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March 29, 2024

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College football by the odds: Las Vegas picks and preview of Week 5

Mark Richt Alabama

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Georgia head coach Mark Richt is greeted by fans as he arrives at Vanderbilt Stadium for an NCAA college football game against Vanderbilt Saturday, Sept. 12, 2015, in Nashville, Tenn.

Alabama and Georgia don’t always play, but when they do, they prefer the highest stakes imaginable.

Despite the talk of the annual matchup between Alabama and LSU as a game of the century, it’s the more rare cross-divisional matchup that has staged some of the SEC’s most interesting showdowns in recent years. Georgia and Alabama haven’t faced off since the 2012 SEC Championship Game, which was an unofficial play-in game to the national championship.

The Bulldogs, 8-point underdogs, came five yards from upsetting the Crimson Tide, which parlayed the 32-28 victory into a title by blowing out Notre Dame. The meeting before that, in 2008, was the last time Alabama was an underdog in the regular season.

The Crimson Tide walloped the Bulldogs 41-30 as 6-point underdogs in a coronation of their impending dynasty. Georgia gives Alabama 2 points on the betting line at home this year with a golden chance to avenge the last two painful defeats.

It’s the first game this season between two teams listed at less than 20-to-1 to win the national championship at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. Alabama remains the ninth choice at 18-to-1 despite already enduring a loss, while Georgia is tied for fourth at 10-to-1.

The game will be the biggest of the year when it kicks off at 12:30 Saturday afternoon, but not necessarily by the end of the night. Notre Dame, 15-to-1, and Clemson, 25-to-1, also square off in a game between contenders.

And the betting line is even shorter, with Clemson laying just 1 point. Talking Points is excited to get to the games, especially after another winning 5-4-1 showing last week to bring the season total to 25-16-1 against the spread.

That’s on pace for the goal of anything above 50 percent because of the difficulty of forcing a pick on the 10 biggest games of the week.

Check below for week 5 in the college football by the odds series.

    • TCU wide receiver Josh Doctson (9) catches a touchdown pass against Texas Tech defensive back Paul Banks (28) during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 26, 2015, in Lubbock, Texas.

      Texas plus-14.5 at TCU, over/under: 71; 9 a.m. on ABC

      No matter what happens in the game Saturday morning, TCU has already made history against its perceived big-brother in-state rival.

      The Horned Frogs are a bigger favorite than they’ve ever been against the Longhorns in this year’s game. Last year was the first time TCU was ever favored — dating back at least 30 years as far as available point-spread data — and it responded by smashing Texas 48-10 while laying only 4.5 points.

      That was in the middle of an 11-2 against the spread run for TCU last year, which hasn’t carried into the new season. The Horned Frogs are yet to cover against a Football Bowl Subdivision team.

      The real question about the line is what would have happened with a few different bounces. TCU only rallied to beat Texas Tech 55-52 as 7-point favorites after Aaron Green caught a deflected Trevone Boykin pass in the final seconds last week.

      Special teams miscues cost Texas for a second straight week, as kicker Nick Rose’s missed extra point against California was followed by a bobbled snap from punter Michael Dickson to set up a game-winning field goal from Oklahoma State. The 30-27 loss resulted in a push of the 3-point spread, and dropped Texas’ against the spread record to 1-2-1.

      TCU was going to lay a historic amount of points regardless, but a different break likely would have diminished the number to some degree.

      Pick: TCU minus-14.5 The one time this young Texas team went on the road this season — losing 38-3 to Notre Dame — it was an unmitigated disaster.

    • West Virginia running back Wendell Smallwood (4) West Virginia quarterback Skyler Howard (3) during the first half/ second half of a NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 26, 2015, in Morgantown, W.Va.

      West Virginia plus-7 at Oklahoma, over/under: 59.5; 9 a.m. on Fox Sports 1

      It’s that time of year where bettors’ biggest challenge is rectifying the dichotomy between a team’s accomplishments and its competition level.

      West Virginia is a perfect case in point. The Mountaineers are one of the only teams in the nation to have not trailed yet this season, and they have covered the point spread in their two FBS games by at least three touchdowns.

      But those games were against Maryland and Georgia Southern. Oklahoma is an identical 3-0 straight-up, 2-1 against the spread but at least has an overtime 31-24 victory at Tennessee as 2-point favorites to support its claim as a contender.

      Both teams bring back most of their defenses that were shredded by each other for more than 500 yards in a 45-33 Oklahoma victory last season. West Virginia put up 372 passing yards, 9.2 per attempt, in the loss and could attack Oklahoma vertically again.

      Mountaineers quarterback Skyler Howard is second in the nation in throwing for 10.9 yards per attempt. The Sooners demolished the Mountaineers on the ground last season with Samaje Perine racking up 242 yards and four touchdowns.

      But the sophomore Perine hasn’t backed up his considerable hype this season, rushing for 263 yards and 4.7 per carry through three games. West Virginia ranks in the top 10 nationally on defense in giving up 4 yards per play, but the competition must be considered.

      Pick: West Virginia plus-7 Georgia Southern and Maryland aren’t helpless enough to ignore a combined 83-point beatdown.

    • Wisconsin's Darius Hillary (5), Tanner McEvoy and Vince Biegel (47) stop Hawaii's Quinton Pedroza from scoring during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 26, 2015, in Madison, Wis.

      Iowa plus-7 at Wisconsin, over/under: 44.5; 9 a.m. on Big Ten Network

      The most crucial Big Ten West division matchup might be coming in the first weekend of conference play.

      That’s what the odds would suggest anyway. The Badgers came into the season as the favorite to reach the Big Ten Championship Game for the fourth time in five years with Iowa the West’s third choice, and Nebraska bridging the gap.

      The conference future odds are now off the board, but it’s apparent Iowa has taken a step forward with a 4-0 straight-up, 3-1 against the spread start. Nebraska, meanwhile, has moved back at 2-2 straight-up and against the spread.

      Iowa and Wisconsin are the top two Big Ten West teams by odds to win the national championship as both are 300-to-1 at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. Northwestern, 4-0 straight-up and 3-1 against the spread, isn’t listed as part of the field.

      The game between Iowa and Wisconsin will likely come down to which team can more efficiently stop the run, as both prefer bruising ground games that are averaging an identical 4.9 yards per carry.

      A green offensive line appeared to be hurting the Badgers’ backs until freshman Taiwan Deal broke out for 147 yards and two touchdowns in a 28-0 win over Hawaii last week. Iowa running back Jordan Canzeri has two 100-yard rushing games where he’s averaged better than five yards per touch in his last three outings.

      Pick: Iowa plus-7 Line is dead on in this one, so I’ll look to fade Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst.

    • In this Sept. 26, 2015, file photo, Texas Tech wide receiver Jakeem Grant (11) runs in for a touchdown after a reception in the first half of an NCAA college football game against TCU in Lubbock, Texas.

      Texas Tech plus-17 vs. Baylor at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, over/under: 87.5; 12:30 on ESPN2

      With Baylor and TCU not scheduled to square off in one of the most anticipated games of the year until Thanksgiving weekend, prepare for common-opponent evaluations each and every week.

      It’s already happened with SMU, which opened the season by losing to Baylor by 35 points as a 36-point underdog before only posting a 19-point margin as a 37-point underdog at TCU. Now it’s Texas Tech’s turn.

      The Bears will merely need to beat the Red Raiders to be more impressive than TCU’s last-second escape last week as a 7-point favorite. Baylor has a higher asking price for a few reasons.

      One, it doesn’t have to travel to Lubbock, Texas, like TCU with the game on a neutral field. Also, Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes is dealing with an undisclosed injury and questionable after accounting for more than 400 yards and three touchdowns against TCU.

      Baylor’s offense holds a rare triple crown at the moment in leading the nation in yards per play (10.2), yards per pass attempt (13.8) and yards per rushing attempt (8.1) in games against FBS opposition. Much attention is devoted to quarterback Seth Russell, who’s thrown for 995 yards and 15 touchdowns in three games.

      But running backs Shock Linwood, Terrence Williams and Johnny Jefferson have proven just as vital in gaining 903 yards and seven touchdowns.

      Pick: Baylor minus-17 The Bears’ defense is far superior to the Horned Frogs’ so the Red Raiders won’t be putting 600 yards of offense up regardless of who’s under center.

    • Alabama football coach Nick Saban gets angry with defensive back Tony Brown during Alabama football practice, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2015, at the Thomas-Drew Practice Fields in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (Vasha Hunt/AL.com via AP)

      Alabama plus-2 at Georgia, over/under: 53.5; 12:30 on CBS

      Win or lose, Alabama’s dynasty probably isn’t over.

      Bookmakers are taking a much more measured approach to the distinct possibility of a Nick Saban-coached team starting the SEC season 0-2. While a rash of obituaries for Alabama’s run of dominance sprung up nationally since it lost to Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide’s status hasn’t changed much in Las Vegas.

      There’s only one team they would be an underdog against on a neutral field — Ohio State. So what’s to explain the streak of 72 straight games as a favorite coming to an end?

      Georgia happens to be very good in its own right. The Bulldogs are almost unanimously a top-five power-rated team with a scoring differential of plus-128 through three games to the Tide’s plus-73.

      Their only perceived weakness coming into the year was at quarterback where Virginia transfer Greyson Lambert has stunningly transformed to lead the nation’s most efficient passing attack by Football Outsiders’ S&P metric. He hasn’t seen a defense like Alabama that’s allowing only 3.8 yards per play behind the deepest front in the country, though.

      Run-stuffers such as A’Shawn Robinson and Reggie Ragland are holding opponents to 2 yards per rushing attempt, which should present a problem even for Georgia running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Georgia’s front seven has been a little more penetrable at allowing 3.1 yards per rushing attempt, meaning Alabama could follow behind the legs of Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake.

      Pick: Georgia minus-2 This is just a game to sit back and enjoy without betting, but if pressed, the Bulldogs look poised to ascend to the SEC favorite.

    • Kansas State wide receiver Dominique Heath (4) celebrates a touchdown with teammates Luke Hayes (68) and Terrale Johnson (56) during overtime of an NCAA college football game against Louisiana Tech in Manhattan, Kan., Saturday, Sept. 19, 2015. Kansas State defeated Louisiana Tech 39-33 in triple overtime.

      Kansas State plus-8 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 49.5; 1:00 on Fox Sports 1

      Betting against either of these coaches has proven a bankroll-busting proposition.

      Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy is 69-52-3 against the spread for his career, only a few percentage points behind Kansas State’s Bill Snyder at 147-101-1. Some of the gap comes from when they’ve played each other, with Snyder’s teams going 4-1 against the spread versus Gundy.

      Five of the teams’ combined seven games this season have gone under the total, a clue to their improved defenses. The Wildcats and Cowboys are second and third in the Big 12, respectively, in giving up 4.2 and 4.4 yards per play.

      Oklahoma State is particularly stingy against the pass behind an experienced secondary boasting Jordan Sterns, Tre Flowers and Kevin Peterson. Kansas State has been hesitant to air out with Joe Hubener filling in at quarterback for the injured Jesse Ertz.

      The Wildcats’ running game broke out in a triple overtime victory over Louisiana Tech, however, with freshman Justin Silmon rushing for 114 yards on 24 carries.

      Oklahoma State’s run game has produced less fruitfully with 3.9 yards per carry, a trouble that could be exacerbated against Kansas State linebackers Elijah Lee and Will Davis.

      Pick: Kansas State plus-8 Since returning to coach the Wildcats, Snyder is 14-7 against the spread taking points on the road.

    • Coaches, players and fans cheer as Florida wide receiver Antonio Callaway (81) runs for a touchdown on a 63-yard pass play against Tennessee during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 26, 2015, in Gainesville, Fla. Florida won 28-27.

      Ole Miss minus-7 at Florida, over/under: 51.5; 4 p.m. on ESPN

      These are the SEC’s two most surprising undefeated teams given that they’ve both had to pull off an upset to set up a matchup of 4-0 teams.

      Ole Miss, of course, overcame a closing 9-point spread to stun Alabama 43-37 two weeks ago. Florida mounted a five-minute comeback with its win expectancy dipping to 5 percent to beat Tennessee 28-27 as a 1-point underdog last week.

      Gamblers prefer Ole Miss, which like Florida is 3-1 against the spread. The number opened at Ole Miss minus-7, but has jumped to 7.5 at most sports books.

      It’s not hard to figure out where the action came from when juxtaposing the two offenses. Led by juniors in former blue-chip quarterback Chad Kelly and All-American candidate receiver Laquon Tredwell, Ole Miss is almost a full yard per play better than Florida who’s leaning on freshmen in quarterback Will Grier and receiver Antonio Callaway. The defenses are equally ferocious, though most heralded in separate areas.

      Ole Miss is rigid in the middle with defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche and older brother Denzel Nkemdiche at linebacker, while Florida has a terrific pair of cornerbacks in Vernon Hargreaves III and Jalen Tabor.

      Working against the Rebels is history as they haven’t given points at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium since 1980. They’ve also failed in their last five attempts as road favorites in the SEC, with the last victory in the role coming in 2009.

      Pick: Ole Miss minus-7 Just not ready to buy Florida as a real contender yet.

    • Texas A&M wide receiver Christian Kirk, right, pulls in a pass for a touchdown as Arkansas defensive back Henre' Toliver (5) defends in overtime of an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2015, in Arlington, Texas. The Aggies won 28-21.

      Mississippi State plus-6.5 at Texas A&M, over/under: 63; 4:30 p.m. on SEC Network

      In contrast to the SEC game kicking off right before the one in College Station, Texas, these two teams have perfectly fulfilled their expectations through four games.

      It’s the rare point spread that hasn’t shifted at all since the Golden Nugget opened its game of the year lines in June. Two of Texas A&M’s last three games have fallen almost directly on the point spread.

      The Aggies came back to beat Arkansas 28-21 in overtime last week with point spreads ranging from minus-6.5 to minus-7.5. They also blew out Ball State 56-23 as 31-point favorites for a narrow cash.

      Mississippi State beat one line by a single point, hosting LSU as a 3-point underdog, in a 21-19 loss. The Bulldogs have covered in all three games since their opener with senior quarterback Dak Prescott showing progression as a passer.

      With teams limiting Prescott’s running opportunities, he’s relied on his arm to record 1,069 yards and seven touchdowns to no interceptions. Texas A&M quarterback Kyle Allen has arguably played even better with a more vertical attack yielding 952 yards and 11 touchdowns to two interceptions.

      Freshman wide receiver Christian Kirk has emerged as one of the most exciting athletes in the country with 442 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 24 receptions.

      Pick: Texas A&M minus-6.5 It’s tricky to rely too much on the eye test, but the Aggies have looked like the much better team.

    • UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen, center, walks off the field after a game against Virginia at the Rose Bowl, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2015, in Pasadena, Calif. UCLA won 34-16.

      Arizona State plus-14 at UCLA, over/under: 60; 4:30 on Fox

      Enthusiasm over UCLA has reached a fever pitch after its 56-30 victory at Arizona as 2-point favorites last week.

      Any hope for Arizona State was extinguished with a 42-14 home loss to USC as 6-point underdogs. The betting line on this game has spelled out these teams’ fluctuating fortunes.

      UCLA spent most of the summer as a 6-point favorite in this spot before leaping to 10 with Arizona State’s week 1 loss to Texas A&M. The Bruins re-opened at 13.5 on Sunday before the full two touchdowns began appearing around town.

      Despite all the acclaim, UCLA isn’t without its issues. Freshman quarterback Josh Rosen has been erratic in alternating marvelous performances with middling ones, and Arizona State has the most experienced secondary he’s faced.

      The Bruins have also proven vulnerable against the run, giving up 4.9 yards per rushing attempt. The rushing game is perhaps the one area where the Sundevils haven’t looked like a disappointment with Demario Richard averaging more than six yards per carry.

      The Sundevils are the last team in the Pac-12 without a single win against the spread, though it should get easier if their numbers keep inflating.

      Pick: Arizona State plus-14 A quarter of the blog’s losses this season have come picking games involving these two teams — with a 1-4 against the spread overall record — so not proceeding with much confidence.

    • Clemson's Shaq Lawson, top, tackles Appalachian State's Terrence Upshaw during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 12, 2015, in Clemson, S.C. Clemson won 41-10.

      Notre Dame plus-1 at Clemson, over/under: 53.5; 5:00 on ABC

      The biggest obstacle holding Clemson back from national championship contention this season was supposed to be a defense that lost almost everyone from last year.

      Through three games, the Tigers have shown no signs of drop-off. They’re in the nation’s top 10 at giving up just four yards per play and are the most efficient run-stopping team according to S&P.

      A run-stuffing opponent may have sounded like a problem for Notre Dame coming into the season, but the Irish have thrown the ball even better than they’ve rushed it. They’ve adjusted on the fly to quarterback DeShone Kizer, who took over for the injured Malik Zaire, and paired him with running back C.J. Prorise to field an extremely balanced offense.

      Clemson can boast a similar offensive identity, with quarterback Deshaun Watson in the top 20 for quarterback rating next to Wayne Gallman rushing for nearly six yards per carry.

      Each team has already survived one scare in a non-cover — Clemson beating Louisville 20-17 as a 5-point favorite and Notre Dame edging Virginia 34-27 as a 13.5-point favorite — but has otherwise cashed with ease in every game.

      While Clemson’s defense seems to have produced new stars in Shaq Lawson and Kevin Dodd, Notre Dame has lost three defensive starters to injury.

      The Irish have an unforeseen and overwhelming strength of their own in an offense that’s fifth in the nation at gaining 7.5 yards per play.

      Clemson minus-1 Getting the better team at home at less than a field goal? It’s such a bargain that it almost feels suspicious.

    Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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