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March 18, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 12 winners against the spread

Cowboys-Dolphins

Wilfredo Lee / AP

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo throws the ball Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015, during the first half of an NFL game against the Miami Dolphins in Miami Gardens, Fla.

11/22/15: NFL Games

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (5) is sacked by St. Louis Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald (99) during the first half of an NFL football game in Baltimore, Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015. (AP Photo/Gail Burton) Launch slideshow »

Week 12: Vikings at Falcons

Which side would you take in Vikings at Falcons? (Poll consensus year to date: 6-3-2)
Vikings plus-1 — 72.9%
Falcons minus-1 — 27.1%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

The NFC East race has come down to the final game of the regular season in four of the past six years.

It’s right on pace to happen again. The division is far and away the hardest to call in the NFL, according the odds, with six weeks left to play.

It’s the only division with no team given better than a 50 percent chance to win after adjusting for the house’s hold. There’s also no team eliminated, as all four have a probability of at least 13 percent to secure a home playoff game.

The NFC East will be the central focus of the traditional morning/afternoon Thanksgiving games this year, as the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles tangle in virtual pick’em contests. The Cowboys —3-7 straight-up and against the spread — and the Eagles — 4-6 straight-up and against the spread — are in the middle at odds of plus-325 (risking $1 to win $3.25) and plus-400, respectively, to win the divisional crown.

The other two NFC East teams, the New York Giants and Washington Redskins, play each other on Sunday. The Giants are the current favorite at minus-110 (risking $1.10 to win $1) but that hasn’t counted for much so far this season.

The Redskins, currently plus-600, are the only team that hasn’t topped the future odds to win the NFC East at some point this season yet they could wind up in first by the end of Sunday.

Talking Points just hopes to win most of the games on the way to the conclusion. A down 6-7-1 against the spread record last week dropped the overall record to 84-69-7 picking every game.

Check below for week 12 picks, listed in descending confidence categories with attached individual records. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas.

Plays (23-16-2)

Dallas Cowboys pick’em vs. Carolina Panthers Cowboys have now won and covered in eight of their last 10 games with Tony Romo healthy and under center. They were a 4.5-point favorite in this spot before Romo fractured his collarbone in week 2, and even though Carolina has exceeded all expectations, that’s too large of a shift.

New York Jets minus-3 vs. Miami Dolphins Nice opportunity to buy low on the Jets, which deserve as much credit for their 5-1 straight-up and against the spread start as reduction for a recent 0-4 straight-up, 1-3 against the spread stretch. New York has maintained its No. 1 ranking in rush defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and running the ball is conveniently Miami’s only strength.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-3.5 at Indianapolis Colts Tampa Bay is better on both offense, gaining 5.8 yards per play to Indianapolis’ 5.1, and defense, surrendering 5.2 yards per play to Indianapolis’ 5.8. Indianapolis was extremely fortunate to escape Atlanta with a 24-21 victory as closing 3.5-point underdogs after getting outgained by 99 yards.

New Orleans Saints plus-3 at Houston Texans Coming out of a bye week with Dennis Allen taking over defensive coordinator duties, the Saints are virtually guaranteed to at least incrementally improve their dreadful defense. They already have a sizable offensive advantage, recording 6 yards per play to the Texans’ league-worst 4.9.

Seattle Seahawks minus-3.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Now is the time to start backing the Seahawks, which have always played their best at the end of the year under the coach Pete Carroll/quarterback Russell Wilson regime. The Seahawks have gone 17-6-1 against the spread from Thanksgiving through the end of the season over the last three years.

Leans (29-22-3)

Philadelphia Eagles plus-2.5 at Detroit Lions Teams coming off a blowout loss are historically a strong bet, a result of the betting market overreacting in the next week. There’s evidence of that happening here, as the Eagles were 3-point favorites over the Lions before losing 45-17 as 7-point favorites over the Buccaneers to send the line swinging nearly a touchdown.

Atlanta Falcons minus-1 vs. Minnesota Vikings Hard to back the Falcons right now with weekly inexplicable Dan Quinn coaching blunders and Matt Ryan turnovers, but their tailspin is a bit overstated. Atlanta has only gotten outscored by a total of seven points during its three-game losing streak, and still holds a better point differential than Minnesota on the year.

Guesses (32-31-1)

Cincinnati Bengals minus-9 vs. St. Louis Rams The Rams average a league-worst 6.1 yards per pass attempt despite facing six consecutive opponents ranked in the bottom half of DVOA in pass defense. Neither Case Keenum nor Nick Foles stand much of a chance against Cincinnati, which is 10th against the pass.

San Francisco 49ers plus-10.5 at Arizona Cardinals Arizona has slowed from a dominant start to the season, only outscoring opponents by an average of four points in its last five games while going 2-3 against the spread. Unwilling to pay the extra tax on a team that previously had never given more than a touchdown on the road under coach Bruce Arians.

Chicago Bears plus-9 at Green Bay Packers Offensive problems persist for the Packers as their “breakout” win against the Vikings last week had the running game producing all of 3.6 yards per carry with Aaron Rodgers completing only 47 percent of his passes. Line is slightly inflated, which has become customary for a Bears team that has covered the closing number in six of their last seven games.

Buffalo Bills plus-6 at Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs can’t keep up last month’s pace of winning every game by an average off 23 points forever. Inclined to take the value with the Bills, which were only 3-point underdogs in this game on last week’s early line.

Tennessee Titans plus-2 vs. Oakland Raiders A nice scheduling spot for the Titans, which have 10 days prepare while the Raiders travel more than 2,000 miles East for the second straight week. Oakland has come into three games as a favorite this season, and lost outright on every occasion.

New England Patriots minus-3 at Denver Broncos Broncos were able to slide past the Bears 17-15 as closing 2.5-point favorites by gaining nearly 5 yards per carry to keep the pressure off new starting quarterback Brock Osweiler. New England, rated eighth in rush defense by DVOA, won’t allow the same productivity on the ground and it’s difficult to trust Osweiler against the best team in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens plus-3 at Cleveland Browns Hard to handicap how Baltimore’s depleted offense will perform, so prefer to focus on the defense. The Ravens have a major edge on that side of the ball, giving up only 5.5 yards per play to the Browns’ 6.2.

New York Giants minus-2.5 at Washington Redskins Might as well keep fading Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins, who’s now 5-10 against the spread as a starter over the last two seasons. Like several of the franchise’s teams in the recent past, New York appears to play better on the road where its 4-1 against the spread this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars minus-3.5 vs. San Diego Chargers Over 46.5 points might be the best betting option with two horrendous pass defenses trying to stop decent aerial offenses. Might be dangerously succumbing to recency bias, but the Jaguars have looked far superior over the last month in going 3-1 straight-up, 4-0 against the spread to the Chargers’ 0-4 straight-up, 1-3 against the spread.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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