Vegas picks and preview of the Kentucky Derby: Fight bolsters race in sports books

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, May 2, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Some may assume that one of the biggest sporting events in Las Vegas history will take away from another staple on the gambling calendar Saturday afternoon.

On the contrary, Mayweather vs. Pacquiao hysteria has enhanced betting action locally on the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Sports books expect a larger handle than the past several years on the annual horse race, which has an expected post time of 3:24 p.m.

Casinos offer all the typical pari-mutuel wagering options on the Kentucky Derby, but also supplement it with proposition bets and horse vs. horse matchups. William Hill sports books, Nevada’s largest operator with more than 100 locations, even got creative and tied the fight to the race with one bet.

Bettors can gamble on whether No. 13 Itsaknockout, a horse sponsored by the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao promotion for obvious reasons, finishes in a higher position than total rounds in the welterweight title bout.

Itsaknockout is a minus-165 (risking $1.65 to win $1) favorite to post a higher finish than rounds in the fight, which comes back at plus-135 (risking $1 to win $1.35).

Itsaknockout is one of three horses from the stable of Todd Pletcher, the winningest trainer of all-time in terms of money, along with No. 2 Carpe Diem and No. 3 Materiality.

Carpe Diem and Materiality are the third and fourth choices on the morning line, respectively, and expected to give Pletcher a better chance to exorcise his Derby demons than Itsaknockout. Despite running 40 horses in the race for the roses, Pletcher has only won once with favorite Super Saver in 2010.

In a matchup prop at William Hill, Carpe Diem is a minus-130 favorite to finish better than Materiality who comes back at Even money.

The two horses ahead of the pair, American Pharoah and Dortmund, are both trained by Pletcher rival Bob Baffert, who’s won the Kentucky Derby three times but not since 2002 with War Emblem.

American Pharoah is a minus-150 favorite over Dortmund, plus-120, at William Hill. Both horses could hand the sports book chain a loss in its future book, as they’ve been popular bets for months.

Dortmund opened at 75-to-1 and took 32 percent of all the money wagered to win the race. American Pharoah was a smaller 30-to-1 but attracted 17 percent of the handle.

Perhaps a large amount of prop-betting action can help offset the potential losses. William Hill might have Mayweather vs. Pacquiao to thank.

Check below for some of my favorite prop betting options on this year’s Kentucky Derby. All odds come from William Hill.

Mayweather vs. Pacquiao rounds plus-135 over Itsaknockout finish position I wouldn’t actually bet this one, but how to resist taking a position on such a Vegas-centric option? Pletcher’s longest shot is tied for 10th with four other horses at 30-to-1 on the morning line, so let’s say his likely finish is somewhere in the middle of the pack. I have a hard time, on the other hand, envisioning any scenario other than Mayweather and Pacquiao going the full 12 rounds. Because there’s not going to be a knockout, the plus-price makes Itsaknockout worth the gamble.

Will Kentucky Derby winner win the Preakness? No at minus-155 The line, which implies a 41 percent chance of back-to-back wins, is a shade too low because of the recent history with two of the last three Kentucky Derby winners emerging victorious two weeks later in Baltimore. But only 11 horses in the last 33 years before that, since the last Triple Crown winner, had pulled off the Derby-Preakness double. And this year looks like a particularly competitive group of 3-year-olds.

Far Right minus-115 to finish better than Itsaknockout Hate to bet against the horse I’m counting on in the boxing prop, but this is Far Right’s only matchup at William Hill. Far Right has the purest latest speed in the race and drew the No. 20 post, coincidentally appropriate to his name but far more importantly favorable to his style.

Firing Line minus-115 to finish better than Mubtaahij Mubtaahij is one of those Kentucky Derby horses where the story outweighs the talent. The colt is Sheikh-owned, Irish-bred and Dubai-raced. But he’s not a true contender like Firing Line, a horse that’s has twice lost to Dortmund by just a nose and will be ridden by three-time Derby winner Gary Stevens.

Danzig Moon minus-115 to finish better than Bolo Another horse with late speed, Danzig Moon is one of the higher variance choices on the board. He’s said to have the talent to beat any horse in the field but oftentimes seems disinterested in tapping into it. I’ll take the potential over a horse in Bolo who’s more equipped to run on grass.

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.