Tom Gannam / AP
Sunday, Nov. 1, 2015 | 2 a.m.
Week 8: Bengals at Steelers
- Which side would you take in Bengals at Steelers? (Poll Consensus year to date: 4-2-1)
- Bengals pick'em — 62.6%
- Steelers pick'em — 37.4%
This poll is closed, see Full Results »
Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.
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It’s only appropriate that the likely first game to close as pick’em this NFL season is between the two best teams to bet on so far.
That the matchup also features one of the NFL’s most heated rivalries should make Cincinnati at Pittsburgh an obvious choice for main-screen placement at sports books across Las Vegas when the 10 a.m. slate of games kick off this morning.
The Bengals are the last standing unbeaten team against the spread at 5-0-1, while the Steelers were similarly unblemished until last week. Pittsburgh lost 23-13 as 3-point underdogs at Kansas City behind third-string quarterback Landry Jones to fall to 5-1-1 against the spread as Cincinnati rested at home on a bye week.
No one’s sleeping on the Steelers this week with Ben Roethlisberger expected back for the first time in a month, as the betting line plummeted after the Bengals opened as 2.5-point favorites.
It’s the game of the week in Sun’s handicapping contest and a required pick for three competing sportswriters placing six wagers per week off of the South Point betting board. Full week 8 selections are listed at the bottom of the page.
The AFC North came into the season as the second-hardest division to call, behind only the NFC South, with Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Baltimore all given somewhere between a 25 and 35 percent chance to prevail by the odds. That turned out as a flawed forecast, with the Bengals now as assured as any team in the league at earning a home playoff game at minus-2000 (risking $20 to win $1) to win the divisional crown.
The Steelers, which are 2.5 games behind but have two games left against the Bengals, are the only team within striking distance at odds of plus-600 (risking $1 to win $6). Much credit has gone to Roethlisberger’s backups for keeping Pittsburgh alive with a 3-2 straight-up, 3-1-1 against the spread record since the 12-year veteran went down with a MCL strain in the third quarter of a win at St. Louis.
But it might be premature to go naming Pittsburgh streets after Jones or Michael Vick yet.
All five games without Roethlisberger went under sports books’ point total — as well as six of seven total for the Steelers this year — behind a resurgent defense. Pittsburgh won the AFC North for the first time since 2010 last season, but with little help from a defense that sullied the franchise’s proud tradition of limiting points and led to veteran coordinator Dick LeBeau’s forced resignation.
The Steelers had the third worst defense in the league, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, and it was perceived as a weakness again coming into 2015. The unit has thrived, however, under LeBeau replacement Keith Butler, particularly against the run where it’s allowing only 3.9 yards per carry.
Pittsburgh boasts a vintage wall of linebackers featuring Lawrence Timmons and Stephon Tuitt, though the latter is expected to miss his second straight game with a knee injury. The Steelers struggled without Tuitt against the Chiefs, allowing former undrafted running back Charcandrick West to run for 5 yards per carry and a total of 110 yards.
Something hints Pittsburgh would be OK swapping Tuitt out on one side of the ball if it meant Roethlisberger was back on the other. Before getting hurt, the 33-year-old franchise pillar was seemingly continuing the pinnacle he reached last year by completing 75 percent of his passes for more than 10 yards per attempt.
Roethlisberger has the luxury of playing with arguably both the NFL’s best receiver, Antonio Brown, and best pass-catching running back, LeVeon Bell, but he makes the most of it. If he had enough attempts to officially qualify, Roethlisberger would lead the NFL in QBR this season — knocking Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton out of the top spot.
As it stands, Dalton reigns with an 84.7 rating partly by virtue of throwing 14 touchdowns to two interceptions. If Pittsburgh gets plaudits for its defensive surprise, Cincinnati deserves equal praise for an offensive revival.
The Bengals lead the league at gaining 6.1 yards per play with every part of the offense grading out above average. Six of their seven games have gone over the total, much to the delight of bettors.
Both these teams have specialized in rewarding their backers. It will be a change to see one of them failing to do so today.
Check below for full picks for the week 8 handicapping contest. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.
Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion
2015 Record: 23-17-2 (3-3 last week)
Titans plus-4.5 at Texans
Falcons minus-7 vs. Buccaneers
Giants plus-3.5 at Saints
Bengals vs. Steelers under 48.5
Raiders plus-3 vs. Jets
Colts plus-7 at Panthers
Taylor Bern
2015 Record: 18-21-3 (2-4 last week)
Chiefs minus-3.5 vs. Lions in London
Bears plus-1 vs. Vikings
Steelers pick’em vs. Bengals
Chargers plus-3.5 at Ravens
Texans minus-4.5 vs. Titans
Colts plus-7 at Panthers
Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)
2015 Record: 16-23-3
Bears plus-1 vs. Vikings
Buccaneers vs. Falcons over 48.5
Giants plus-3.5 at Saints
Steelers pick’em vs. Bengals
Bengals vs. Steelers over 48.5
Colts plus-7 at Panthers
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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