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March 19, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 5 winners against the spread

NFL Games: Sept. 27

AP

Seattle Seahawks’ strong safety Kam Chancellor, lower left, huddles with his defensive teammates in the “Legion of Boom” before taking the field for warmups before an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2015, in Seattle. It was Chancellor’s first time back on the field following a contract holdout the first part of the season. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

Week 5: Seahawks at Bengals

Which side would you take in Seahawks at Bengals? (Poll consensus year to date: 3-1)
Bengals minus-3 — 58.8%
Seahawks plus-3 — 41.2%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

10/4/15: NFL Games

San Diego Chargers kicker Josh Lambo (2) celebrates his game-winning field goal against the Cleveland Browns during the second half in an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2015, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy) Launch slideshow »

The Arizona Cardinals’ tenure as the NFC West favorite lasted all of two weeks.

The Cardinals’ first loss, a 24-22 setback to the Rams as 7-point favorites last week, sent them falling from the top of the divisional futures betting board. Two-time defending NFC champions Seattle Seahawks, which sit at 2-2 on the season, are once again favored to win the West at a price of minus-160 (risking $1.60 to win $1), translating to a 56 percent likelihood.

The Cardinals, which currently sit in first place with a 3-1 record, are at plus-220 (risking $1 to win $2.20) for a 28 percent probability. Despite holding wins over both Seattle and Arizona, St. Louis is a distant third choice at plus-550.

San Francisco’s chances are microscopic at 50-to-1.

Those odds felt worth sharing since it’s unofficially NFC West week here at Talking Points. The pick’em series looking at every game against the spread inadvertently picked all four teams this week with three of them falling in the top category.

The Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams and 49ers will go a long way in determining whether the blog can post a second straight big week. At 10-4-1 against the spread, week 4 brought the best results of the year thus far.

The overall record now stands at 31-30-2 with the goal finishing anywhere above 50 percent given the difficulty of forcing a pick on every game.

Check below for this week’s picks, separated as always into three confidence categories with individual records attached. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas.

Plays (11-5)

Seattle Seahawks plus-3 at Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati has faced three of the nine worst defenses in the league, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and not a single great one during its 4-0 straight-up and against the spread start. That will change against Seattle, which was laying two points in this spot over the summer.

Arizona Cardinals minus-2.5 at Detroit Lions It’s a minor miracle Arizona lost to St. Louis last week in a game where it tallied an edge of more than 100 yards and almost entirely because of a 1-for-5 efficiency rate in the red zone. Arizona coach Bruce Arians is 9-2 against the spread off a loss in his career.

San Francisco 49ers plus-7 at New York Giants Failing to understand the overwhelming love for the Giants — they went from 80- to 25-to-1 to win the Super Bowl in the last two weeks — considering they are giving up .3 more yards than they are gaining per play. Also need to slow down with the complete hatred for the 49ers — they went from 100- to 500-to-1 to win the Super Bowl in the same span — knowing their three losses are all to teams ranked in the top six in DVOA.

Leans (11-10-1)

Philadelphia Eagles minus-4.5 vs. New Orleans Saints In a game otherwise full of mediocrity, Philadelphia’s defense stands out. Eagles linebackers Connor Barwin, DeMeco Ryans and Brandon Graham have helped completely shut down opponents’ run games, with the defense ranking second in DVOA against the rush, and are capable of attacking a still-ailing Drew Brees.

Washington Redskins plus-7.5 at Atlanta Falcons A fortunate plus-6 turnover margin bred out of an 80 percent fumble recovery rate can’t mask the issues with Atlanta’s defense, which is 27th in the NFL in giving up 6.1 yards per play, forever. Washington’s luck is more likely to go the other way as it’s minus-4 in turnover margin with a 42 percent fumble recovery rate behind a defense only allowing 5.4 yards per play.

Tennessee Titans plus-2.5 vs. Buffalo Bills Buffalo is the most banged-up team in the league, while Tennessee is fresh off a bye week. Not comfortable enough with the Bills yet to declare them worthy of giving points on the road.

Baltimore Ravens minus-6 vs. Cleveland Browns Hard to know what to expect on a week to week basis with Cleveland, which ranks 30th in Football Outsiders’ variance metric after a great performance that nearly netted an upset in San Diego. Slightly prefer a Baltimore team with 10 days to prepare that’s gone 13-1 straight-up, 8-6 against the spread versus Cleveland under coach John Harbaugh.

Oakland Raiders plus-5 vs. Denver Broncos Not in the market to lay points on the road with the Broncos until they figure out their anemic offense. Their undeniable defensive advantage may even be decreased this week with Oakland coach Jack Del Rio knowing the personnel better than anyone after serving as the unit’s coordinator the past three seasons.

Guesses (9-15)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus-3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars This might be the least wagered-on game of the season so far, with the betting public disinterested in a matchup between two downtrodden franchises. But Tampa Bay has played slightly better on both offense, gaining 5.3 yards per play to Jacksonville’s 5.2, and defense, giving up 4.9 yards per play to Jacksonville’s 5.2.

San Diego Chargers minus-3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Pittsburgh fans must pray for improvement, because Michael Vick’s 4.7 yards per pass attempt and 3.6 yards per rush in an overtime loss to Baltimore isn’t going to work long term. East coast teams playing in Pacific Standard Time are a notoriously unprofitable bet.

Houston Texans plus-1 vs. Indianapolis Colts When a line offers this little value, there’s promise in going contrarian. It’s a red flag when nearly 80 percent of the action is on a road favorite with an injured quarterback and a minus-21 point differential on the season.

Dallas Cowboys plus-9.5 vs. New England Patriots Speaking of contrarian home-underdog plays, it’s often games that everyone considers a lock that play out the other way. Brandon Weeden hasn’t performed as poorly as expected — his 76 percent completion rate and 9.3 yards per pass attempt are higher than Romo’s marks this season — and should at least keep Dallas within backdoor covering range late.

Kansas City Chiefs minus-9 vs. Chicago Bears Must give the Chiefs’ slew of alarming numbers, headlined by ranking 30th in defensive DVOA, somewhat of a pass considering their level of competition with three straight games against undefeated teams. Hard to imagine Kansas City running back Jamaal Charles not having his way against a feeble Chicago defensive front.

St. Louis Rams plus-9.5 at Green Bay Packers Packers’ offensive line showed constant fissures in allowing three sacks and numerous hurries of Aaron Rodgers against the 49ers. That’s not a good sign heading into a game against Aaron Donald, Robert Quinn and the NFL’s best defensive line.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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