Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 7 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Diagnosing the first losing week of the year in the official plays section of last week’s pick’em didn’t require genius on the level of Bill Walsh.

Talking Points needed to look no further than the quarterbacks. The blog counted on Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles and Buffalo’s E.J. Manuel for the top two picks in week 6 and received, in retrospect, justified results.

Bortles threw three interceptions in a 31-20 loss to Houston where his team opened as a 1-point underdog but closed as a 2.5-point favorite. Manuel mostly mastered the check down in averaging 6.2 yards per attempt during his team’s 34-21 loss to Cincinnati as 3.5-point underdogs.

The betting public takes a lot of grief — going straight contrarian is often considered one of sports betting’s best strategies — but there’s a reason gamblers usually stick with great quarterbacks. It’s not a bad approach.

NFLpickwatch.com reports the side with the better quarterback, as defined by QBR, has gone 50-34-6 against the spread so far this season. That’s something worth keeping in mind going forward with the pick’em.

The overall record stands at 44-42-5 against the spread picking every game this season after a 7-5-2 overall showing last week.

Check below for betting picks and analysis on every game this week, separated into three categories with attached records. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas.

Plays (13-7-2)

Kansas City Chiefs plus-2 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Chiefs had no business losing 16-10 to the Vikings as 3.5-point underdogs last week in a game where they were more efficient by 1.1 yards per play, giving them three borderline miraculous losses on the season. Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation is not a major concern as long as Kansas City is getting points, considering Ben Roethlisberger has a history of returning at less than 100 percent and turning in rough performances.

New York Jets plus-9.5 at New England Patriots Oddsmakers’ power ratings are spot-on in positioning the Patriots at the top of the NFL, but behind on upgrading the Jets into the NFL’s elite. New York is the fifth-ranked team in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings and second in the league in yards per play differential, meaning it shouldn’t get more than a touchdown on the betting line against any team.

Indianapolis Colts minus-4.5 vs. New Orleans Saints Lost in the comedy resulting from the most entertaining fake punt attempt of all-time was the fact that Indianapolis had an uncharacteristically sharp offensive game plan in its 34-27 loss to New England that included a 2-to-1 pass-to-run ratio. A similar strategy could lead to Andrew Luck sinking the Saints, which is worst in the NFL against the pass according to DVOA.

Detroit Lions plus-2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings It’s becoming painfully obvious that Teddy Bridgewater, who ranks 25th in the NFL in passer rating, isn’t ready to make the leap to turn Minnesota into contenders as quickly as some expected. Not comfortable laying points with a quarterback who’s gone 1-8 straight-up, though 5-3 against the spread, in road games.

Seattle Seahawks minus-6.5 at San Francisco 49ers The Seahawks may have collapsed in each of their last two games, but it’s telling that they had in excess of a 98 percent win probability in the fourth quarter against both undefeated teams. Now’s the time to buy relatively low against a 49ers team ranked dead-last in both DVOA and yards per play differential.

Leans (17-14-2)

Arizona Cardinals minus-7.5 vs. Baltimore Ravens For the second time this season, Arizona lost entirely because of a sloppy performance that included a minus-3 turnover differential last week at Pittsburgh. The Cardinals rebounded the first time with a hyper-focused 42-17 blowout over a struggling Lions team. Grab minus-7.5 now, because the number in this game is headed towards 10.

Carolina Panthers minus-3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles Metrics favor Philadelphia, but can’t shake feeling that home-field advantage counts for a little extra with the rare primetime game at Bank of America Stadium. Coach Ron Rivera’s unabashed aggressiveness has also produced Belichick-ian results, with the Panthers 12-2 in their last 14 games decided by one score or less.

Houston Texans plus-4.5 at Miami Dolphins Brian Hoyer appears to have gotten the Texans’ passing game on track by completing 48 of 67 attempts for 605 yards over the last two games. That might be trouble for a faltering Dolphins secondary allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt.

Oakland Raiders plus-4 at San Diego Chargers While Charles Woodson may not really have 10 seasons left, the 39-year-old has helped shore up Oakland’s biggest weakness of pass defense from last season. San Diego, which has failed to cover in seven of its last eight home games, is dealing with so many injuries that it can’t do anything effectively except pass.

Guesses (14-21)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-4 at Washington Redskins There’s a reason Washington hasn’t given points in 12 consecutive games or covered as a favorite since week 2 of last season. Tampa Bay’s defense has steadily improved — ranking fifth in the NFL in giving up 5.1 yards per play — to where they’ll threaten Kirk Cousins, who’s thrown two interceptions in four of six games this season.

Buffalo Bills minus-5.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars in London Bills are 3-3 straight-up and against the spread with all the wins coming against mediocre teams and all the losses against teams power-rated in the upper half of the league. They’ll relish an opportunity to meet the Jaguars after facing the fifth-toughest schedule in the league so far, per Football Outsiders, and won’t play down to the competition.

Cleveland Browns plus-5.5 at St. Louis Rams Behind the likes of Joe Thomas and Joel Bitonio, the Browns are uniquely equipped with an offensive line capable of battling the Rams’ vaunted defensive front. The betting market has clearly undervalued Cleveland, which has covered in four straight, while St. Louis has lost its last four games as a favorite straight-up.

Tennessee Titans plus-4.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons The market over-adjusted to Atlanta’s 4-0 straight-up and against the spread start, as seen in its back-to-back losses against the betting line. The issue apparently hasn’t corrected this week either as the spread rose from minus-3 on the look-ahead line despite the Falcons showing more of their defensive flaws in a 31-21 loss as 3.5-point favorites at New Orleans.

New York Giants minus-3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys In a game with a dense point spread where no particular angle stands out, here’s a spot to apply the aforementioned quarterback theorem. Take Eli Manning over Matt Cassel every time.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.