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March 29, 2024

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College football by the odds: Las Vegas picks and preview of Week 8

Michigan-Michigan State

Melanie Maxwell / The Ann Arbor News / MLive.com via AP

Michigan State defensive back Jalen Watts-Jackson, laying down in center, is surrounded by jubilant teammates Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015, after he recovered a fumbled snap on a punt in the closing seconds of the second half and returned it for a touchdown during an NCAA college football game against Michigan in Ann Arbor, Mich. Watts-Jackson lumbered 38 yards for a touchdown on the final play of the game, giving No. 7 Michigan State a shocking 27-23 win over No. 12 Michigan.

The reaction to Jalen Watts-Jackson’s touchdown return of a failed Michigan punt attempt to lead Michigan State to victory last Saturday was about as expected in local sports books — only louder.

Pandemonium raged on casino floors across town when the Spartans knocked off the Wolverines 27-23 despite never leading until no time remained on the clock. The atmosphere on the other side of the counter was more somber.

The betting public got the best of the bookmakers in the game with the most memorable finish of the year. Michigan State took all the late money, driving down the spread from Michigan minus-8 to minus-7 at kickoff.

The Spartans were already going to cover before Michigan punter Blake O’Neill’s snafu, but the unbelievable ending made the situation worse for the house. Sports books also had to pay out popular money line bets on Michigan State at as high as plus-250 (risking $1 to win $2.50).

The heavily bet underdog combined with an inordinate amount of favorites covering, including in seven of the 10 games picked in last week’s entry, to wreak havoc on the bookmakers. Talking Points felt the pain too, falling to a second straight 4-6 week picking Saturday’s 10 biggest games.

The overall record still stands at an acceptable 40-31-1 but it’s time to get back to the winning ways of the first five weeks to ensure finishing above 50 percent for the season. That’s short of profitability, but it's the goal for the blog given the toughness of forcing a pick on all the biggest games.

Check below for week 8 of college football by the odds.

    • Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson runs drills during warm ups before the start of an NCAA college football game against Georgia Tech Saturday, Oct. 10, 2015, in Clemson, S.C.

      Clemson minus-7 at Miami, over/under: 56; 9 a.m. on ABC

      Since everyone is rushing to condemn Al Golden, let’s take a classic gambler angle and go contrarian by pointing out one of his qualities: The embattled Miami coach is lethal as a home underdog.

      The Hurricanes are 4-1 against the spread when taking points at Sun Life Stadium under Golden with the only noncover coming in last year’s miraculous collapse to Florida State, where they lost 30-26 as 2.5-point underdogs. It’s nothing new for Golden either, as he went 8-2-1 as a home underdog at Temple before taking over at Miami.

      Clemson has somewhat quietly turned into an annual contender under coach Dabo Swinney with four straight double-digit win seasons. But playing on the road is what’s kept the Tigers from achieving more, as they’re just 12-8 straight up and 9-11 against the spread away from Death Valley in the span.

      The only time Clemson failed to cover the opening line this season was its lone road game at Louisville, where it eked out a 20-17 victory as 5-point favorites. Sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson was uneven in throwing two interceptions.

      He could have an easier time against a Miami defense ranked No. 93 against the pass by Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings. Clemson’s pass defense is also its most vulnerable unit, giving up 6.8 yards per attempt, so Watson’s fellow high school class of 2014 standout Brad Kaaya could have a signature day against an undefeated team.

      Pick: Clemson minus-7 Prefer to steer way clear of this game, but if pressed, the Tigers still seem the slightest bit undervalued.

    • Wisconsin's Corey Clement before an NCAA college football game against TroySaturday, Sept. 19, 2015, in Madison, Wis.

      Wisconsin minus-6.5 at Illinois, over/under: 45; 12:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network

      Wisconsin is failing to live up to its standards at the betting window.

      Over the past decade, the Badgers trail only Ohio State as the most profitable Big Ten program against the spread. They’re in danger of becoming the conference’s worst team to bet on in 2015, however, after a third straight noncover in a 24-7 win over Purdue as 21.5-point favorites last week dropped their record to 2-5 against the spread.

      Of course, it would help to get their best player back. Junior running back Corey Clement has missed the past six games — and only tallied eight carries in a season-opening 35-17 loss to Alabama — recovering from sports hernia surgery and comes in questionable again versus Illinois.

      Dare Ogunbowale and Taiwan Deal have held their own filling in for Clement, but a combined 4.7 yards per carry is well below average compared with a vintage Badgers’ attack. They’ll need Clement against a revelatory Illini defense that ranks seventh in the nation by S&P.

      Illinois’ season is the reverse of Wisconsin’s. The Illini look poised to break a four-year streak of losing against-the-spread records after falling to Iowa 29-20 in their last game but covering plus-10.5 to improve to 4-2 against the spread.

      Seniors Eaton Spence and V’Angelo Bentley make up one of the nation’s most underrated pair of cornerbacks.

      This amounts to an elimination game as the Badgers and Illini are tied for second in the Big Ten West division with a loss to leader Iowa apiece.

      Pick: Illinois plus-6.5 Will continue to look for spots to fade the Badgers, and this looks like an opportune one.

    • Indiana's Nate Sudfeld (7) in action during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Ohio State, Saturday, Oct. 3, 2015 in Bloomington, Ind.

      Indiana plus-16.5 at Michigan State, over/under: 63; 12:30 p.m. on ABC

      Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio has preached mental toughness as the determining factor that led to Watts-Jackson’s unforgettable return last week.

      His team will have the chance to prove its fortitude in that area against Indiana. The situational edge sets up perfectly against the Spartans, with the emotional drain coming off one of the biggest wins in school history.

      Michigan is always the biggest game of the season for Michigan State, and Dantonio has demonstrated chops in keeping his team focused in the past. The Spartans are 7-1 both straight up and against the spread in games the week after meeting the Wolverines under Dantonio.

      A spotty Indiana secondary that gives up 7.7 yards per pass attempt could also work in their favor. Senior quarterback Conor Cook, the Football Bowl Subdivision starter with the most wins all-time, appears to have finally found his groove behind a jelling offensive line and the emergence of a go-to guy.

      Senior receiver Aaron Burbridge has caught nine passes for more than 130 yards in back-to-back games, in which Cook has posted nearly 700 combined passing yards.

      Indiana has shown the danger of what can happen to a team after a trying contest. The Hoosiers took Ohio State to the brink in a 34-27 loss as 21-point favorites three weeks ago, but have failed to cover by more than a touchdown in back-to-back losses to Penn State and Rutgers since.

      Pick: Indiana plus-16.5 Not so much a play on a letdown as much as a play on Indiana deserving more credit on the betting line.

    • Alabama linebacker Reggie Ragland (19) pressures Texas A&M quarterback Kyle Allen (10) during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015, in College Station, Texas. Alabama won 41-23.

      Tennessee plus-15 at Alabama, over/under 54; 12:30 p.m. on CBS

      Don’t say no one ever bets against Alabama in Las Vegas.

      It’s not true, not this week at least. The most popularly bet team of the past several years sat as a 16-point favorite over Tennessee all across town a few days ago until the line gradually crept down.

      The Crimson Tide will almost surely go into the game with more support once the public gets involved over the next 24 hours, but the early shift is interesting nonetheless. It’s also reasonable.

      The Volunteers are coming off of a bye week while the Crimson Tide battled a tough opponent on the road in beating Texas A&M 41-23 as 5-point favorites. The spread was only Alabama minus-9 over Tennessee in the summer, and both teams have pretty much played to expectations.

      Tennessee may only be 3-3 straight up, but all of the losses came by a touchdown or less in games where it held a lead late in the fourth quarter. The Volunteers remain a top 25 team by any metric-based or oddsmakers’ power ratings.

      The Tide, on the other hand, are unanimously a top five team. Although the offense has produced at a lower-than-normal 5.6 yards per play clip, Alabama’s defense is arguably the best in the nation in giving up 3.9 yards per play.

      Blue-chip freshman cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick bookended scoring in the Texas A&M victory with interceptions returned for touchdowns. Tennessee junior quarterback Joshua Dobbs was turnover-prone in his first two seasons, but has an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season.

      Pick: Under 54 points Line looks tight, but total appears inflated.

    • Oklahoma defensive tackle Charles Walker (97) celebrates a tackle during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Kansas State in Manhattan, Kan., Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015.

      Texas Tech plus-14 at Oklahoma, over/under: 73.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2

      Baker Mayfield sits at 10-4 straight up, 8-6 against the spread as a college quarterback.

      It’s the Baker Bowl in Norman, Okla., as the former Texas Tech walk-on gets his shot at revenge against the school that cost him a year of eligibility with a transfer to Oklahoma. Mayfield, fourth in the nation in passer efficiency, should pour on the points against a Red Raiders defense ranked 116th in giving up 6.6 yards per play.

      The story of the game will likely come when the teams’ other units are on the field. Behind sophomore quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech is second to Baylor in most total offensive statistical categories in college football.

      The Bears proved their mettle by not slowing down in their first game against a real defense last week, beating West Virginia 62-38 as 21.5-point favorites. Texas Tech has a similar challenge here.

      Oklahoma sits in the top 10 in giving up only 4.1 yards per play with stars on every level of its defense. Senior linebacker Eric Striker has five sacks, while starting cornerbacks Zack Sanchez and Jordan Thomas have three interceptions apiece.

      Pick: Oklahoma minus-14 Another game I’d prefer to stay away from, but must lay the points if forced to play.

    • Arizona running back Nick Wilson (28) scores a touchdown against Oregon State during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2015, in Tucson, Ariz.

      Washington State plus-7.5 at Arizona, over/under: 74; 12:30 p.m. on Pac-12 Network

      Gamblers began ignoring Washington State after it suffered what still stands as the biggest upset of the year in a season-opening 24-17 loss to Portland State as 30-point favorites.

      That was a mistake, as the Cougars have raked in cash ever since by covering in four of five games. The only against-the-spread loss was in a 31-14 victory over Wyoming where Washington State laid 25.

      Sophomore quarterback Luke Faulk has progressively improved, culminating with more than 900 passing yards and 11 touchdowns to two interceptions the past two weeks in back-to-back wins over Oregon and Oregon State. Washington State could suddenly set up a showdown for the Pac-12 North lead next weekend at home with an upset over Arizona, which also appears to be peaking.

      The Wildcats have covered in two straight to break a two-game losing streak in which UCLA and Stanford beat them by a combined 64 points. Although they’re just 4-3 against the spread, the Wildcats are 4-1 in games where former Bishop Gorman great Anu Solomon takes the majority of the snaps.

      Solomon left the UCLA game with a concussion and missed the ensuing contest at Stanford. He’s thrown for nearly 600 yards and 8 yards per attempt since returning, but the early action is against Arizona.

      After opening as high as an 8-point favorite, many shops are down to Arizona minus-7. It’s reminiscent of last week when Arizona went from a 7.5- to a 6-point favorite at Colorado, where it prevailed 38-31 to beat the closing number but lose to the opener.

      Pick: Washington State plus-7.5 Way too many points in basically a coin-flip game.

    • Mississippi defensive back Tony Bridges, left, tries to bring down Memphis wide receiver Tevin Jones (87).

      Texas A&M plus-5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 64.5; 4 p.m. on ESPN

      The publicly loved road underdog sports books will want to avoid this week comes about 800 miles southwest of Ann Arbor, Mich.

      The Aggies have drawn lopsided support going into their contest against the Rebels, dragging the spread down a point. Bettors must find Texas A&M’s 41-23 loss to Alabama as 5-point underdogs last week less offensive than Ole Miss’ 37-24 loss at Memphis as 10.5-point favorites.

      The metrics don’t agree. Texas A&M was dreadful in committing four turnovers and getting outgained by more than a yard per play.

      The Aggies posted a below-average by Football Study Hall's percentile performance score, which measures how a team’s play would have done against an average opponent, compared with Ole Miss, which still came out positive. The Rebels outgained the Tigers on a per-play basis but lost the turnover battle and failed to run the ball with any effectiveness.

      They return the offense’s most valuable player and potential No. 1 NFL Draft pick in left tackle Laremy Tunsil, who’s coming off a suspension for accepting illegal benefits. He’s coming back at the perfect time as a battle with potential 2017 No. 1 NFL Draft pick Myles Garrett, a sophomore defensive end, will ensue.

      Ole Miss has gone just 2-2 straight up, 1-3 against the spread since its monumental upset at Alabama, whereas Texas A&M’s only blemish aside from the Crimson Tide loss was a noncover in a 44-27 win against UNR.

      Pick: Ole Miss minus-5 Failing to comprehend the love for the Aggies when the Rebels have an advantage on both sides of the ball.

    • Utah linebacker Jared Norris looks up from the sideline during the second half of his team's NCAA college football game against Arizona State on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015, in Salt Lake City. Utah won 34-18.

      Utah plus-3.5 at USC, over/under: 59; 4:30 p.m. on Fox

      Eavesdrop on a random sports book conversation this week, and it’s a favorite that this is the game getting discussed.

      And it’s not for the rumors linking Utah coach Kyle Whittingham to the vacancy at USC. It’s for the betting line.

      Many are having a tough time figuring out how a .500 USC team can give points to the Pac-12’s last standing undefeated squad, even at the Coliseum. But boil it down and USC is far more efficient on offense, gaining 7.2 yards per play to Utah’s 5.5, and only at a slight disadvantage on defense, giving up 5.3 yards per play to Utah’s 5.1.

      The Utes have stayed perfect by winning both of their games decided by less than a touchdown due to a positive turnover differential. For the season, Utah is second in the nation with a plus-four turnover margin.

      USC has performed oppositely in close games, as its three losses have come by a total of 25 points. After starting his career with 74 touchdowns to 13 interceptions, one-time Heisman candidate Cody Kessler has thrown two interceptions in losses each of the past two weeks.

      It’s forgivable without any receiver emerging other than star sophomore JuJu Smith-Schuster, but also problematic against ball-hawking defensive backs Marcus Williams and Dominique Hatfield.

      Pick: USC minus-3.5 Took a look at the over, but can’t pass up a chance to fade another public underdog.

    • Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett throws a pass against Northern Illinois on Saturday in Columbus, Ohio.

      Ohio State minus-21.5 at Rutgers, over/under: 64; 5 p.m. on ABC

      Sports books’ preseason favorite to win Ohio State’s quarterback derby has finally assimilated into the starting role more than halfway into the season.

      Senior Cardale Jones overcame 2-to-1 odds at offshore sports books — Nevada gaming regulations don’t permit such wagers in state — to start the season with the duties but coach Urban Meyer has finally seen enough. The Buckeyes are going back to sophomore J.T. Barrett, who sparked them in a redzone role to a 38-10 victory over Penn State last week as 19-point favorites.

      Barrett went 7-5 against the spread, 11-1 straight up as the starter before getting hurt last season. Jones retires to the bench sitting at 5-5 against the spread, 10-0 straight up.

      Truth is, either Barrett or Jones should be able to excel against one of the nation’s 10 worst pass defenses. Rutgers is giving up 8.7 yards per pass attempt, though its offense has shown some spunk in back-to-back covers.

      Many poked fun at Michigan State for a 31-24 escape at Rutgers as 12-point favorites two weeks ago, but the Scarlet Knights solidified their place as an improving team with a 55-52 victory at Indiana as a touchdown underdog. Rutgers sophomore Cody Laviano might be the best quarterback at High Point Solutions Stadium after throwing for 594 yards and six touchdowns to one interception in the past two games.

      Ohio State’s pass defense is stiff, though, in giving up 5.3 yards per attempt to rank fifth in the nation thanks to standouts Eli Apple and Tyvis Powell.

      Pick: Under 64 points Hard to imagine Rutgers being able to score on Ohio State, whose offense also remains difficult to trust.

    • Stanford wide receiver Francis Owusu, right, catches a touchdown pass behind the back of UCLA defensive back Jaleel Wadood during the second half of an NCAA college football game Thursday, Oct. 15, 2015, Stanford, Calif.

      Washington plus-19 at Stanford, over/under: OFF; 7:30 p.m. on ESPN

      After its baffling loss to Northwestern in week 1, Stanford rose to 500-to-1 to win the college football playoff at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

      Now the Cardinal are 14-to-1 and drawing more hype daily on their chances for inclusion in the four-team field. It’s hard for fans not to be excited after back-to-back blowout wins and covers with 55-plus points against UCLA and Arizona.

      Sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey has entered the group of Heisman contenders as a 30-to-1 eighth choice after averaging nearly 10 yards per carry in the two wins. Junior receiver Francis Owusu may have clinched catch of the year with his touchdown reception trapping the ball on a defender’s back.

      Washington has surprised just as much as Stanford. The Huskies are second to the Cardinal, 5-1 against the spread, in the Pac-12 in profitability with a 4-2 against the spread.

      They’re two wins away from topping their over/under season win total of 4.5 with a 3-3 straight-up record and could be favored in at least three and maybe even four remaining games. No one’s been able to bet either team all week, though.

      The game stayed off betting boards until Friday morning with Washington close-lipped on the severity of freshman quarterback Jake Browning’s shoulder injury. But most of the Huskies’ success has come behind a defense allowing 4.7 yards per play.

      Browning’s improving but still erratic play, including six touchdowns to five interceptions, means the drop-off to redshirt freshman backup K.J. Carta-Samuels may not prove too severe.

      Pick: Washington plus-19 Not looking to step in front of Stanford right now, but the line is a few too points too high.

    Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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