by the odds: Las Vegas picks and preview of Sunday’s Elite 8

Michigan State Tom Izzo

Associated Press

Michigan State coach Tom Izzo reacts during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Penn State, Thursday, Feb. 6, 2014, in East Lansing, Mich. Michigan State won 82-67.

Three of the top six coaches in all-time Elite 8 appearances bring teams into Sunday’s regional finals, including each of the two with the most.

Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski reached the round for the 14th time this season. Despite coaching 11 seasons fewer than Krzyzewski, Louisville’s Rick Pitino advanced to his 12th Elite 8.

Their dominance is so extensive that it’s difficult to accurately gauge from a betting perspective. Pitino is 5-4 straight up and against the spread in the Elite 8 to Krzyzewski’s 4-2 straight up and 2-4 against the spread over the past 20 years.

But reliable point spread data is limited dating any further back. Pitino is likely 7-4 against the spread and 6-5 straight up, having brought No. 6 seed Providence to the Final Four in 1987 before nearly stunning top-seeded Duke in a one-point loss with Kentucky in 1992.

But the average margin of victory for Krzyzewski’s first seven Elite 8s, all victories, was eight points to make it almost impossible to predict. He’s 11-2 straight up in the round.

The third member of the group, Michigan State’s Tom Izzo, has gotten to the Elite 8 in a preposterous nine of 20 total seasons. Izzo is 5-2 straight up, 4-3-1 against the spread in the Elite 8 going into Sunday’s matchup against Pitino and the Cardinals.

Gonzaga coach Mark Few is Sunday’s previously excluded party as he’ll make his first showing in a regional final against Krzyzewski’s Blue Devils in the last game before the Final Four.

Find out which coaches Talking Points trusts with picks below. The blog is 31-29-2 against the spread choosing every game of the tournament, an inherently unprofitable betting strategy. Picks, as always, are listed in order of confidence with lines the best currently available on the chosen side.

No. 4 seed Louisville plus-2.5 vs. No. 7 seed Michigan State For as much as bettors hail Izzo as March Madness’ king of cashing tickets, it’s not like Pitino dwells with the peasants. While Izzo has gone 36-32-3 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament since arriving at Michigan State, Pitino ranks just percentage points behind in the same 20-year span at 28-19 versus the number. Pitino has one more championship and Final Four, though his first two were before Izzo was coaching.

For all the success of Izzo and Pitino, it’s moderately surprising their teams have only faced each other twice ever in the postseason. The underdog has won both previous meetings outright, with Michigan State knocking off top overall seed Louisville 64-52 in the 2009 Elite Eight catching 6.5 points on the betting line. The Cardinals returned the favor in 2012, beating the No. 1 seed Spartans 57-44 as 5.5-point underdogs.

By any objective measure, including Las Vegas power ratings, these are the two programs’ weakest teams in the past four years since they met. They’re both susceptible to stretches of offensive ineptitude, seen last round from Michigan State when it fell behind 10 early to Oklahoma after missing seven straight field goal attempts. Louisville needed a controversial finish just to escape the round of 64 as 8.5-point favorites against UC-Irvine, where it shot a nudge over 40 percent. But the Cardinals are the stronger defensive team and they’ve got the best player in Montezl Harrell, who could make all the difference in a contest this close.

No. 1 seed Duke minus-2 vs. No. 2 seed Gonzaga Like every other round so far, sports books are going to root against Duke. All but one of the few shops to post Duke minus-2 — Treasure Island being the exception — added an extra half-point after early action on the Blue Devils. One would be hard-pressed to characterize Duke as undeserving of the backing at this point, even following the after-the-buzzer cover against Utah.

The Blue Devils have outscored their three NCAA Tournament opponents by 54 points, which is 13 more than the Bulldogs against a comparable slate of competition. Looking at the season as a whole, a bet on Gonzaga would probably be in order. The Bulldogs were more dominant, though against a far weaker schedule, with almost identical adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency numbers according to Ken Pomeroy's numbers.

But the much-maligned eye test favors the Blue Devils. Their starters — they’ve had a different leading scorer in every tournament game among Justice Winslow, Jahlil Okafor and Quinn Cook, not to mention facilitator extraordinaire Tyus Jones — have looked perhaps even more like an NBA team than Kentucky’s. They’ve ramped up their energy levels on defense, helping to uncover the figurative extra gear that so many teams in the past have ridden to championships.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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